---
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  Abstract: 'The term “tipping point” commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term “tipping element” to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points.'
  Author: "Lenton, Timothy M.\rHeld, Hermann\rKriegler, Elmar\rHall, Jim W.\rLucht, Wolfgang\rRahmstorf, Stefan\rSchellnhuber, Hans Joachim"
  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0705414105
  Date: 'February 12, 2008'
  Issue: 6
  Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  Pages: 1786-1793
  Title: Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
  URL: http://www.pnas.org/content/105/6/1786.full.pdf+html
  Volume: 105
  Year: 2008
  _chapter: '["Appendix 4: FAQs FINAL"]'
  _record_number: 4166
  _uuid: d64a3dbf-d45e-49de-98b9-b4ea32da888f
  reftype: Journal Article
child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.0705414105
description: Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
display_name: Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
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identifier: d64a3dbf-d45e-49de-98b9-b4ea32da888f
publications:
  - /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-faqs
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uri: /reference/d64a3dbf-d45e-49de-98b9-b4ea32da888f