--- attributes: ~ caption: 'The NMME (yellow column) is a seasonal forecasting system that combines individual models (purple columns N1-N6) to produce more accurate predictions of climate. In forecasts of precipitation (top two panels) and temperature (bottom two panels)— key factors for predicting drought—the NMME performs better than any of the individual models. The NMME’s better performance is indicated by the heights of the bars, which show performance relative to a reference forecast. (Credit: Adapted from results by E. Wood, Princeton University)' chapter: description: ~ display_name: 'Chapter 3: Leveraging Global Change Research for Societal Needs' doi: ~ identifier: leveraging-global-change-research-societal-needs number: 3 report_identifier: usgcrp-ocpfy2015 sort_key: 30 title: Leveraging Global Change Research for Societal Needs url: ~ chapter_identifier: leveraging-global-change-research-societal-needs cited_by: [] contributors: - display_name: 'Contributor : Eric F. Wood (Princeton University) ' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/contributor/4301.yaml id: 4301 organization: country_code: US display_name: Princeton University identifier: princeton-university name: Princeton University organization_type_identifier: academic type: organization url: http://www.princeton.edu organization_uri: /organization/princeton-university person: display_name: Eric F. Wood first_name: Eric F. id: 2395 last_name: Wood middle_name: ~ orcid: ~ type: person url: https://www.princeton.edu/cee/people/display_person/?netid=efwood person_id: 2395 person_uri: /person/2395 role_type_identifier: contributor uri: /contributor/4301 create_dt: ~ description: 'The NMME (yellow column) is a seasonal forecasting system that combines individual models (purple columns N1-N6) to produce more accurate predictions of climate. In forecasts of precipitation (top two panels) and temperature (bottom two panels)— key factors for predicting drought—the NMME performs better than any of the individual models. The NMME’s better performance is indicated by the heights of the bars, which show performance relative to a reference forecast. (Credit: Adapted from results by E. Wood, Princeton University)' display_name: '3.4: Better Seasonal Forecasts with a Multi-Model Ensemble' files: - display_name: NMME-comparison-graph-simplified.jpg file: 96/ab/ffb910cbb1952f35752471d84cf7/NMME-comparison-graph-simplified.jpg href: http://data.globalchange.gov/assets/96/ab/ffb910cbb1952f35752471d84cf7/NMME-comparison-graph-simplified.jpg identifier: 4e348048-40f6-48c3-908f-5a220ebb675e landing_page: ~ location: ~ mime_type: image/jpeg sha1: 168c0b5a3e6e52d0669c59a5b88ad4fc931fdd98 size: 567320 thumbnail: 96/ab/ffb910cbb1952f35752471d84cf7/.thumb-4e348048-40f6-48c3-908f-5a220ebb675e.png thumbnail_href: http://data.globalchange.gov/assets/96/ab/ffb910cbb1952f35752471d84cf7/.thumb-4e348048-40f6-48c3-908f-5a220ebb675e.png type: file uri: /file/4e348048-40f6-48c3-908f-5a220ebb675e url: http://data.globalchange.gov/assets/96/ab/ffb910cbb1952f35752471d84cf7/NMME-comparison-graph-simplified.jpg href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/usgcrp-ocpfy2015/chapter/leveraging-global-change-research-societal-needs/figure/better-seasonal-forecasts-multi-model-ensemble.yaml identifier: better-seasonal-forecasts-multi-model-ensemble images: - attributes: ~ create_dt: ~ description: ~ identifier: a267544c-72f7-4fb7-8b2c-71dd7ed48cf2 lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ position: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Better Seasonal Forecasts with a Multi-Model Ensemble url: ~ usage_limits: 'Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. ' kindred_figures: [] lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 4 parents: [] references: [] report: display_name: 'Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2015' report_identifier: usgcrp-ocpfy2015 source_citation: 'Eric Wood, Princeton (2014). Adapted by Dan Barrie (NOAA)' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Better Seasonal Forecasts with a Multi-Model Ensemble type: figure uri: /report/usgcrp-ocpfy2015/chapter/leveraging-global-change-research-societal-needs/figure/better-seasonal-forecasts-multi-model-ensemble url: ~ usage_limits: 'Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. '