Projected Changes in Deaths in U.S. Cities by Season

Figure 2.4

Stratus Consulting
Alexis St. Juliana

This figure appears in chapter 2 of the The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment report.

This figure shows the projected increase in deaths due to warming in the summer months (hot season, April–September), the projected decrease in deaths due to warming in the winter months (cold season, October–March), and the projected net change in deaths for the 209 U.S. cities examined. These results compare projected deaths for future reporting years to results for the year 1990 while holding the population constant at 2010 levels and without any quantitative adjustment for potential future adaptation, so that temperature–death relationships observed in the last decade of the available data (1997–2006) are assumed to remain unchanged in projections over the 21st century. With these assumptions, the figure shows an increasing health benefit in terms of reduced deaths during the cold season (October–March) over the 21st century from warming temperatures, while deaths during the hot season (April–September) increase. Overall, the additional deaths from the warming in the hot season exceed the reduction in deaths during the cold season, resulting in a net increase in deaths attributable to temperature over time as a result of climate change. The baseline and future reporting years are based on 30-year periods where possible, with the exception of 2100: 1990 (1976–2005), 2030 (2016–2045), 2050 (2036–2065), and 2100 (2086–2100). (Figure source: adapted from Schwartz et al. 2015)e805bfdc-c4c2-43a0-b2e5-5a66945c74e4

Other figures containing images in this figure : 3: Projected Changes in Deaths in U.S Cities by Season

The time range for this figure is January 01, 2030 (00:00 AM) to December 31, 2100 (23:59 PM).

This figure was created on October 31, 2014.

The spatial range for this figure is 24.50° to 49.38° latitude, and -124.80° to -66.95° longitude.

This figure was derived from Projections of temperature-attributable premature deaths in 209 U.S. cities using a cluster-based Poisson approach .

References :

• Projections of temperature-attributable premature deaths in 209 U.S. cities using a cluster-based Poisson approach (e805bfdc)

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