Sensitivity Analysis of Differences in Modeling Approaches

Figure 3

Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC
Kenneth Kunkel

This figure appears in chapter appendix-1--technical-support-document of the The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment report.

A sensitivity analysis was conducted to test for potential impacts of differences in the modeling approaches (use of different historical reference periods and use of different sets of CMIP5 models) in the research studies highlighted in this assessment (see Research Highlights in Chapters 2, 3, 5, and 6). The values in the first column are temperature changes for three different reference periods used in this assessment, relative to the 1971–2000 reference period used in the 2014 NCA. The sets of values in the second column show future temperature changes for individual climate models for 2050–2059, relative to 1971–2000, for those studies that used the RCP6.0 scenario. From left to right, the vertical sets of values represent (a) 21 models used in the Vibrio/Alexandrium bacteria study (red), (b) 11 models used in the Gambierdiscus study (green), (c) the 5 models used in the Lyme disease study (purple), (d) the 2 models used in the extreme temperature study (blue), and (e) the single model used in the air quality study (orange). Each “×” represents a single model. The filled-in circle is the mean temperature change for all models in the column. (Figure source: NOAA NCEI / CICS-NC)

Free to use with credit to the original figure source.

The time range for this figure is January 01, 1971 (00:00 AM) to December 31, 2099 (23:59 PM).

This figure was created on August 07, 2015.

The spatial range for this figure is -90.00° to 90.00° latitude, and -180.00° to 180.00° longitude.

This figure was derived from dataset U.S. Climate Divisional Dataset Version 2 .
This figure was derived from dataset World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble .