Modeling Climate Impacts on the Agricultural Sector

Figure 3.1

International Food Policy Research Institute
Gerald Nelson

This figure appears in chapter 3 of the Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2015 report.

This graph shows projected impacts of climate change on crop productivity (darker blue) and related agricultural and economic responses. Black dots indicate the average percent change in each variable by 2050, relative to no climate change; the height of each column shows the range of results across climate, crop, and economic models. These results represent global averages for major field crops including wheat, rice, coarse grains, and oil seeds. (Credit: Adapted from Nelson et al., 2014, PNAS)

When citing this figure, please reference Nelson, G. C., et al. (2014) Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks. PNAS, 111, 9, 3274-3279. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222465110. Adapted by Ron Sands (U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service) and USGCRP.

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This figure was submitted on December 16, 2013.

This figure cites Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks .

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