@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

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   dcterms:identifier "increased-exposure-to-extreme-events";
   gcis:findingNumber "4.1"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "Health impacts associated with climate-related changes in exposure to extreme events include death, injury, or illness; exacerbation of underlying medical conditions; and adverse effects on mental health [High Confidence]. Climate change will increase exposure risk in some regions of the United States due to projected increases in the frequency and/or intensity of drought, wildfires, and flooding related to extreme precipitation and hurricanes [Medium Confidence]."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/extreme-events>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "The chapter was developed through technical discussions of relevant evidence and expert deliberation of the report authors at several workshops, teleconferences, and email exchanges. Authors considered inputs and comments submitted by the public, the National Academies of Sciences, and Federal agencies. For additional information on the overall report process, please see Appendices <a href=\"https://health2016.globalchange.gov/node/103\">2</a>-<a href=\"https://health2016.globalchange.gov/node/104\">3</a>.<br/><br/> The health outcomes selected and prioritized for the chapter were based primarily on those that had substantial peer-reviewed literature to support statements. While many connections between changes in extreme events due to climate change and human health impacts appear intuitive, in some cases there may not be a robust body of peer-reviewed literature to support statements about direct effects. For example, while it is believed that droughts have the ability to impact water quality, which could in turn impact health, there are few studies documenting specific health consequences in the United States.<br/><br/>In addition, due to space constraints, the authors did not intend to exhaustively identify all possible health impacts from every type of extreme event addressed in this chapter. Instead, the authors have provided an overview of possible impacts from different types of extreme events and provided a framework for understanding what additional factors (for example, population vulnerability, existing quality of infrastructure, etc.) can exacerbate or reduce adverse health outcomes. <br/><br/>Due to limited space and the uncertainty around future projections of tornadoes, we do not include detailed discussion of this topic in this chapter. We recognize that tornadoes can cause significant infrastructure damage and significant health impacts, and understanding how climate change will impact tornado intensity, frequency, and geographic distribution is an area of active scientific investigation."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "The Third National Climate Assessment (2014 NCA) provides the most recent, peer-reviewed assessment conclusions for projected increases in the frequency and/or intensity of extreme precipitation, hurricanes, coastal inundation, drought, and wildfires in the United States. To the extent that these extreme events are projected to increase in some regions of the United States, people are expected to be at greater risk of exposure to health hazards. <br/><br/>Flooding associated with extreme precipitation, hurricanes, and coastal storms is expected to increase in some regions of the United States due to climate change, thereby increasing exposure to a variety of health hazards. The health impacts of floods and storms include death, injury, and illness; exacerbation of underlying medical conditions; and adverse effects on mental health. <br/><br/>Climate change is projected to lengthen or intensify droughts, especially in the Southwest, which may increase exposure to a broad set of health hazards. The potential health impacts of drought include: illness associated with reduced water quality and quantity  and reduced air quality, associations with increased rates of some infectious diseases, and adverse mental health impacts. <br/><br/>Large, intense wildfires will occur more frequently in some regions of the United States, particularly in the western United States and Alaska, and this is expected to increase exposure to wildfire-related health risks. The health impacts of wildfire include death, injury, and illness, including exacerbation of underlying medical conditions."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "There is <b>high confidence</b> that the types of health impacts associated with climate-related changes in extremes include death, injury, or illness; exacerbation of underlying medical conditions; and adverse effects on mental health (see Table 1). Based on the evidence presented in the peer-reviewed literature, there is <b>medium confidence</b> regarding increases in exposure to health hazards associated with projected increases in the frequency and/or intensity of extreme precipitation, hurricanes, coastal inundation, drought, and wildfires in some regions of the United States. <br/><br/>Many qualitative studies have been published about the potential or expected health hazards from these events, but few draw strong or definitive conclusions that exposure to health hazards will increase due to climate change. Thus, the evidence is suggestive and supports a <b>medium confidence</b> level that, to the extent that these extreme events are projected to increase in some regions of the United States, people are expected to be at greater risk of exposure to health hazards. There is no quantitative information on which to base probability estimates of the likelihood of increasing exposure to health hazards associated with extreme precipitation, hurricanes, coastal inundation, drought, and wildfires."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "The role of climate change in observed shifts in and future projections of the frequency, intensity, geographic distribution, and duration of certain extreme events is an ongoing, active area of research. For example, although the 2014 NCA concluded that extreme events will increase in some regions of the United States, uncertainties remain with respect to projections of climate impacts at smaller, more local scales and the timing of such impacts (see <a href=\"#\">Table 1</a>). Climate change related projections of winter storms and severe storms, including tornadoes, hail, and thunderstorms, are still uncertain. <br/><br/>The human health implications of the changes in extreme events have not received as much research attention to date, and there are currently no published, national-scale, quantitative projections of changes in exposure risks for the four categories of extreme events addressed in this chapter. Relevant health surveillance and epidemiological data for extreme events are limited by underreporting, underestimation, and lack of a common definition of what constitutes an adverse health impact from an extreme event. For drought in particular, there are few studies documenting specific health consequences in the United States. Challenges to quantitatively estimating future human health risks for the four types of extreme events addressed in this chapter include limited data availability and lack of comprehensive modeling methods. For winter storms and severe storms especially, scientists need a better understanding of how climate change will affect future storm trends before they can make projections of future health impacts."^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

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