Projected Change in Temperature, Ozone, and Ozone-Related Premature Deaths in 2030

Figure 3.2

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Neal Fann

This figure appears in chapter 3 of the The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment report.

Projected changes in average daily maximum temperature (degrees Fahrenheit), summer average maximum daily 8-hour ozone (parts per billion), and excess ozone-related deaths (incidences per year by county) in the year 2030 relative to the year 2000, following two global climate models and two greenhouse gas concentration pathways, known as Representative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs (see van Vuuren et al. 201144124472-4a1d-4fbd-b86e-91cca108b938). Each year (2000 and 2030) is represented by 11 years of modeled data for May through September, the traditional ozone season in the United States.

The top panels are based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Department of Energy (NCAR/DOE) Community Earth System Model (CESM) following RCP8.5 (a higher greenhouse gas concentration pathway), and the bottom panels are based on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE2-R following RCP6.0 (a moderate greenhouse gas concentration pathway).

The leftmost panels are based on dynamically downscaled regional climate using the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the center panels are based on air quality simulations from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, and the rightmost panels are based on the U.S. EPA Environmental Benefits and Mapping Program (BenMAP).

Fann et al. 2015 reports a range of mortality outcomes based on different methods of computing the mortality effects of ozone changes—the changes in the number of deaths shown in the rightmost panels were computed using the method described in Bell et al. 2004.54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de a02f25a1-29c1-4564-9b41-7d974e8ce6b5 (Figure source: adapted from Fann et al. 2015)54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de

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Other figures containing images in this figure : 4: Projected Change in Temperature, Ozone, and Ozone-Related Premature Deaths in 2030

The time range for this figure is January 01, 2030 (00:00 AM) to December 31, 2030 (23:59 PM).

This figure was created on October 31, 2014.

The spatial range for this figure is 24.50° to 49.38° latitude, and -124.80° to -66.95° longitude.

This figure was derived from The Geographic Distribution and Economic Value of Climate Change-Related Ozone Health Impacts in the United States in 2030 .

References :

• The representative concentration pathways: an overview (44124472)
• The Geographic Distribution and Economic Value of Climate Change-Related Ozone Health Impacts in the United States in 2030 (54a66159)
• Ozone and short-term mortality in 95 US urban communities, 1987-2000 (a02f25a1)

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