--- - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Objectives. We sought to project future impacts of climate change on summer heat-related premature deaths in the New York City metropolitan region.; Methods. Current and future climates were simulated over the northeastern United States with a global-to-regional climate modeling system. Summer heat-related premature deaths in the 1990s and 2050s were estimated by using a range of scenarios and approaches to modeling acclimatization (e.g., increased use of air conditioning, gradual physiological adaptation).; Results. Projected regional increases in heat-related premature mortality by the 2050s ranged from 47% to 95%, with a mean 70% increase compared with the 1990s. Acclimatization effects reduced regional increases in summer heat-related premature mortality by about 25%. Local impacts varied considerably across the region, with urban counties showing greater numbers of deaths and smaller percentage increases than less-urbanized counties.; Conclusions. Although considerable uncertainty exists in climate forecasts and future health vulnerability, the range of projections we developed suggests that by midcentury, acclimatization may not completely mitigate the effects of climate change in the New York City metropolitan region, which would result in an overall net increase in heat-related premature mortality.' Alternate Journal: Am J Public Health Author: "Knowlton, K.\rLynn, B.\rGoldberg, R. A.\rRosenzweig, C.\rHogrefe, C.\rRosenthal, J. K.\rKinney, P. L." Author Address: 'Knowlton, K; Columbia Univ, Nat Resources Drf Council, 40 W 20th St, New York, NY 10011 USA; Columbia Univ, Nat Resources Drf Council, 40 W 20th St, New York, NY 10011 USA; Columbia Univ, Mailman Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth Sci, New York, NY USA; Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY USA; SUNY Albany, Atmospher Sci Res Ctr, Albany, NY 12222 USA; Columbia Univ, Grad Sch Architecture Planning & Preservat, New York, NY USA' DOI: 10.2105/Ajph.2006.102947 Date: Nov ISSN: 0090-0036 Issue: 11 Journal: American Journal of Public Health Keywords: eastern united-states; us cities; air-pollution; time-series; temperature; wave; chicago; deaths; health; model Language: English Notes: 225AJ; Times Cited:29; Cited References Count:47 Pages: 2028-2034 Title: Projecting heat-related mortality impacts under a changing climate in the New York City region URL: http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdf/10.2105/AJPH.2006.102947 Volume: 97 Year: 2007 _chapter: '["Ch. 16: Northeast FINAL"]' _record_number: 1339 _uuid: 04f852ec-7b1e-4fd0-a517-283b25468694 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.2105/Ajph.2006.102947 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/04f852ec-7b1e-4fd0-a517-283b25468694.yaml identifier: 04f852ec-7b1e-4fd0-a517-283b25468694 uri: /reference/04f852ec-7b1e-4fd0-a517-283b25468694 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Barreca, Alan I.' DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2011.07.004 ISSN: 1096-0449 Issue: 1 Journal: Journal of Environmental Economics and Management Pages: 19-34 Title: 'Climate change, humidity, and mortality in the United States' Volume: 63 Year: 2012 _chapter: Ch2 _record_number: 17586 _uuid: 14e7930d-648f-4a7a-a41d-2eb61b7f9894 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.jeem.2011.07.004 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/14e7930d-648f-4a7a-a41d-2eb61b7f9894.yaml identifier: 14e7930d-648f-4a7a-a41d-2eb61b7f9894 uri: /reference/14e7930d-648f-4a7a-a41d-2eb61b7f9894 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Honda, Yasushi; Kondo, Masahide; McGregor, Glenn; Kim, Ho; Guo, Yue-Leon; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Yoshikawa, Minoru; Oka, Kazutaka; Takano, Saneyuki; Hales, Simon; Kovats, R. Sari' DOI: 10.1007/s12199-013-0354-6 ISSN: 1347-4715 Issue: 1 Journal: Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine Pages: 56-63 Title: Heat-related mortality risk model for climate change impact projection Volume: 19 Year: 2014 _chapter: Ch2 _record_number: 16113 _uuid: 18e73954-8b13-4c4a-acd1-9687b8d811d2 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s12199-013-0354-6 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/18e73954-8b13-4c4a-acd1-9687b8d811d2.yaml identifier: 18e73954-8b13-4c4a-acd1-9687b8d811d2 uri: /reference/18e73954-8b13-4c4a-acd1-9687b8d811d2 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Kinney, P.L.\rPascal, M.\rVautard, R.\rLaaidi, K." ISSN: 1953-8030 Journal: Bulletin Epidemiologique Hebdomadaire Pages: 5-7 Title: 'Winter mortality in a changing climate: Will it go down?' Volume: 12-13 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 9: Human Health FINAL"]' _record_number: 4208 _uuid: 2cee671a-e17f-4e66-b37d-0c29a35f7210 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/winter-mortality-in-a-changing-climate-will-it-go-down href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/2cee671a-e17f-4e66-b37d-0c29a35f7210.yaml identifier: 2cee671a-e17f-4e66-b37d-0c29a35f7210 uri: /reference/2cee671a-e17f-4e66-b37d-0c29a35f7210 - attrs: .publisher: International Association for Great Lakes Research .reference_type: 0 Abstract: "ABSTRACT Over the coming century, climate change is projected to increase both mean and extreme temperatures as heat waves become more frequent, intense, and long-lived. The city of Chicago has already experienced a number of severe heat waves, with a 1995 event estimated to be responsible for nearly 800 deaths. Here, future projections under SRES higher (A1FI) and lower (B1) emission scenarios are used to estimate the frequency of 1995-like heat wave events in terms of both meteorological characteristics and impacts on heat-related mortality. Before end of century, 1995-like heat waves could occur every other year on average under lower emissions and as frequently as three times per year under higher. Annual average mortality rates are projected to equal those of 1995 under lower emissions and reach twice 1995 levels under higher. An “analog city” analysis, transposing the weather conditions from the European Heat Wave of 2003 (responsible for 70,000 deaths across Europe) to the city of Chicago, estimates that if a similar heat wave were to occur over Chicago, more than ten times the annual average number of heat-related deaths could occur in just a few weeks. Climate projections indicate that an EHW-type heat wave could occur in Chicago by mid-century. Between mid- and end-of-century, there could be as many as five such events under lower, and twenty-five under higher emissions. These results highlight the importance of both preventive mitigation and responsive adaptation strategies in reducing the vulnerability of Chicago's population to climate change-induced increases in extreme heat." Accession Number: 407 Author: "Hayhoe, K.\rSheridan, S.\rKalkstein, L.\rGreene, S." DOI: 10.1016/j.jglr.2009.12.009 ISSN: 0380-1330 Issue: Supplement 2 Journal: Journal of Great Lakes Research Pages: 65-73 Title: 'Climate change, heat waves, and mortality projections for Chicago' URL: http://www.bioone.org/doi/pdf/10.1016/j.jglr.2009.12.009 Volume: 36 Year: 2010 _chapter: '["Ch. 9: Human Health FINAL"]' _record_number: 339 _uuid: 315edcf2-107b-449d-b694-5d5a3c87ebbb reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.jglr.2009.12.009 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/315edcf2-107b-449d-b694-5d5a3c87ebbb.yaml identifier: 315edcf2-107b-449d-b694-5d5a3c87ebbb uri: /reference/315edcf2-107b-449d-b694-5d5a3c87ebbb - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Deschênes, O.\rGreenstone, M." DOI: 10.1257/app.3.4.152 ISSN: 1945-7782 Issue: 4 Journal: 'American Economic Journal: Applied Economics' Pages: 152-185 Title: 'Climate change, mortality, and adaptation: Evidence from annual fluctuations in weather in the US' Volume: 3 Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 4: Energy Supply and Use FINAL"]' _record_number: 343 _uuid: 48d08f16-c2bb-4591-831d-22c262d869fb reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1257/app.3.4.152 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/48d08f16-c2bb-4591-831d-22c262d869fb.yaml identifier: 48d08f16-c2bb-4591-831d-22c262d869fb uri: /reference/48d08f16-c2bb-4591-831d-22c262d869fb - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Wu, Jianyong; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S.; Johnson, Brent A.; Huang, Cheng; Kim, Young-Min; Liu, Yang' DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1306670 ISSN: 1552-9924 Issue: 1 Journal: Environmental Health Perspectives Notes: 'Ch2, 3, 10' Pages: 10-16 Title: Estimation and uncertainty analysis of impacts of future heat waves on mortality in the eastern United States Volume: 122 Year: 2014 _chapter: 'Ch2, 3, 10' _record_number: 16125 _uuid: 49407e4c-351c-4240-9c91-50e36a83849d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1289/ehp.1306670 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/49407e4c-351c-4240-9c91-50e36a83849d.yaml identifier: 49407e4c-351c-4240-9c91-50e36a83849d uri: /reference/49407e4c-351c-4240-9c91-50e36a83849d - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Barnett, A. G.\rHajat, S.\rGasparrini, A.\rRocklöv, J." DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2011.12.010 Epub Date: 2012 Jan 4 ISSN: 0013-9351 Issue: 0 Journal: Environmental Research Keywords: "Climate\rMortality\rWeather\rTemperature\rHeat waves" Pages: 218-224 Title: Cold and heat waves in the United States Volume: 112 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 9: Human Health FINAL"]' _record_number: 4492 _uuid: 5b3848ca-bd86-4549-a937-dea708342827 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.envres.2011.12.010 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/5b3848ca-bd86-4549-a937-dea708342827.yaml identifier: 5b3848ca-bd86-4549-a937-dea708342827 uri: /reference/5b3848ca-bd86-4549-a937-dea708342827 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Jackson, J.E.\rYost, M.G.\rKarr, C.\rFitzpatrick, C.\rLamb, B.K.\rChung, S.H.\rChen, J.\rAvise, J.\rRosenblatt, R.A.\rFenske, R.A." DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-9852-3 ISSN: 0165-0009 Issue: 1-2 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 159-186 Title: 'Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: Projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution' Volume: 102 Year: 2010 _chapter: '["Ch. 9: Human Health FINAL"]' _record_number: 1353 _uuid: 6168163c-2f61-4593-810e-fe389a8f7834 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-010-9852-3 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/6168163c-2f61-4593-810e-fe389a8f7834.yaml identifier: 6168163c-2f61-4593-810e-fe389a8f7834 uri: /reference/6168163c-2f61-4593-810e-fe389a8f7834 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: "Luber, George\rKnowlton, Kim\rBalbus, John\rFrumkin, Howard\rHayden, Mary\rHess, Jeremy\rMcGeehin, Michael\rSheats, Nicky\rBacker, Lorraine\rBeard, C. Ben\rEbi, Kristie L.\rMaibach, Edward\rOstfeld, Richard S.\rWiedinmyer, Christine\rZielinski-Gutiérrez, Emily\rZiska, Lewis" Book Title: 'Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment' DOI: 10.7930/J0PN93H5 Editor: 'Melillo, Jerry M.; Richmond, Terese (T.C.); Yohe, Gary W.' Pages: 220-256 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Reviewer: 61fd6e32-63d0-4f5a-bbbb-f68262376a37 Title: 'Ch. 9: Human Health' URL: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/human-health Year: 2014 _chapter: '["Ch. 0: About this Report FINAL"]' _record_number: 4720 _uuid: 61fd6e32-63d0-4f5a-bbbb-f68262376a37 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/nca3/chapter/human-health href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/61fd6e32-63d0-4f5a-bbbb-f68262376a37.yaml identifier: 61fd6e32-63d0-4f5a-bbbb-f68262376a37 uri: /reference/61fd6e32-63d0-4f5a-bbbb-f68262376a37 - attrs: .publisher: American Chemical Society .reference_type: 0 Access Date: 2013/11/04 Author: "Voorhees, A. Scott\rFann, Neal\rFulcher, Charles\rDolwick, Patrick\rHubbell, Bryan\rBierwagen, Britta\rMorefield, Philip" DOI: 10.1021/es102820y Date: 2011/02/15 ISSN: 0013-936X Issue: 4 Journal: Environmental Science & Technology Pages: 1450-1457 Title: 'Climate change-related temperature impacts on warm season heat mortality: A proof-of-concept methodology using BenMAP' Volume: 45 Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 9: Human Health FINAL"]' _record_number: 4490 _uuid: 638cccd2-9ae4-469e-a1d7-6123abec2780 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1021/es102820y href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/638cccd2-9ae4-469e-a1d7-6123abec2780.yaml identifier: 638cccd2-9ae4-469e-a1d7-6123abec2780 uri: /reference/638cccd2-9ae4-469e-a1d7-6123abec2780 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Bobb, Jennifer F.; Peng, Roger D.; Bell, Michelle L.; Dominici, Francesca' DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1307392 ISSN: 1552-9924 Issue: 8 Journal: Environmental Health Perspectives Pages: 811-816 Title: Heat-related mortality and adaptation to heat in the United States Volume: 122 Year: 2014 _chapter: Ch2 _record_number: 17588 _uuid: 6b3cd0ec-1e3e-42e8-ad82-5c12ed7ab0e8 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1289/ehp.1307392 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/6b3cd0ec-1e3e-42e8-ad82-5c12ed7ab0e8.yaml identifier: 6b3cd0ec-1e3e-42e8-ad82-5c12ed7ab0e8 uri: /reference/6b3cd0ec-1e3e-42e8-ad82-5c12ed7ab0e8 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Kinney, Patrick L.' DOI: 10.3390/ijerph10126734 ISSN: 1660-4601 Issue: 12 Journal: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health Pages: 6734-6747 Title: Projected heat-related mortality in the U.S. urban northeast Volume: 10 Year: 2013 _chapter: Ch2 _record_number: 17614 _uuid: 97024533-f9d5-4ee9-abb6-56733744a4d0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.3390/ijerph10126734 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/97024533-f9d5-4ee9-abb6-56733744a4d0.yaml identifier: 97024533-f9d5-4ee9-abb6-56733744a4d0 uri: /reference/97024533-f9d5-4ee9-abb6-56733744a4d0 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Li, Tiantian\rHorton, Radley M.\rKinney, Patrick L." DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1902 ISSN: 1758-678X Issue: 8 Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 717-721 Short Title: 'Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature- related deaths for Manhattan, New York' Title: 'Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths for Manhattan, New York' Type of Article: Letter Volume: 3 Year: 2013 _chapter: '["Ch. 9: Human Health FINAL","Ch. 16: Northeast FINAL","Overview"]' _record_number: 4000 _uuid: 9e1170c5-e68e-4aab-bf70-33e4b69e46bf reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate1902 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/9e1170c5-e68e-4aab-bf70-33e4b69e46bf.yaml identifier: 9e1170c5-e68e-4aab-bf70-33e4b69e46bf uri: /reference/9e1170c5-e68e-4aab-bf70-33e4b69e46bf - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Ostro, B.\rRauch, S.\rGreen, S." DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2011.08.013 ISSN: 0013-9351 Issue: 8 Journal: Environmental Research Pages: 1258-1264 Title: Quantifying the health impacts of future changes in temperature in California Volume: 111 Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 20: Southwest FINAL"]' _record_number: 2382 _uuid: a5c47ded-9ce3-4075-b4d4-c5c3ce9036cd reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.envres.2011.08.013 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/a5c47ded-9ce3-4075-b4d4-c5c3ce9036cd.yaml identifier: a5c47ded-9ce3-4075-b4d4-c5c3ce9036cd uri: /reference/a5c47ded-9ce3-4075-b4d4-c5c3ce9036cd - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Peng, Roger D.\rBobb, Jennifer F.\rTebaldi, Claudia\rMcDaniel, Larry\rBell, Michelle L.\rDominici, Francesca" DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1002430 Date: May ISSN: 0091-6765 Issue: 5 Journal: Environmental Health Perspectives Pages: 701-706 Title: Toward a quantitative estimate of future heat wave mortality under global climate change URL: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3094424/ Volume: 119 Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 9: Human Health FINAL","Ch. 18: Midwest FINAL"]' _record_number: 2461 _uuid: b3760069-032c-4bb6-9d34-9771c08f0171 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1289/ehp.1002430 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/b3760069-032c-4bb6-9d34-9771c08f0171.yaml identifier: b3760069-032c-4bb6-9d34-9771c08f0171 uri: /reference/b3760069-032c-4bb6-9d34-9771c08f0171 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Isaksen, Tania Busch; Yost, Michael; Hom, Elizabeth; Fenske, Richard' DOI: 10.1515/reveh-2014-0029 ISSN: 0048-7554 Issue: 1-2 Journal: Reviews on Environmental Health Pages: 119-123 Title: Projected health impacts of heat events in Washington State associated with climate change Volume: 29 Year: 2014 _chapter: Ch2 _record_number: 17601 _uuid: ba31f764-b679-480d-adc9-a66cd2354c10 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1515/reveh-2014-0029 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/ba31f764-b679-480d-adc9-a66cd2354c10.yaml identifier: ba31f764-b679-480d-adc9-a66cd2354c10 uri: /reference/ba31f764-b679-480d-adc9-a66cd2354c10 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Medina-Ramón, M.\rSchwartz, J." DOI: 10.1136/oem.2007.033175 ISSN: 1470-7926 Issue: 12 Journal: Occupational and Environmental Medicine Pages: 827-833 Title: 'Temperature, temperature extremes, and mortality: A study of acclimatisation and effect modification in 50 US cities' URL: http://oem.bmj.com/content/64/12/827.full.pdf+html Volume: 64 Year: 2007 _chapter: '["Ch. 9: Human Health FINAL","Overview"]' _record_number: 1978 _uuid: bdea0759-701d-4183-9966-cee3ce977e08 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1136/oem.2007.033175 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/bdea0759-701d-4183-9966-cee3ce977e08.yaml identifier: bdea0759-701d-4183-9966-cee3ce977e08 uri: /reference/bdea0759-701d-4183-9966-cee3ce977e08 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Mills, David; Schwartz, Joel; Lee, Mihye; Sarofim, Marcus; Jones, Russell; Lawson, Megan; Duckworth, Michael; Deck, Leland' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1154-8 ISSN: 1573-1480 Issue: 1 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 83-95 Title: Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas in the United States Volume: 131 Year: 2015 _chapter: Ch2 _record_number: 17612 _uuid: d4613be9-fc30-44b5-afdb-e6d6daf4b490 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-014-1154-8 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/d4613be9-fc30-44b5-afdb-e6d6daf4b490.yaml identifier: d4613be9-fc30-44b5-afdb-e6d6daf4b490 uri: /reference/d4613be9-fc30-44b5-afdb-e6d6daf4b490 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Ebi, Kristie L.; Mills, David' DOI: 10.1002/wcc.211 ISSN: 1757-7799 Issue: 3 Journal: 'Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change' Notes: 'Ch2,3' Pages: 203-212 Title: 'Winter mortality in a warming climate: A reassessment' Volume: 4 Year: 2013 _chapter: 'Ch2,3' _record_number: 16472 _uuid: de50864a-6264-4114-bef0-399a41bc44a8 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/wcc.211 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/de50864a-6264-4114-bef0-399a41bc44a8.yaml identifier: de50864a-6264-4114-bef0-399a41bc44a8 uri: /reference/de50864a-6264-4114-bef0-399a41bc44a8