Projected Changes in Temperature-Related Death Rates

Figure 2.3

Stratus Consulting
Alexis St. Juliana

This figure appears in chapter 2 of the The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment report.

This figure shows the projected decrease in death rates due to warming in colder months (October–March, top left), the projected increase in death rates due to warming in the warmer months (April–September, top right), and the projected net change in death rates (combined map, bottom), comparing results for 2100 to those for a 1990 baseline period in 209 U.S. cities. These results are from one of the two climate models (GFDL–CM3 scenario RCP6.0) studied in Schwartz et al. (2015). In the study, mortality data for a city is based on county-level records, so the borders presented reflect counties corresponding to the study cities. Geographic variation in the death rates are due to a combination of differences in the amount of projected warming and variation in the relationship between deaths and temperatures derived from the historical health and temperature data. These results are based on holding the 2010 population constant in the analyses, with no explicit assumptions or adjustment for potential future adaptation. Therefore, these results reflect only the effect of the anticipated change in climate over time. (Figure source: Schwartz et al. 2015)e805bfdc-c4c2-43a0-b2e5-5a66945c74e4

The time range for this figure is January 01, 1975 (00:00 AM) to December 31, 2100 (23:59 PM).

This figure was created on October 31, 2014.

The spatial range for this figure is 24.50° to 49.38° latitude, and -124.80° to -66.95° longitude.

This figure was derived from Projections of temperature-attributable premature deaths in 209 U.S. cities using a cluster-based Poisson approach .

References :

• Projections of temperature-attributable premature deaths in 209 U.S. cities using a cluster-based Poisson approach (e805bfdc)

This figure is composed of these images :