--- - chapter_identifier: forests confidence: 'High. Forest growth substantially exceeds annual harvest for normal wood and paper products, and much forest harvest residue is now unutilized. Forest bioenergy will become viable if policy and economic energy valuations make it competitive with fossil fuels.' evidence: "The key message and supporting text summarize extensive evidence documented in the TIR, “Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Ecosystems: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis for the U.S. Forest Sector.”78f2cbd8-d8f2-4d99-abbd-017bad4d52f1 Technical input reports (58) on a wide range of topics were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. \r\nStudies have shown that harvesting forest bioenergy can prevent carbon emissions1ff7435a-fc06-431c-b5ec-0b3c96a54146,d5f8237a-e5c6-4dda-a85b-cbd5f43cdc56 and replace a portion of U.S. energy consumption to help reduce future climate change. Some newer literature has explored how use of forest bioenergy can replace a portion of current U.S. energy production from oil.41269e24-05f2-4c4b-9425-5555d7fcf694,0169e20a-8550-4435-8db2-b149a7d1d94d Some more recent publications have reported some environmental benefits, such as improved water quality154cffb6-4cf1-4b1f-8fee-a910cfaed3a0,04b697c7-00a8-4018-9118-823a5cabba42 and better management of timber lands,0169e20a-8550-4435-8db2-b149a7d1d94d that can result from forest bioenergy implementation.\r\n" href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/bioenergy-benefits-consequences.yaml identifier: bioenergy-benefits-consequences ordinal: 3 process: "A central component of the process was a workshop held in July 2011 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service to guide the development of the technical input report (TIR). This session, along with numerous teleconferences, led to the foundational TIR, “Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Ecosystems: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis for the U.S. Forest Sector.”78f2cbd8-d8f2-4d99-abbd-017bad4d52f1 \r\nThe chapter authors engaged in multiple technical discussions via teleconference between January and June 2012, which included careful review of the foundational TIR and of 58 additional technical inputs provided by the public, as well as other published literature and professional judgment. Discussions were followed by expert deliberation of draft key messages by the authors and targeted consultation with additional experts by the lead author of each message.\r\n" report_identifier: nca3 statement: 'Bioenergy could emerge as a new market for wood and could aid in the restoration of forests killed by drought, insects, and fire.' uncertainties: "The implications of forest product use for bioenergy depends on regional context and circumstances, such as feedstock type and prior management, land conditions, transport and storage logistics, conversion processes used to produce energy, distribution and use.32a45d13-0467-4839-a635-aa8788b4d753,9e8af8e6-bbef-489d-b963-dc7c8d3972a3\r\nThe potential for biomass energy to increase forest harvests has led to debates about whether biomass energy is net carbon neutral.ac2a627c-7428-404d-90b3-fd11213a7620,c8893279-4691-499f-bb5a-ca2f8e85401c,b2867ce5-d6c6-449d-a562-945fec7bc993,3dbabb47-edc2-4b4d-be52-222e2497a056 The debate on biogenic emissions regulations revolves around how to account for emissions related to biomass production and use.97f668c5-f969-4bb6-b234-d51874a11ab8 Deforestation contributes to atmospheric CO2 concentration, and that contribution has been declining over time. The bioenergy contribution question is largely one of incentives for appropriate management. When forests have no value, they are burned or used inappropriately. Bioenergy can be produced in a way that provides more benefits than costs or vice versa. The market for energy from biomass appears to be ready to grow in response to energy pricing, policy, and demand; however, this industry is yet to be made a large-scale profitable enterprise in most regions of the United States.\r\n" uri: /report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/bioenergy-benefits-consequences url: ~ - chapter_identifier: forests confidence: 'Given the evidence base and remaining uncertainty, there is medium confidence in this key message. Climate change and global and national economic events will have an integral impact on forest management, but it is uncertain to what magnitude. While forest landowners have shown the capacity to adapt to new economic conditions, potential changes in the international markets coincident with large-scale natural disturbances enhanced by climate change (fire, insects) could challenge this adaptive capacity. An important uncertainty is how people will respond to climate change in terms of forest management.' evidence: "The key message and supporting text summarizes extensive evidence documented in the TIR, “Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Ecosystems: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis for the U.S. Forest Sector.”78f2cbd8-d8f2-4d99-abbd-017bad4d52f1 Technical input reports (58) on a wide range of topics were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. \r\nThe forest management response to climate change in urban areas, the wildlife-urban interface, and in rural areas has been studied from varying angles. The literature on urban forests identifies the value of those forests to clean air, aesthetics, and recreation and suggests that under a changing climate, urban communities will continue to enhance their environment with trees and urban forests.78f2cbd8-d8f2-4d99-abbd-017bad4d52f1,2545714a-f4ac-48f4-8c8f-b0954f3cfef6 In the wildlife-urban area and the rural areas, the changing composition of private forest landowners will affect the forest management response to climate change. Shifts in corporate owners to include investment organizations that may or may not have forest management as a primary objective has been described nationally.78f2cbd8-d8f2-4d99-abbd-017bad4d52f1,5569b7e3-2649-4e91-90f5-33cfc9a8bbec Family forest owners are an aging demographic; one in five acres of forestland is owned by someone who is at least 75 years of age.9b0386a7-0420-4061-9091-00aef01d6cc2 Multiple reasons for ownership are given by family forest owners, including the most commonly cited reasons of beauty/scenery, to pass land on to heirs, privacy, nature protection, and part of home/cabin. Many family forest owners feel it is necessary to keep the woods healthy but many are not familiar with forest management practices.9b0386a7-0420-4061-9091-00aef01d6cc2 Long-term studies of the forest sector in the southern United States document the adaptive response of forest landowners to market prices as they manage to supply wood and associated products from their forests;e925f8cf-5da4-40c9-a6b2-409a8523adc8 however prices are less of an incentive in other parts of the United States.78f2cbd8-d8f2-4d99-abbd-017bad4d52f1,2545714a-f4ac-48f4-8c8f-b0954f3cfef6 Econometric approaches have been used to explore the economic activities in the forest sector, including interactions with other sectors such as agriculture, impact of climate change, and the potential for new markets with bioenergy.dd77d60a-0b9f-4a5f-bb8b-41bba86a5ddc,cefd546d-c937-47a1-81b4-6583558a910f An earlier study explored the effects of globalization on forest managementd66999c0-4675-4c75-a85d-94ccec1d5dda and a newer study looked at the effect of U.S. climate change policy.1490dd53-ae13-4319-9cbf-66de96d01614 One of the biggest challenges is the lack of climate change information that results in inaction from many forest owners.9b0386a7-0420-4061-9091-00aef01d6cc2\r\n" href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/influences-on-forest-management.yaml identifier: influences-on-forest-management ordinal: 4 process: "A central component of the process was a workshop held in July 2011 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service to guide the development of the technical input report (TIR). This session, along with numerous teleconferences, led to the foundational TIR, “Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Ecosystems: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis for the U.S. Forest Sector.”78f2cbd8-d8f2-4d99-abbd-017bad4d52f1 \r\nThe chapter authors engaged in multiple technical discussions via teleconference between January and June 2012, which included careful review of the foundational TIR and of 58 additional technical inputs provided by the public, as well as other published literature and professional judgment. Discussions were followed by expert deliberation of draft key messages by the authors and targeted consultation with additional experts by the lead author of each message.\r\n" report_identifier: nca3 statement: 'Forest management responses to climate change will be influenced by the changing nature of private forestland ownership, globalization of forestry markets, emerging markets for bioenergy, and U.S. climate change policy.' uncertainties: "Human concerns regarding the effects of climate change on forests and the role of adaptation and mitigation will be viewed from the perspective of the values that forests provide to human populations, including timber products, water, recreation, and aesthetic and spiritual benefits.78f2cbd8-d8f2-4d99-abbd-017bad4d52f1 Many people, organizations, institutions, and governments influence the management of U.S. forests. Economic opportunities influence the amount and nature of private forestland (and much is known quantitatively about this dynamic) and societal values have a strong influence on how public forestland is managed. However, it remains challenging to project exactly how humans will respond to climate change in terms of forest management. \r\nClimate change will alter known environmental and economic risks and add new risks to be addressed in the management of forests in urban areas, the wildlife-urban interface, and rural areas. The capacity to manage risk varies greatly across landowners. While adaptation strategies provide a means to manage risks associated with climate change, a better understanding of risk perception by forest landowners would enhance the development and implementation of these management strategies. Identification of appropriate monitoring information and associated tools to evaluate monitoring data could facilitate risk assessment. Information and tools to assess environmental and economic risks associated with the impacts of climate change in light of specific management decisions would be informative to forestland managers and owners. \r\n" uri: /report/nca3/chapter/forests/finding/influences-on-forest-management url: ~ - chapter_identifier: ecosystems confidence: "Given the evidence base and uncertainties, there is high confidence that climate change impacts on ecosystems reduce their ability to improve water quality and regulate water flows.\r\nIt is well established that precipitation and associated river discharge are major drivers of water pollution in the form of excess nutrients, sediment, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) transport into rivers. Increases in precipitation in many regions of the country are therefore contributing to declines in water quality in those areas. However, those areas of the country that will see reduced precipitation may experience water-quality improvement; thus, any lack of agreement on future water-quality impacts of climate change may be due to locational differences.\r\n" evidence: "The author team digested the contents of more than 125 technical input reports on a wide array of topics to arrive at this key message. The foundational Technical Input Report7406884d-2302-4644-aa50-12ed8baf4fd7 was the primary source used. \r\nStudies have shown that increasing precipitation is already resulting in declining water quality in many regions of the country, particularly by increasing nitrogen loading.2513bdf8-409d-4564-a569-490457fad85b,5cb1fd05-b566-4048-9989-c49553b77755,c0431825-7915-41e6-adbe-09285acf9168,2def4038-abbc-43aa-b816-c8b195e2cf5b,f68f6208-6991-4325-8854-881c76072096 This is because the increases in flow can pick up and carry greater loads of nutrients like nitrogen to rivers.5cb1fd05-b566-4048-9989-c49553b77755,c0431825-7915-41e6-adbe-09285acf9168,2def4038-abbc-43aa-b816-c8b195e2cf5b,f68f6208-6991-4325-8854-881c76072096 \r\nOne model for the Mississippi River Basin, based on a doubling of CO2, projects that increasing discharge and nitrogen loading will lead to larger algal blooms in the Gulf of Mexico and a larger dead zone.0c7283dc-9cfb-4669-b0ec-0e81c7285bd5 The Gulf of Mexico is the recipient system for the Mississippi Basin, receiving all of the nitrogen that is carried downriver but not removed by river processes, wetlands, or other ecosystems.\r\nSeveral models project that declining streamflow, due to the combined effects of climate change and water withdrawals, will cause local extinctions of fish and other aquatic organisms,9dc780be-c325-40c4-a7ea-4846b7c53b59 particularly trout in the interior western U.S. (composite of 10 models, A1B scenario).38a94887-f469-4fce-8feb-75fc8e55568e The trout study38a94887-f469-4fce-8feb-75fc8e55568e is one of the few studies of impacts on fish that uses an emissions scenario and a combination of climate models. The researchers studied four different trout species. Although there were variations among species, their overall conclusion was robust across species for the composite model.\r\nWater quality can also be negatively affected by increasing temperatures. There is widespread evidence that warmer lakes can promote the growth of harmful algal blooms, which produce toxins.11b14f32-9d24-45c2-b953-d8a57cbab116 \r\n" href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/fall-of-water-benefits-from-ecosystem.yaml identifier: fall-of-water-benefits-from-ecosystem ordinal: 1 process: 'The key messages and supporting chapter text summarize extensive evidence documented in the Ecosystems Technical Input Report, Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Ecosystem Services: Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment.7406884d-2302-4644-aa50-12ed8baf4fd7 This foundational report evolved from a technical workshop held at the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation in Palo Alto, CA, in January 2012 and attended by approximately 65 scientists. Technical inputs (127) on a wide range of topics related to ecosystems were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input.' report_identifier: nca3 statement: Climate change impacts on ecosystems reduce their ability to improve water quality and regulate water flows. uncertainties: '(for example, fertilization) on nitrogen losses from watersheds,2513bdf8-409d-4564-a569-490457fad85b,c0431825-7915-41e6-adbe-09285acf9168 and how the interactions between climate and human actions (for example, water withdrawals) will affect fish populations in the west.9dc780be-c325-40c4-a7ea-4846b7c53b59,38a94887-f469-4fce-8feb-75fc8e55568e However, few studies have projected the impacts of future climate change on water quality. Given the tight link between river discharge and pollutants, only areas of the U.S. that are projected to see increases in precipitation will see increases in pollutant transport to rivers. It is also important to note that pollutant loading – for example, nitrogen fertilizer use – is often more important as a driver of water pollution than climate. 2513bdf8-409d-4564-a569-490457fad85b,c0431825-7915-41e6-adbe-09285acf9168' uri: /report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/fall-of-water-benefits-from-ecosystem url: ~ - chapter_identifier: ecosystems confidence: "Given the evidence base and uncertainties, there is high confidence that climate change, combined with other stressors, is overwhelming the capacity of ecosystems to buffer the impacts from extreme events like droughts, floods, and storms.\r\nEcosystem responses to climate change will vary regionally. For example, whether salt marshes and mangroves will be able to accrue sediment at rates sufficient to keep ahead of sea level rise and maintain their protective function will vary by region.\r\nClimate has been the dominant factor controlling burned area during the 20th century, even during periods of fire suppression by forest management,b95e9226-076c-4eb5-9367-472499624084,e1e1f3a0-9fea-4ad2-a3af-575716f9849e and the area burned annually has increased steadily over the last 20 years concurrent with warming and/or drying climate. Warming and decreased precipitation have also made fire-prone ecosystems more vulnerable to “mega-fires” – large fires that are unprecedented in their social, economic, and environmental impacts. Large fires put people living in the urban-wildland interface at risk for health problems and property loss. In 2011 alone, 8.3 million acres burned in wildfires, causing 15 deaths and property losses greater than $1.9 billion.4d24a997-855e-44e0-9693-2895851d9144\r\n" evidence: "The author team digested the contents of more than 125 technical input reports on a wide array of topics to arrive at this key message. The foundational Technical Input Report7406884d-2302-4644-aa50-12ed8baf4fd7 was the primary source used. \r\nFires: Climate change has increased the potential for extremely large fires with novel social, economic, and environmental impacts. In 2011, more than 8 million acres burned, with significant human mortality and property damage ($1.9 billion).4d24a997-855e-44e0-9693-2895851d9144 Warming and decreased precipitation have made fire-prone ecosystems more vulnerable to “mega-fires” – large fires that are unprecedented in their social, economic, and environmental impacts. Large fires put people living in the urban-wildland interface at risk for health problems and property loss.\r\nFloods: Natural ecosystems such as salt marshes, reefs, mangrove forests, and barrier islands defend coastal ecosystems and infrastructure against flooding due to storm surges. The loss of these natural features due to coastal development, erosion, and sea level rise render coastal ecosystems and infrastructure more vulnerable to catastrophic damage during or after extreme events (see Ch. 25: Coasts).15451c8d-0add-40c7-a7e6-c286ccbf76f6,65b90ca8-fd21-4d15-9631-bae1dc6a63b6 Floodplain wetlands, which are also vulnerable to loss by inundation, absorb floodwaters and reduce the impact of high flows on river-margin lands. In the Northeast, a sea level rise of 1.6 feet (within the range of 1 to 4 feet projected for 2100; Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 9) will dramatically increase impacts of storm surge on people (47% increase) and property loss (73% increase) in Long Island.0fc3f3dd-7edf-4305-8ec9-0d0e2bcfcd18 \r\nStorms: Natural ecosystems have a capacity to buffer extreme weather events that produce sudden increases in water flow and materials. These events reduce the amount of time water is in contact with sites that support the plants and microbes that remove pollutants (Chapter 25: Coastal Zone).15451c8d-0add-40c7-a7e6-c286ccbf76f6,65b90ca8-fd21-4d15-9631-bae1dc6a63b6\r\n" href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/ecosystem-buffers-overwhelmed.yaml identifier: ecosystem-buffers-overwhelmed ordinal: 2 process: 'The key messages and supporting chapter text summarize extensive evidence documented in the Ecosystems Technical Input Report, Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Ecosystem Services: Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment.7406884d-2302-4644-aa50-12ed8baf4fd7 This foundational report evolved from a technical workshop held at the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation in Palo Alto, CA, in January 2012 and attended by approximately 65 scientists. Technical inputs (127) on a wide range of topics related to ecosystems were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input.' report_identifier: nca3 statement: 'Climate change, combined with other stressors, is overwhelming the capacity of ecosystems to buffer the impacts from extreme events like fires, floods, and storms.' uncertainties: "A new analytical framework was recently developed to generate insights into the interactions among the initial state of ecosystems, the type and magnitude of disturbance, and effects of disturbance.41f4e895-d87d-427a-a9d9-e1d411fc838d Progress in understanding these relationships is critical for predicting how human activities and climate change, including extreme events like droughts, floods, and storms, will interact to affect ecosystems.\r\nUncertainties: The ability of ecosystems to buffer extreme events is extremely difficult to assess and quantify, as it requires understanding of complex ecosystem responses to very rare events. However, it is clear that the loss of this buffering ecosystem service is having important effects on coastal and fire-prone ecosystems across the United States. \r\n" uri: /report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/ecosystem-buffers-overwhelmed url: ~ - chapter_identifier: ecosystems confidence: 'Based on the evidence base and uncertainties, confidence is high that familiar landscapes are changing so rapidly that iconic species may disappear from regions where they have been prevalent, altering some regions so much that their mix of plant and animal life will become almost unrecognizable. Many changes in species distribution have already occurred and will inevitably continue, resulting in the loss of familiar landscapes and the production of novel species assemblages. ' evidence: "The analysis for the Technical Input Report applied a range of future climate scenarios and projected biome changes across 5% to about 20% of the land area in the U.S. by 2100.7406884d-2302-4644-aa50-12ed8baf4fd7 Other analyses support these projections.e4bf166b-d71c-4560-8d55-84fa64a247af,996a0410-30cf-4076-8ac1-db1fdf519445,37982de0-0e01-476f-b522-b8162d709134,d1806c0e-86c7-4fae-bec5-7f63677976e1 Studies predict that wildfire will be a major driver of change in some areas, including Yellowstone National Parkb95e9226-076c-4eb5-9367-472499624084 and the Arctic.b0873f6b-e2d0-47e5-8eeb-0f71e5af7f04 These biome shifts will be associated with changes in species distributions.c849fdf7-2cee-4145-ac55-467df10a93b8\r\nEvidence indicates that the most obvious changes will occur at the boundaries between ecosystems.dd45f904-52cb-41d0-940e-736bc89803e0,1e858aef-46f6-48bf-8b72-6d5c644f3551,74fe6007-5978-45e5-979f-00196e802167,6d5d70b8-20b7-46ba-a2e9-d7e823968d0f,542f984c-bcf8-491a-8c37-01704d51b3c6,e353701d-b2bf-4ddd-af78-6bced072e963,4460e4d4-aeeb-486f-98b3-2351ed9716ab,3ce6e5b7-f100-4297-afb8-406dc87acf9d Plants and animals are already moving to higher elevations and latitudes in response to climate change,c849fdf7-2cee-4145-ac55-467df10a93b8 with models projecting greater range shifts38a94887-f469-4fce-8feb-75fc8e55568e,acb5b618-25b4-40f9-9a11-354a5da90328 and local extinctions in the future, leading to new plant and animal communities that may be unrecognizable in some regions.7406884d-2302-4644-aa50-12ed8baf4fd7,a34935d6-874d-4cef-ab70-e5d1e3d7e8ca,7976d36f-4e34-4077-8a89-709b1405c107,acb5b618-25b4-40f9-9a11-354a5da90328 One study on fish38a94887-f469-4fce-8feb-75fc8e55568e used general circulation models (GCMs) simulating conditions in the 2040s and 2080s under the A1B emissions scenario, with the choice of models reflecting predictions of high and low climate warming as well as an ensemble of ten models. Their models additionally accounted for biotic interactions. In a second study, a 30-year baseline (1971-2000) and output from two GCMs under the A2 scenario (continued increases in global emissions) were used to develop climate variables that effectively predict present and future species ranges.acb5b618-25b4-40f9-9a11-354a5da90328 Empirical data from the Sonoran Desert (n=39 plots) were used to evaluate species responses to past climate variability.\r\nIconic species:\r\nWildfire is expected to damage and kill iconic desert species, including saguaro cactus.7615a633-6a5a-402f-b15d-4b8614136bac,f514fb4d-8c62-40af-a39c-df95cd1543c1 Bark beetle outbreaks, which have been exacerbated by climate change, are damaging extensive areas of temperate and boreal conifer forests that are characteristic of the western United States.0346508c-1b13-4e3e-a95d-33acaac2b2c1\r\n" href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing.yaml identifier: animal-and-plant-mix-changing ordinal: 3 process: 'The key messages and supporting chapter text summarize extensive evidence documented in the Ecosystems Technical Input Report, Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Ecosystem Services: Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment.7406884d-2302-4644-aa50-12ed8baf4fd7 This foundational report evolved from a technical workshop held at the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation in Palo Alto, CA, in January 2012 and attended by approximately 65 scientists. Technical inputs (127) on a wide range of topics related to ecosystems were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input.' report_identifier: nca3 statement: 'Landscapes and seascapes are changing rapidly, and species, including many iconic species, may disappear from regions where they have been prevalent or become extinct, altering some regions so much that their mix of plant and animal life will become almost unrecognizable.' uncertainties: "In addition to the Technical Input Report, more than 20 new studies of observed and predicted effects of climate change on biomes and species distribution were incorporated in the assessment.\r\nWhile changes in ecosystem structure and biodiversity, including the distribution of iconic species, are occurring and are highly likely to continue, the impact of these changes on ecosystem services is unclear, that is, there is uncertainty about the impact that loss of familiar landscapes will have on people.\r\n" uri: /report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/animal-and-plant-mix-changing url: ~ - chapter_identifier: ecosystems confidence: 'Given the evidence base and uncertainties, there is very high confidence that the timing of critical events, such as spring bud burst, emergence from overwintering, and the start of migrations, has shifted, leading to important impacts on species and habitats. ' evidence: "The key message and supporting text summarizes extensive evidence documented in the Ecosystems Technical Input, Phenology as a bio-indicator of climate change impacts on people and ecosystems: Towards an integrated national assessment approach.13f67e66-80b2-4732-992a-1f4fd1e91d03 An additional 127 input reports, on a wide range of topics related to ecosystems, were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. \r\nMany studies have documented an advance in springtime phenological events of species in response to climate warming. For example, long-term observations of lilac flowering indicate that the onset of spring has advanced one day earlier per decade across the northern hemisphere in response to increased winter and spring temperatures, and by 1.5 days per decade earlier in the western United States.655d6652-08ae-4f55-960d-f06297e9eb9e,56447233-ad64-46b3-8371-925de98e78c0 Other multi-decadal studies for plant species have documented similar trends for early flowering.a454cc19-a815-4db9-b074-bb97cb5925fb,5bb98e9a-bb4f-4653-9ad2-8a34477a67dd,bab55be2-dd1f-4525-aaa0-b7c1f3c975f4,a7b4b70b-7218-483a-8c77-2f593629fa96 Evidence suggests that insect emergence from overwintering may become out of sync with pollen sources,241f3e50-9b98-464f-b6a7-dc0b6ee243a1 and that the beginning of bird and fish migrations are shifting.f5e7f46d-c229-4474-b70b-6f9478134320,d5af6e55-d90e-4258-b455-c95fc6c9994c,eeb20593-b221-4b48-9da2-eae062a14757,7fb94ff1-3d43-4aac-8c66-97633790422b,f8043f85-6a17-419e-bd3c-60b4bfdc2a9a,699a7dbf-7a48-439f-8272-b1daf9bad9b1\r\n" href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/critical-biological-events-shift.yaml identifier: critical-biological-events-shift ordinal: 4 process: 'The key messages and supporting chapter text summarize extensive evidence documented in the Ecosystems Technical Input Report, Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Ecosystem Services: Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment.7406884d-2302-4644-aa50-12ed8baf4fd7 This foundational report evolved from a technical workshop held at the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation in Palo Alto, CA, in January 2012 and attended by approximately 65 scientists. Technical inputs (127) on a wide range of topics related to ecosystems were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input.' report_identifier: nca3 statement: 'Timing of critical biological events, such as spring bud burst, emergence from overwintering, and the start of migrations, has shifted, leading to important impacts on species and habitats.' uncertainties: "In addition to the Ecosystems Technical Input13f67e66-80b2-4732-992a-1f4fd1e91d03 many new studies have been conducted since the previous National Climate Assessment,e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a contributing to our understanding of the impacts of climate change on phenological events. Many studies, in many areas, have shown significant changes in phenology, including spring bud burst, emergence from overwintering, and migration shifts.\r\nA key uncertainty is “phase effects” where organisms are so out of phase with their natural phenology that outbreaks of pests occur, species emerge and cannot find food, or pollination is disrupted. This will vary with specific species and is therefore very difficult to predict.03297bb4-3833-4606-ae88-a166d29b7288,b0ab019c-3ea7-4e75-986c-2cc74541c187,37f4c175-f826-4106-8f9e-1661f51a470c\r\n" uri: /report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/critical-biological-events-shift url: ~ - chapter_identifier: ecosystems confidence: 'Given the evidence and remaining uncertainties, there is very high confidence that ecosystem-based management approaches are increasingly prevalent, and provide options for reducing the harm to biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they provide to society. The effectiveness of these actions is much less certain, however.' evidence: 'Adaptation planning for conservation at federal 076ae54f-40da-494d-a736-a4ef99e2cff8,50bb7a05-57dc-4bd5-bc8e-706ab08cfc6d,c5f68784-215b-4edd-8d34-fee7843e7a1f,cd9323bc-3eba-4d88-a26f-632a9605d90d,007a7014-723e-4ceb-a395-5c986b1bf884 and state levels,e09d97ae-73f6-41f2-bc13-f5c5bfa480bc is focused on cooperation between scientists and managers.41f4e895-d87d-427a-a9d9-e1d411fc838d,007a7014-723e-4ceb-a395-5c986b1bf884,0f6a0b9d-89f1-47d6-b508-5469c4134c43,32610191-4861-48b9-ab67-475b2c319d06 Development of ecosystem-based whole system managementa73f8aa0-6043-4e46-9937-7ee2452dc7f6,8488261c-b80b-4bd9-9efe-838a79eabd8b,397213e4-f0f8-40bf-865b-9e041d793a0f utilizes concepts about “biodiversity and ecosystem services to help people adapt to climate change.”74efef7b-7f6b-4d70-94ec-68289932198e An example is the use of coastal wetlands or mangroves rather than built infrastructure like seawalls or levees to protect coastal regions from storms (Chapter 25: Coasts).06d1db55-4d78-4a7c-aecc-8852c5a03811,9121eb05-d386-4d43-b1cf-b8562be1aeac' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/ecosystem-whole-system-management.yaml identifier: ecosystem-whole-system-management ordinal: 5 process: 'The key messages and supporting chapter text summarize extensive evidence documented in the Ecosystems Technical Input Report, Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Ecosystem Services: Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment.7406884d-2302-4644-aa50-12ed8baf4fd7 This foundational report evolved from a technical workshop held at the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation in Palo Alto, CA, in January 2012 and attended by approximately 65 scientists. Technical inputs (127) on a wide range of topics related to ecosystems were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input.' report_identifier: nca3 statement: 'Whole system management is often more effective than focusing on one species at a time, and can help reduce the harm to wildlife, natural assets, and human well-being that climate disruption might cause.' uncertainties: 'Adaptation strategies to protect biodiversity include: 1) habitat manipulations, 2) conserving populations with higher genetic diversity or more plastic behaviors or morphologies, 3) changing seed sources for re-planting to introduce species or ecotypes that are better suited for future climates, 4) managed relocation (sometimes referred to as assisted migration) to help move species and populations from current locations to those areas expected to become more suitable in the future, and 5) ex-situ conservation such as seed banking and captive breeding.076ae54f-40da-494d-a736-a4ef99e2cff8,007a7014-723e-4ceb-a395-5c986b1bf884,0f6a0b9d-89f1-47d6-b508-5469c4134c43,32610191-4861-48b9-ab67-475b2c319d06,476c703b-59a2-49b1-9f58-06fe7d48afe1 Alternative approaches focus on identifying and protecting features that are important for biodiversity and are projected to be less altered by climate change. The idea is to conserve the physical conditions that contribute to high levels of biodiversity so that species and populations can find suitable areas in the future.181421a5-ba0c-495c-8982-0de79b79b654,87b2d33e-c89a-4924-b8f1-6f483b34d598,755532b1-d3a3-487f-8832-59e3ac8666f8,786410d9-a239-42cf-95b3-11e113b394e7' uri: /report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/ecosystem-whole-system-management url: ~ - chapter_identifier: human-health confidence: 'Overall: Very High confidence. There is considerable consensus and a high quality of evidence in the published peer-reviewed literature that a wide range of health effects will be exacerbated by climate change in the United States. There is less agreement on the magnitude of these effects because of the exposures in question and the multi-factorial nature of climate-health vulnerability, with regional and local differences in underlying health susceptibilities and adaptive capacity. Other uncertainties include how much effort and resources will be put into improving the adaptive capacity of public health systems to prepare in advance for the health effects of climate change, prevent harm to individual and community health, and limit associated health burdens and societal costs. Increased Ozone Exposure: Very High confidence. Allergens: High confidence. Wildfires: Very High confidence. Thermal Extremes: Very High confidence. Extreme Weather Events: Very High confidence. Vector-borne Infectious Diseases: High or Very High confidence for shift in range of disease-carrying vectors. Medium confidence for whether human disease transmission will follow. Food- and Waterborne disease: Medium confidence. Harmful Algal Blooms: Medium confidence. Food Security: Medium confidence for food quality; High confidence for food security. Threats to Mental Health: Very High confidence for post-disaster impacts; Medium confidence for climate-induced stress.' evidence: "The key message and supporting text summarizes extensive evidence documented in several foundational technical inputs prepared for this chapter, including a literature review5836b5e1-c6fa-4eaa-b453-93304c3021d5 and workshop reports for the Northwest and Southeast United States. Nearly 60 additional technical inputs related to human health were received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. \r\nAir Pollution:\r\nThe effects of decreased ozone air quality on human health have been well documented concerning projected increases in ozone,9d61dfcc-c3f3-4814-809a-22f08d31ab48,d6e399c7-1efe-4f91-927e-f957965e3aaa,f5f232cf-d5d9-418f-9437-6b6b66cdcf86,9df9d372-1c41-4065-890e-9784acbd6005,14e6e3ee-86da-47b9-9a7d-a7fef9f1f758,85bd009d-5a5b-41c1-9195-26f57256413d,1a34e7a8-ddbc-4692-be94-44dd31bd5777,b8742545-e96a-4595-922d-b1262c7658d0,afbd60ab-ba9f-4547-88e3-968bc3a4b949 even with uncertainties in projections owing to the complex formation chemistry of ozone and climate change, precursor chemical inventories, wildfire emission, stagnation episodes, methane emissions, regulatory controls, and population characteristics.9221a18a-805b-4508-9e90-8caaa968a715 Ozone exposure leads to a number of health impacts.2a99259b-1d04-4d93-8ab5-2b02e5b75b2e,56b8fc2a-b9ea-4187-9038-e58d51b52c5b,2d58d3bb-62b3-45f2-b4c9-10d22b556f9c\r\nAllergens:\r\nThe effects of increased temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentration have been documented concerning shifts in flowering time and pollen initiation from allergenic plants, elevated production of plant-based allergens, and health effects of increased pollen concentrations and longer pollen seasons.56ba6aa9-7c56-4127-af29-64cb65e62319,cc3e5e5c-7e75-468e-b992-9806ac6f07bd,0b3b0345-837c-4be4-9e68-6dd8d6ea5e51,036ba27d-8341-4f6d-ad66-1288e53dee65,c681c3c2-48a8-4fe6-8e91-86db5bff7fa3,f3bb3bdd-bb8a-45d9-bb24-3d99824a5a0a,7eaad122-f1a7-4062-bbfc-c4c9ad7d3078,0e8764f8-e7e0-44b4-89cc-218100c5049f,d3eacb8b-2f2a-4ac5-9554-09fc1dbd706f,1c307875-852a-4593-8a27-8631d0b892b9,b9370347-fe7c-4b6f-9d49-af723ed931a4,49d46c73-b2da-4977-8c94-fc8d6954d0a0 Additional studies have shown extreme rainfall and higher temperatures can lead to increased indoor air quality issues such as fungi and mold health concerns.fe69d52e-ac37-4d64-9307-9076bb5270a7,c2e46e42-7cb9-4bb0-91df-c676943cd62a,9787187e-18a1-4e16-a244-f96aec28fbff,dd4ad6ad-d135-4c25-9fe0-e462253fcf01 \r\nWildfire:\r\nThe effects of wildfire on human health have been well documented with increase in wildfire frequency036ba27d-8341-4f6d-ad66-1288e53dee65,391560e0-40c1-4f9d-b063-e87d18c87e02,29c056a0-9f13-4eb6-8783-42fbac1302e1,675223d5-b171-46be-9e57-632d71d10204,e1e1f3a0-9fea-4ad2-a3af-575716f9849e,b95e9226-076c-4eb5-9367-472499624084,afbd60ab-ba9f-4547-88e3-968bc3a4b949,f0797ed7-cfce-4040-aebd-b5afc3393d55 leading to decreased air qualityc4dfc48f-0915-4916-8402-a68ee7f5471e,0d2f1e72-f7e5-4ab0-8dce-cd22cdd2617a,ff976c12-df99-41bc-b0c7-464784c38941,10d9c653-28e6-45c4-92f7-cfc2f8218080,0e8fc18d-c727-48b5-ad4e-6eebd620f622,2784ddd2-c6dc-4f94-a943-3218b6623a7c and negative health impacts.0d2f1e72-f7e5-4ab0-8dce-cd22cdd2617a,1a72beb2-f4a0-4db9-bac8-eac55cbf676d,ea4d54e3-419a-41ef-8ec9-38590dba75b9,72933923-2018-4811-8e01-6c9ffc8e0db4\r\nTemperature Extremes:\r\nThe effects of temperature extremes on human health have been well documented for increased heat waves,7de011b1-2d12-48e0-b3e1-0d81e4a8a7d6,315edcf2-107b-449d-b694-5d5a3c87ebbb,580f7af6-b0eb-4ebb-8da4-ab0a0b8ef68b,6168163c-2f61-4593-810e-fe389a8f7834 which cause more deaths,28b8aa29-bfe6-4d88-b73f-fe736f5042b6,f150b127-71ae-4dd2-b414-5590dcfbb80e hospital admissions7ed57375-4f4f-4157-9784-0d09fb2beae1,7f0eb22c-9da0-4cc2-a04f-3bcbbbef317d,22344c1d-cee2-4f9d-91c0-60ceb6e9ca57 and population vulnerability.d7337bde-d182-4ad9-bd11-b1b00c431ea7,24685210-b8ba-4951-b33c-bb43939d53ba \r\nPrecipitation Extremes - Heavy Rainfall, Flooding, and Droughts:\r\nThe effects of weather extremes on human health have been well documented, particularly for increased heavy precipitation, which has contributed to increases in severe flooding events in certain regions. Floods are the second deadliest of all weather-related hazards in the United States.5884b839-f80e-471d-82a9-c3bac6603227,a1b08f2f-e94c-4628-b82a-a646e71116ec Elevated waterborne disease outbreaks have been reported in the weeks following heavy rainfall,dba82efa-be61-4edd-af85-ee5e3ed07139 although other variables may affect these associations.91493d3b-4841-4022-860a-46f961ff4534 Populations living in damp indoor environments experience increased prevalence of asthma and other upper respiratory tract symptoms.dd2ae1f1-d28c-40b5-9a8f-ec46d6be86cb \r\nDisease Carried by Vectors:\r\nClimate is one of the factors that influence the range of disease vectors; 247e6da1-509e-46b7-956b-e39ff5bb87b9,d8639fa7-50e5-4103-808d-9ee8d11d3017,687c4ff2-5eea-4639-9949-abe1802e19be a shift in the current range may increase interactions with people and affect human health.4ae65d1d-6029-4cbc-bb94-a959b1248449,cebfc297-bf30-4501-ab0c-58fce0df35b8,f625d9e8-03ca-4529-b711-4337eab4fd1f,d62b2dd6-ea37-41be-a6fb-5d45320fea28 North Americans are currently at risk from a number of vector-borne diseases.8af8019f-cb74-439e-9d95-f5febef01d2f,77f948ec-3f41-4367-a120-6096a78706f5,1ba3decc-52e5-4aa8-84e5-d706838bc0e4,dd8f9880-294f-45b5-9090-426a0b146e08,bb2ac3a7-743b-40fd-9888-fbc4209f2782,1565a1be-5aa3-4a4c-b1e8-d434a348b3ce,d64171cf-ca5d-4fe7-94df-739b33cc8cb0,4feaa87e-fd56-4e7f-b059-787bb01e11fc,6cf210b3-abcd-474a-b270-b4e346898e75,10973e71-74e8-4308-864b-a90aadfba382,db741c59-3276-430e-b3ff-2cea74073263,6d74c91c-b4e6-4d19-9a20-589c8e519148,accbf1b4-1ef4-460c-b77f-5a4ea4c15532 There are some ambiguities on the relative role and contribution of climate change among the range of factors that affect disease transmission dynamics.4ae65d1d-6029-4cbc-bb94-a959b1248449,cc7c424e-b684-414f-8896-af2d2fee05b6,247e6da1-509e-46b7-956b-e39ff5bb87b9,d8639fa7-50e5-4103-808d-9ee8d11d3017,8af8019f-cb74-439e-9d95-f5febef01d2f,cebfc297-bf30-4501-ab0c-58fce0df35b8,f625d9e8-03ca-4529-b711-4337eab4fd1f,d62b2dd6-ea37-41be-a6fb-5d45320fea28,687c4ff2-5eea-4639-9949-abe1802e19be However, observational studies are already underway and confidence is high based on scientific literature that climate change has contributed to the expanded range of certain disease vectors, including Ixodes ticks which are vectors for Lyme disease in the United States.42a70c4d-4b63-4a1c-bf87-785383d013dc,001ff09f-665d-4872-acdc-11e8af22e83e,2970d11e-802d-4df1-b0b4-e1f0684e7425\r\nFood- and Waterborne Diarrheal Disease: \r\nThere has been extensive research concerning the effects of climate change on water- and food-borne disease transmission.12b8de4f-5527-4afb-88fd-056fafdd9b12,01c49cdf-06bb-41ef-95be-37a8553295b7,dbc4911d-950a-434b-b067-7dd438e2d45b,986057a7-7c6a-4d52-abbe-480652e4131f,2e14106d-235f-4140-920c-0d6c64e3b72a,6dc3924f-8cb4-4183-9a2c-78457dd00846,bb57c512-c1d5-472c-88e2-5760610c93fd,b3528935-e211-45c8-872f-2a9d6c7e0093,a5d4557b-2340-45c2-89cd-4c2bc5e9d720,03009fa3-0b53-44b8-a890-6e3ac5850680,64b2c0fc-7c3c-4b6e-acd6-fd384be7d7f6 The current evidence base strongly supports waterborne diarrheal disease being both seasonal and sensitive to climate variability. There are also multiple studies associating extreme precipitation events with waterborne disease outbreaks.dba82efa-be61-4edd-af85-ee5e3ed07139 This evidence of responsiveness of waterborne disease to weather and climate, combined with evidence strongly suggesting that temperatures will increase and extreme precipitation events will increase in frequency and severity (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate), provides a strong argument for climate change impacts on waterborne disease by analogy. There are multiple studies associating extreme precipitation events with waterborne disease outbreaks and strong climatological evidence for increasing frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in the future. The scientific literature modeling the projected impacts of climate change on waterborne disease is somewhat limited, however. Combined, we therefore have overall medium confidence in the impact of climate change on waterborne and food-borne disease.\r\nHarmful Algal Blooms:\r\nBecause algal blooms are closely related to climate factors, projected changes in climate could affect algal blooms and lead to increases in food- and waterborne exposures and subsequent cases of illness.03009fa3-0b53-44b8-a890-6e3ac5850680,64b2c0fc-7c3c-4b6e-acd6-fd384be7d7f6,918354f7-f16e-4cad-9289-20d41305abb8,da0435d7-46ed-4cc5-bb32-921edfc711a0,81a84ac5-4314-41ff-8ee8-1620db18cd00,030e3539-a620-441c-adb6-042db1a3fa6e,3325ef64-347b-4c33-9289-9e05e905dcbe Harmful algal blooms have multiple exposure routes.45c78ce3-56d1-4ed8-864b-bca300114602,735320eb-92d5-401c-957d-993e06668fa8,c41878da-d01e-4bfc-a839-484d89334c7a \r\nFood Security:\r\nClimate change is expected to have global impacts on both food production and certain aspects of food quality. The impact of temperature extremes, changes in precipitation and elevated atmospheric CO2, and increasing competition from weeds and pests on crop plants are areas of active research (Ch. 6: Agriculture, Key Message 6).2334a252-10b7-4f9a-8312-409147a7333a,5b19a296-8813-4bbf-a292-2b555607a74b,0da20a61-8e46-4547-ae2d-18e927ea9224,af9250bc-28b0-4ad7-a9b7-021ff769d8fe,242761d1-1e32-4bd8-92a1-24f527121099,3818382e-ae71-4de7-9b23-0a5d9195ae5f,b4dfdd6a-ffce-44a3-b6b7-5770f5c70fbb,d4e4b28f-2018-42c7-9131-dd60ab9946c3,49d46c73-b2da-4977-8c94-fc8d6954d0a0 The U.S. as a whole will be less affected than some other countries. However, the most vulnerable, including those dependent on subsistence lifestyles, especially Alaska Natives and low-income populations, will confront shortages of key foods. \r\nMental Health and Stress-Related Disorders:\r\nThe effects of extreme weather on mental health have been extensively studied.88cd6f85-8f7f-4946-9e7b-4b1ad1590858,34647534-8863-4fde-b8d0-f24bcdc4fcc6,9845a991-d58b-409b-91b9-670cc383d030,8eccc146-c874-49ff-ba79-160c0e12c158 Studies have shown the impacts of mental health problems after disasters,6fc9a84e-1ac3-4301-80f5-cb4bf0806428,465e189f-798c-4db7-a381-6c2cb6f9c565,c4f4b08b-a7a1-4c34-8220-a7f881f5be47 with extreme events like Hurricane Katrina,0e71e17a-442f-46d8-b62f-cc3213f85208,8702da89-76d0-44e1-9eda-b04dc6a26385 floods,de8e1aa9-dc37-4056-90f7-d11b9fa20f2c,63de15ee-1f68-4899-a9f2-067f3ec89bda heat waves,922bcd50-dd07-4e05-afc7-fe3bcb1a953a and wildfiresceafce9f-08b6-4a6f-accb-95678efa13c9 having led to mental health problems. Further work has shown that some people with mental illnesses are especially vulnerable to heat. Suicide rates vary with weather,f3f74a8a-8d03-4770-8765-66c57dd40da3,83c98464-a66f-4c93-8698-a45966ccc96b,bf16e763-fb16-45db-bdb9-e533ccb2bdac dementia is a risk factor for hospitalization and death during heat waves,922bcd50-dd07-4e05-afc7-fe3bcb1a953a,8bf8d41a-8b94-4ec2-95f0-cfd77b48685e and medications for schizophrenia may interfere with temperature regulation or even directly cause hyperthermia.1e9a7907-02f2-4da8-9e93-131f92515dbc,114cd0b9-5577-4c58-b5b1-24c822dd4ad7 Additional potential mental health impacts include distress associated with environmental degradation, displacement, and the knowledge of climate change.34647534-8863-4fde-b8d0-f24bcdc4fcc6,9845a991-d58b-409b-91b9-670cc383d030,ac2a32ac-2dce-4cf0-943a-f788c508b72a,06f5500e-fab9-4da4-b90d-aed04d543f83\r\n" href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/human-health/finding/climate-change-threatens-health.yaml identifier: climate-change-threatens-health ordinal: 1 process: 'The key messages were developed during technical discussions and expert deliberation at a two-day meeting of the eight chapter Lead Authors, plus Susan Hassol and Daniel Glick, held in Boulder, Colorado May 8-9, 2012; through multiple technical discussions via six teleconferences from January through June 2012, and an author team call to finalize the Traceable Account draft language on Oct 12, 2012; and through other various communications on points of detail and issues of expert judgment in the interim. The author team also engaged in targeted consultations during multiple exchanges with Contributing Authors, who provided additional expertise on subsets of the key message. These discussions were held after a review of the technical inputs and associated literature pertaining to human health, including a literature review,5836b5e1-c6fa-4eaa-b453-93304c3021d5 workshop reports for the Northwest and Southeast United States, and additional technical inputs on a variety of topics. ' report_identifier: nca3 statement: 'Climate change threatens human health and well-being in many ways, including impacts from increased extreme weather events, wildfire, decreased air quality, threats to mental health, and illnesses transmitted by food, water, and diseases-carriers such as mosquitoes and ticks. Some of these health impacts are already underway in the United States.' uncertainties: 'Important new evidence on heat-health effectse2f39823-225f-43ea-ae65-dfc3d73bf9a6,1f4ec538-27f4-4a34-9d75-2d4cf9d2e960,71cceabc-45d8-4b40-bb94-30755e6db7d3 confirmed many of the findings from a prior literature review. Uncertainties in the magnitude of projections of future climate-related morbidity and mortality can result from differences in climate model projections of the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heat waves and other climate parameters such as precipitation. Efforts to improve the information base should address the coordinated monitoring of climate and improved surveillance of health effects.' uri: /report/nca3/chapter/human-health/finding/climate-change-threatens-health url: ~ - chapter_identifier: human-health confidence: "Given the evidence base and remaining uncertainties, confidence that climate change will amplify existing health threats: Very High.\r\nAmong those especially vulnerable are:\r\nChildren: Very High. \r\nThe elderly: Very High.\r\nThe sick: Very High.\r\nThe poor: Very High.\r\n" evidence: "The key message and supporting text summarizes extensive evidence documented in several foundational technical inputs prepared for this chapter, including a literature review5836b5e1-c6fa-4eaa-b453-93304c3021d5 and workshop reports for the Northwest and Southeast regions.95f971d1-7189-4dd5-8949-447d2fceba57 Nearly 60 additional technical inputs related to human health were received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. \r\nCurrent epidemiological evidence on climate-sensitive health outcomes in the U.S. indicates that health impacts will differ substantially by location, pathway of exposure, underlying susceptibility, and adaptive capacity. These disparities in health impacts will largely result from differences in the distribution of individual attributes in a population that confers vulnerability (age, socioeconomic status, and race), attributes of place that reduce or amplify exposure (floodplain, coastal zone, and urban heat island), and the resilience of critical public health infrastructure. \r\nAmplification of existing health threats: The effects of extreme heat and heat waves, projected worsening air pollution and asthma, extreme rainfall and flooding, and displacement and injuries associated with extreme weather events, fueled by climate change, are already substantial public health issues. Trends projected under a changing climate are projected to exacerbate these health effects in the future.089d8050-f4c8-4d07-bc35-25bf61691be3 \r\nChildren: The effects of climate change increase vulnerability of children to extreme heat, and increased health damage (morbidity, mortality) resulting from heat waves has been well documented.0b3b0345-837c-4be4-9e68-6dd8d6ea5e51,0e8764f8-e7e0-44b4-89cc-218100c5049f,7de011b1-2d12-48e0-b3e1-0d81e4a8a7d6,315edcf2-107b-449d-b694-5d5a3c87ebbb,6168163c-2f61-4593-810e-fe389a8f7834,d58c7033-ae9f-4607-95b8-3a6abbc71506 Extreme heat also causes more pediatric deaths,28b8aa29-bfe6-4d88-b73f-fe736f5042b6,f150b127-71ae-4dd2-b414-5590dcfbb80e and more emergency room visits and hospital admissions.7ca0e947-163a-46f3-9274-cea209b94510,7ed57375-4f4f-4157-9784-0d09fb2beae1,7f0eb22c-9da0-4cc2-a04f-3bcbbbef317d,22344c1d-cee2-4f9d-91c0-60ceb6e9ca57 Adverse effects from increased heavy precipitation can lead to more pediatric deaths, waterborne diseases,91493d3b-4841-4022-860a-46f961ff4534 and illness.3c45d8a9-1195-4769-84da-bbb7d35a86d7 \r\nThe elderly: Heat stress is especially damaging to the health of older people,71cceabc-45d8-4b40-bb94-30755e6db7d3,7ca0e947-163a-46f3-9274-cea209b94510,bdea0759-701d-4183-9966-cee3ce977e08,8bf8d41a-8b94-4ec2-95f0-cfd77b48685e,b00a1349-fb5f-4e2d-b1bc-cfceb0863de2,5836b5e1-c6fa-4eaa-b453-93304c3021d5 as are climate-sensitive increases in air pollution.\r\nThe sick: People and communities lacking the resources to adapt or to enhance mobility and escape health-sensitive situations are at relatively high risk.5f587662-8664-420f-8045-196e2bb7ec0d\r\nThe poor: People and communities lacking the resources to adapt or to move and escape health-sensitive situations are at relatively high risk.5f587662-8664-420f-8045-196e2bb7ec0d\r\nSome communities of color: There are racial disparities in climate-sensitive exposures to extreme heat in urban areas, and in access to means of adaptation – for example air conditioning use.ea6394c5-29f9-4e05-a003-a7fe1294d1ca,1aca1900-c64c-4624-a696-3aab59ba6673,03a60a7d-e54d-4f82-bcc4-aec34d63b0ac,19c0ac33-832f-402b-a027-201bf0faf336 There are also racial disparities in withstanding, and recovering from, extreme weather events.60c1199f-692f-4e77-bd9b-15ae136141e7,80fdf62d-1858-4128-91d2-a87888a2fc00 \r\nClimate change will disproportionately impact low-income communities and some communities of color, raising environmental justice concerns.de5b6f9d-388d-4f67-8115-ad5fca6a95d5,ea6394c5-29f9-4e05-a003-a7fe1294d1ca,1aca1900-c64c-4624-a696-3aab59ba6673,0029eba2-f4a7-4d12-bd24-4f677da92109,60c1199f-692f-4e77-bd9b-15ae136141e7,03a60a7d-e54d-4f82-bcc4-aec34d63b0ac,7ed0591e-06c2-488f-bf19-1b3bbb520214,5f587662-8664-420f-8045-196e2bb7ec0d Existing health disparities3f2402c5-22aa-4f75-861e-f6aca127cd1f,b4732765-ecb5-4098-81a2-58f8b2d77f83,27dc34c7-af90-41db-9e6d-7cc5bf34e6cf,79a37f77-26ef-4bdb-b5d4-2f7f2de1e288,6177fcba-e6ac-48c8-aed7-ef5eed7b1b9c and other inequities7ed0591e-06c2-488f-bf19-1b3bbb520214 increase vulnerability. For example, Hurricane Katrina demonstrated how vulnerable these populations were to extreme weather events because many low-income and of-color New Orleans residents were killed, injured, or had difficulty evacuating and recovering from the storm.60c1199f-692f-4e77-bd9b-15ae136141e7,80fdf62d-1858-4128-91d2-a87888a2fc00 Other climate change related issues that have an equity component include heat waves and air quality.de5b6f9d-388d-4f67-8115-ad5fca6a95d5,ea6394c5-29f9-4e05-a003-a7fe1294d1ca,0029eba2-f4a7-4d12-bd24-4f677da92109,5f587662-8664-420f-8045-196e2bb7ec0d\r\n" href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/human-health/finding/existing-health-threats-amplified.yaml identifier: existing-health-threats-amplified ordinal: 2 process: 'The key messages were developed during technical discussions and expert deliberation at a two-day meeting of the eight chapter Lead Authors, plus Susan Hassol and Daniel Glick, held in Boulder, Colorado May 8-9, 2012; through multiple technical discussions via six teleconferences from January through June 2012, and an author team call to finalize the Traceable Account draft language on Oct 12, 2012; and through other various communications on points of detail and issues of expert judgment in the interim. The author team also engaged in targeted consultations during multiple exchanges with Contributing Authors, who provided additional expertise on subsets of the key message. These discussions were held after a review of the technical inputs and associated literature pertaining to human health, including a literature review,5836b5e1-c6fa-4eaa-b453-93304c3021d5 workshop reports for the Northwest and Southeast United States, and additional technical inputs on a variety of topics. ' report_identifier: nca3 statement: 'Climate change will, absent other changes, amplify some of the existing health threats the nation now faces. Certain people and communities are especially vulnerable, including children, the elderly, the sick, the poor, and some communities of color.' uncertainties: "Important new evidence71cceabc-45d8-4b40-bb94-30755e6db7d3 confirmed findings from a prior literature review.de5b6f9d-388d-4f67-8115-ad5fca6a95d5\r\nThe potential for specific climate-vulnerable communities to experience highly harmful health effects is not entirely clear in specific regions and on specific time frames due to uncertainties in rates of adaptation and uncertainties about the outcome of public health interventions currently being implemented that aim to address underlying health disparities and determinants of health.83c3a726-2925-4e5c-afcb-eb63c56f1164 The public health community has not routinely conducted evaluations of the overall success of adaptation interventions or of particular elements of those interventions.\r\n" uri: /report/nca3/chapter/human-health/finding/existing-health-threats-amplified url: ~ - chapter_identifier: human-health confidence: "Overall, given the evidence base and remaining uncertainties: High. \t\r\nHigh: Public health actions, especially preparedness and prevention, can do much to protect people from some of the impacts of climate change. Prevention provides the most protection; but we do not as yet have a lot of post-implementation information with which to evaluate preparedness plans.\r\nHigh: Early action provides the largest health benefits. There is evidence that heat-health early warning systems have saved lives and money in U.S. cities like Philadelphia, PA.6a6219a6-397f-4ed7-8b22-34c5d7030aa8\r\nVery High: Our ability to adapt to future changes may be limited. \r\n" evidence: "The key message and supporting text summarizes extensive evidence documented in several foundational technical inputs prepared for this chapter, including a literature review5836b5e1-c6fa-4eaa-b453-93304c3021d5 and workshop reports for the Northwest and Southeast United States. Nearly 60 additional technical inputs related to human health were received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. \r\nA number of studies have demonstrated that prevention activities that reduce carbon pollution, like using alternative energy sources09c990e5-09cd-458b-961e-67038aa59fa4 and using active transportation like biking or walking,4feed3ba-a773-445b-a97d-383477321352 can lead to significant public health benefits, which can save costs in the near and long term.25181456-7f49-4348-8ce8-55e4def0e02b Health impacts associated with climate change can be prevented through early action at significantly lower cost than dealing with them after they occur. For example, heat wave early warning systems are much less expensive than treating heat-related illnesses.6a6219a6-397f-4ed7-8b22-34c5d7030aa8 Existing adaptation programs have improved public health resilience.9df9d372-1c41-4065-890e-9784acbd6005,3f2402c5-22aa-4f75-861e-f6aca127cd1f One survey highlighted opportunities to address climate change preparedness activities and climate-health research2cbfda05-ea36-4333-b858-8297784b1fab before needs become more widespread.\r\nConsidering U.S. public health in general, the cost-effectiveness of many prevention activities is well established.04621bc1-b3fc-401b-93f8-4479c9236d2a Some preventive actions are cost-saving, while others are deemed cost-effective based on a pre-determined threshold. Early preventive interventions, such as early warnings for extreme weather, can be particularly cost-effective.44c6f36b-a252-4e0f-8feb-ebed3d289e64 However, there is less information on the cost-effectiveness of specific prevention interventions relevant to climate sensitive health threats (for example, heat early warning systems). Overall, we have high confidence that public health actions can do much to protect people from some of the impacts of climate change, and that early action provides the largest health benefits.\r\nThe inverse relationship between the magnitude of an impact and a community’s ability to adapt is well established and understood. Two extreme events, Hurricane Katrina and the European heat wave of 2003, illustrate this relationship well.59ce3a50-c6f0-43b0-a483-d93b1d03a0ce,6859f3cb-705f-43b3-845f-5ece6e680a68 Extreme events interact with social vulnerability to produce extreme impacts, and the increasing frequency of extreme events associated with climate change is prompting concern for impacts that may overwhelm adaptive capacity.089d8050-f4c8-4d07-bc35-25bf61691be3,e823919d-ae59-4365-adb6-499d5032a402 This is equally true of the public health sector, specifically, leading to very high confidence that as threats increase, our ability to adapt to future changes may be limited. \r\n" href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/human-health/finding/early-public-health-actions-beneficial.yaml identifier: early-public-health-actions-beneficial ordinal: 3 process: 'The key messages were developed during technical discussions and expert deliberation at a two-day meeting of the eight chapter Lead Authors, plus Susan Hassol and Daniel Glick, held in Boulder, Colorado May 8-9, 2012; through multiple technical discussions via six teleconferences from January through June 2012, and an author team call to finalize the Traceable Account draft language on Oct 12, 2012; and through other various communications on points of detail and issues of expert judgment in the interim. The author team also engaged in targeted consultations during multiple exchanges with Contributing Authors, who provided additional expertise on subsets of the key message. These discussions were held after a review of the technical inputs and associated literature pertaining to human health, including a literature review,5836b5e1-c6fa-4eaa-b453-93304c3021d5 workshop reports for the Northwest and Southeast United States, and additional technical inputs on a variety of topics. ' report_identifier: nca3 statement: 'Public health actions, especially preparedness and prevention, can do much to protect people from some of the impacts of climate change. Early action provides the largest health benefits. As threats increase, our ability to adapt to future changes may be limited.' uncertainties: "A key issue (uncertainty) is the extent to which the nation, states, communities and individuals will be able to adapt to climate change because this depends on the levels of local exposure to climate-health threats, underlying susceptibilities, and the capacities to adapt that are available at each scale. Overall, the capacity of the American public health and health care delivery systems faces many challenges.0219f3f2-9fe2-4b30-8b5e-555cd1dd827b The cost of dealing with current health problems is diverting resources from preventing them in the first place. This makes the U.S. population more vulnerable.d7337bde-d182-4ad9-bd11-b1b00c431ea7,04621bc1-b3fc-401b-93f8-4479c9236d2a \r\nSteps for improving the information base on adaptation include undertaking a more comprehensive evaluation of existing climate-health preparedness programs and their effectiveness in various jurisdictions (cities, counties, states, nationally).\r\n" uri: /report/nca3/chapter/human-health/finding/early-public-health-actions-beneficial url: ~ - chapter_identifier: human-health confidence: 'Given the evidence base and remaining uncertainties, confidence is Very High' evidence: "The key message and supporting text summarizes extensive evidence documented in several foundational technical inputs prepared for this chapter, including a literature review5836b5e1-c6fa-4eaa-b453-93304c3021d5 and workshop reports for the Northwest and Southeast U.S. regions.95f971d1-7189-4dd5-8949-447d2fceba57 Nearly 60 additional technical inputs related to human health were received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. \r\nA number of studies have explored the opportunities available to improve health and well-being as a result of adapting to climate change,25181456-7f49-4348-8ce8-55e4def0e02b with many recent publications illustrating the benefit of reduced air pollution.9d61dfcc-c3f3-4814-809a-22f08d31ab48,09c990e5-09cd-458b-961e-67038aa59fa4,b2155862-7dae-423e-b091-6920f52f2b71,76a779a0-2305-4820-b462-9f5b917260d6,dbc5a7b6-f667-47c9-861f-9d2fcefcde6c,25634d35-e541-465c-b093-3df58b3f8b7b,0be715d7-184e-42cb-af4a-25f9dae2081c Additionally, some studies have looked at the co-benefits to climate change and health of applying innovative urban design practices which reduce energy consumption and pollution while increasing public health,81a84ac5-4314-41ff-8ee8-1620db18cd00,4feed3ba-a773-445b-a97d-383477321352,74b346cc-b4e1-4ba8-a1d0-f3a7a91ff14f,2e990bf2-bbf9-443f-ae2b-a4385e191d56 decrease vulnerability of communities to extreme events568c2c56-eb78-4fec-9960-d3fdf05aeae2,b0818c9e-b245-44be-9851-213def5d25da,74b346cc-b4e1-4ba8-a1d0-f3a7a91ff14f and reduce the disparity between different societal groups.83c3a726-2925-4e5c-afcb-eb63c56f1164,37ae2455-e574-4e7b-92cf-eb16bd633d6b,ae0ec413-9568-40fc-bf1c-01c477f8c099,d59b063e-58c2-4c24-95fd-c07f16f92acc,ce92ec18-8b0f-4a5f-b752-1d1aaeb21cd9 \r\n" href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/human-health/finding/opportunities-to-improve-human-health.yaml identifier: opportunities-to-improve-human-health ordinal: 4 process: 'The key messages were developed during technical discussions and expert deliberation at a two-day meeting of the eight chapter Lead Authors, plus Susan Hassol and Daniel Glick, held in Boulder, Colorado May 8-9, 2012; through multiple technical discussions via six teleconferences from January through June 2012, and an author team call to finalize the Traceable Account draft language on Oct 12, 2012; and through other various communications on points of detail and issues of expert judgment in the interim. The author team also engaged in targeted consultations during multiple exchanges with Contributing Authors, who provided additional expertise on subsets of the key message. These discussions were held after a review of the technical inputs and associated literature pertaining to human health, including a literature review,5836b5e1-c6fa-4eaa-b453-93304c3021d5 workshop reports for the Northwest and Southeast United States, and additional technical inputs on a variety of topics. ' report_identifier: nca3 statement: 'Responding to climate change provides opportunities to improve human health and well-being across many sectors, including energy, agriculture, and transportation. Many of these strategies offer a variety of benefits, protecting people while combating climate change and providing other societal benefits.' uncertainties: 'More studies are needed to fully evaluate both the intended and unintended health consequences of efforts to improve the resiliency of communities and human infrastructure to climate change impacts. There is a growing recognition that the magnitude of these health co-benefits or co-harms could be significant, both from a public health and an economic standpoint. 25181456-7f49-4348-8ce8-55e4def0e02b,4feed3ba-a773-445b-a97d-383477321352,50e17b29-8313-4a48-95e9-cdca2241f4ea' uri: /report/nca3/chapter/human-health/finding/opportunities-to-improve-human-health url: ~ - chapter_identifier: water-energy-land-use confidence: 'Given the evidence base and remaining uncertainties, confidence is high. The primary limitation on the confidence assigned to this key message is with respect to its generality. The degree of interactions among the energy, water, and land sectors varies regionally as does the character and intensity of climate change.' evidence: "The key message and supporting text summarizes extensive evidence documented in the Technical Input Report (TIR): Climate and Energy-Water-Land System Interactions: Technical Report to the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment.552cc5f5-a7b3-4a64-8bee-98ae0cced150 Technical input reports (59) on a wide range of topics were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. \r\nThe TIR552cc5f5-a7b3-4a64-8bee-98ae0cced150 incorporates the findings of a workshop, convened by the author team, of experts and stakeholders. The TIR summarizes numerous examples of interactions between specific sectors, such as energy and water or water and land use. A synthesis of these examples provides insight into how climate change impacts the interactions between these sectors.\r\nThe TIR552cc5f5-a7b3-4a64-8bee-98ae0cced150 shows that the character and significance of interactions among the energy, water, and land resource sectors vary regionally. Additionally, the influence of impacts on one sector for the other sectors will depend on the specific impacts involved. Climate change impacts will affect the interactions among sectors, but this may not occur in all circumstances.\r\nThe key message is supported by the National Climate Assessment Climate Scenarios (for example, Kunkel et al. 2013903f7ebb-9b60-4418-b617-593476cbcea5). Many of the historic trends included in the Climate Scenarios are based on data assembled by the Cooperative Observer Network of the National Weather Service (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/coop/). Regional climate outlooks are based on the appropriate regional chapter.\r\nThe Texas drought of 2011 and 2012 provides a clear example of cascading impacts through interactions among the energy, water, and land resource sectors.2c8387dc-24b4-4293-b51c-46871cac064f,11d768c2-a4c6-479e-ae58-29cbeff601ce,f03c8590-8b20-442a-a603-dee6c3bf70e1,d52ec144-56fe-4272-9445-3cf302b289d0,c614ccf4-f962-4bd3-ace0-c73391431b16,f6620ec8-a9f9-4552-80f4-5381f5db4211 The U.S. Drought Monitor (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/) provides relevant historical data. Evidence also includes articles appearing in the public press95346703-7512-4bb0-8967-8dc89ec7acae and Internet media.7db38c4a-ece3-4a7d-ae2b-5e95b04c6ba7\r\n" href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/water-energy-land-use/finding/energy-land-water-interactions.yaml identifier: energy-land-water-interactions ordinal: 1 process: 'The authors met for a one-day face-to-face meeting, and held teleconferences approximately weekly from March through August 2012. They considered a variety of technical input documents, including a Technical Input Report prepared through an interagency process,552cc5f5-a7b3-4a64-8bee-98ae0cced150 and 59 other reports submitted through the Federal Register Notice request for public input. The key messages were selected based on expert judgment, derived from the set of examples assembled to demonstrate the character and consequences of interactions among the energy, water, and land resource sectors.' report_identifier: nca3 statement: 'Energy, water, and land systems interact in many ways. Climate change affects the individual sectors and their interactions; the combination of these factors affects climate change vulnerability as well as adaptation and mitigation options for different regions of the country.' uncertainties: "The Texas drought of 2011 and 2012 demonstrates the occurrence of cascading impacts involving the energy, land, and water sectors; however, the Texas example cannot be generalized to all parts of the country or to all impacts of climate change (for example, see Chapter 3 for flooding and energy system impacts). The Technical Input Report552cc5f5-a7b3-4a64-8bee-98ae0cced150 provides numerous additional examples and a general description of interactions that underlie cascading impacts between these resource sectors.\r\nThere are no major uncertainties regarding this key message. There are major uncertainties, however, in the magnitude of impacts in how decisions in one sector might affect another. The intensity of interactions will be difficult to assess under climate change.\r\n" uri: /report/nca3/chapter/water-energy-land-use/finding/energy-land-water-interactions url: ~ - chapter_identifier: water-energy-land-use confidence: 'Given the evidence base and remaining uncertainties, confidence is high. The primary limitation on confidence assigned to this key message is with respect to its generality and dependence on technological advances. Energy technology development has the potential to reduce water and land requirements, and to reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts. It is difficult to forecast success in this regard for technologies such as CCS that are still in early phases of development' evidence: "The key message and supporting text summarizes extensive evidence documented in the Technical Input Report (TIR): Climate and Energy-Water-Land System Interactions: Technical Report to the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment.552cc5f5-a7b3-4a64-8bee-98ae0cced150 Technical input reports (59) on a wide range of topics were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. \r\nSynthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 of the Climate Change Science Program,6ac1aea5-6b76-46e1-822e-664cb3d11e9a which informed the prior National Climate Assessment,e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a describes relationships among different future mixtures of energy sources, and associated radiative forcing of climate change, as a context for evaluating emissions mitigation options.\r\nEnergy, water, and land linkages represent constraints, risks, and opportunities for private/public planning and investment decisions. There are evolving water and land requirements for four energy technologies: natural gas from shale,2af3709d-81eb-48b7-9183-afc6c27015ea solar power,3d273a88-b8b4-48dc-ac84-8d7c3ae7db3e biofuels,9e8af8e6-bbef-489d-b963-dc7c8d3972a3,8770e028-6f1d-4d2d-887b-f8a3a033b3d0 and carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS).0ffe8043-c4c5-43aa-b3c9-8c80e143c582 Each of these four technologies could contribute to reducing U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases. These technologies illustrate energy, water, and land linkages and other complexities for the design, planning, and deployment of our energy future.\r\nEvidence for energy production and use are derived from U.S. government reports.70a7ccad-a525-412e-8572-325814906b45,e6d73a34-70a6-4cd0-a629-a3e7dd394e65 The contributions of hydraulic fracturing to natural gas production are based on a brief article by the Energy Information Administration2af3709d-81eb-48b7-9183-afc6c27015ea and a primer by the U.S. Department of Energy.7fbbe803-8d4a-479d-8720-920585f24743 Information about water and energy demands for utility-scale solar power facilities is derived from two major DOE reports.3d273a88-b8b4-48dc-ac84-8d7c3ae7db3e,b80498ce-9f36-4afb-a060-8716331b2041 Distribution of U.S. solar energy resources is from Web-based products of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (http://www.nrel.gov/gis/). On biofuels, there are government data on the scale of biomass-based energy,2af3709d-81eb-48b7-9183-afc6c27015ea and studies on water and land requirements and other social and environmental aspects.9e8af8e6-bbef-489d-b963-dc7c8d3972a3,8770e028-6f1d-4d2d-887b-f8a3a033b3d0 \r\n" href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/water-energy-land-use/finding/energy-dependence-on-land-water.yaml identifier: energy-dependence-on-land-water ordinal: 2 process: "The authors met for a one-day face-to-face meeting, and held teleconferences approximately weekly from March through August 2012. They considered a variety of technical input documents, including a Technical Input Report prepared through an interagency process,552cc5f5-a7b3-4a64-8bee-98ae0cced150 and 59 other reports submitted through the Federal Register Notice request for public input. The key messages were selected based on expert judgment, derived from the set of examples assembled to demonstrate the character and consequences of interactions among the energy, water, and land resource sectors.\r\n" report_identifier: nca3 statement: 'The dependence of energy systems on land and water supplies will influence the development of these systems and options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as well as their climate change vulnerability.' uncertainties: 'There are no major uncertainties regarding this key message. Progress in development and deployment of the energy technologies described has tended to follow a pattern: potential constraints arise because of dependence on water and land resources, but then these constraints motivate advances in technology to reduced dependence or result in adjustments of societal priorities. There are uncertainties in how energy systems’ dependence on water will be limited by other resources, such as land; uncertainties about the effects on emissions and the development and deployment of future energy technologies; and uncertainties about the impacts of climate change on energy systems.' uri: /report/nca3/chapter/water-energy-land-use/finding/energy-dependence-on-land-water url: ~ - chapter_identifier: water-energy-land-use confidence: 'Given the evidence base and remaining uncertainties, confidence is high. The primary limitation on confidence assigned to this key message is with respect to the explicit knowledge of the unique characteristics of each region with regards to impacts of climate change on energy, water, land, and the interactions among these sectors.' evidence: "The key message and supporting text summarizes extensive evidence documented in the Technical Input Report (TIR): Climate and Energy-Water-Land System Interactions: Technical Report to the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment.552cc5f5-a7b3-4a64-8bee-98ae0cced150 Technical input reports (59) on a wide range of topics were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. \r\nInteractions among energy, water, and land resource sectors can lead to stakeholder concerns that shape options for reducing vulnerability and thus for adapting to climate change. The Columbia River System provides a good example of an area where risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities are being jointly considered.429802a3-633d-447c-874c-250ae4ee0003,44b0f546-726b-4abb-9163-a09f0b893dc0 The 2011 Mississippi basin flooding, which shut down substations, provides another example of the interactions of energy, water, and land systems (Ch. 3: Water). For all multi-use river basins, understanding the combined vulnerability of energy, water, and land use to climate change is essential to planning for water management and climate change adaptation. \r\n" href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/water-energy-land-use/finding/joint-energy-water-land-consideration.yaml identifier: joint-energy-water-land-consideration ordinal: 3 process: "The authors met for a one-day face-to-face meeting, and held teleconferences approximately weekly from March through August 2012. They considered a variety of technical input documents, including a Technical Input Report prepared through an interagency process,552cc5f5-a7b3-4a64-8bee-98ae0cced150 and 59 other reports submitted through the Federal Register Notice request for public input. The key messages were selected based on expert judgment, derived from the set of examples assembled to demonstrate the character and consequences of interactions among the energy, water, and land resource sectors.\r\n" report_identifier: nca3 statement: 'Jointly considering risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities associated with energy, water, and land use is challenging, but can improve the identification and evaluation of options for reducing climate change impacts.' uncertainties: 'There are no major uncertainties regarding this key message; however, it is highly uncertain the extent to which local, state and national policies will impact options to reduce vulnerability to climate change.' uri: /report/nca3/chapter/water-energy-land-use/finding/joint-energy-water-land-consideration url: ~ - chapter_identifier: urban-systems-infrastructure-vulnerability confidence: 'Given the evidence base and remaining uncertainties, confidence is very high that climate change and its impacts threaten the well-being of urban residents in all regions of the U.S. Given the evidence base and remaining uncertainties, confidence is very high that essential local and regional infrastructure systems such as water, energy supply, and transportation will increasingly be compromised by interrelated climate change impacts.' evidence: 'Recent studies have reported that population and economic growth have made urban infrastructure more fragile and deficient,01b45a4a-2021-405d-a65b-2340e9ca9677,f0803451-5a89-474a-974f-99c13fdc725d with work projecting increased stresses due to climate change6584482e-b3b2-4cb9-83dd-ec57765a0d08 and increased costs of adaptation plans due to more extensive urban development.4c4641ef-54f0-4db0-a7c4-a461b5c0b01f Additionally, a few publications have assessed the main drivers of vulnerability46df8394-9868-427f-b2d4-6baa15a5d3f4,e25d67fc-3995-4b3b-952f-8135dc743086,a7e5b6c2-f086-46b7-86a3-931c740ea774 and the effects of the amalgamation of climate change stresses with other urban and infrastructure stressors.01b45a4a-2021-405d-a65b-2340e9ca9677' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/urban-systems-infrastructure-vulnerability/finding/climate-impacts-urban-residents.yaml identifier: climate-impacts-urban-residents ordinal: 1 process: 'In developing key messages, the report author team engaged in multiple technical discussions via teleconference. A consensus process was used to determine the final set of key messages, which are supported by extensive evidence documented in two Technical Report Inputs to the National Climate Assessment on urban systems, infrastructure, and vulnerability: 1) Climate Change and Infrastructure, Urban Systems, and Vulnerabilities: Technical Report for the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment f0803451-5a89-474a-974f-99c13fdc725d, and 2) U.S. Cities and Climate Change: Urban, Infrastructure, and Vulnerability Issues .01b45a4a-2021-405d-a65b-2340e9ca9677 Other Technical Input reports (56) on a wide range of topics were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. ' report_identifier: nca3 statement: 'Climate change and its impacts threaten the well-being of urban residents in all U.S. regions. Essential infrastructure systems such as water, energy supply, and transportation will increasingly be compromised by interrelated climate change impacts. The nation’s economy, security, and culture all depend on the resilience of urban infrastructure systems.' uncertainties: 'Given that population trends and infrastructure assessments are well established and documented, the largest uncertainties are associated with the rate and extent of potential climate change. Since the last National Climate Assessment,e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a recent publications have explored the driving factors of vulnerability in urban systems46df8394-9868-427f-b2d4-6baa15a5d3f4,e25d67fc-3995-4b3b-952f-8135dc743086,a7e5b6c2-f086-46b7-86a3-931c740ea774 and the effects of the combined effect of climate change and existing urban stressors.01b45a4a-2021-405d-a65b-2340e9ca9677' uri: /report/nca3/chapter/urban-systems-infrastructure-vulnerability/finding/climate-impacts-urban-residents url: ~ - chapter_identifier: urban-systems-infrastructure-vulnerability confidence: 'Given the evidence base and remaining uncertainties, confidence is very high that in urban settings, climate-related disruptions of services in one infrastructure system will almost always result in disruptions in one or more other infrastructure systems.' evidence: 'The interconnections among urban systems and infrastructures have been noted in the past,c96579ac-f2a9-4b9b-8604-596124508776 with recent work expanding on this principle to assess the risks this interconnectivity poses. One studydf8dbdfc-912f-40b7-88a7-b3acbf026856 explored the misconception of independent systems, and stressed instead the interactive and interdependent nature of systems. The effects of climate change on one system ultimately affect systems that are dependent upon it.8a615831-3803-46e4-b6b2-b677bd3fdb4b One of the foundational Technical Input Reports examined the economic effects from climate change and how they will affect urban areas.f0803451-5a89-474a-974f-99c13fdc725d Noted examples of this interconnectivity can be found in a number of publications concerning Hurricane Katrina,e305f6dc-41e0-4c2f-9eeb-9e3ca69dcb98 intense weather in New York City,31a7ff37-2411-463b-a2ea-5752d0b29edc,f041f900-42eb-4e0e-ba8b-284b731f2e4d and the vulnerability of U.S. oil refineries and electric power plants.f0803451-5a89-474a-974f-99c13fdc725d,996f4616-6ae6-4248-9351-f28215ac556c ' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/urban-systems-infrastructure-vulnerability/finding/infrastructure-service-disruptions.yaml identifier: infrastructure-service-disruptions ordinal: 2 process: 'In developing key messages, the report author team engaged in multiple technical discussions via teleconference. A consensus process was used to determine the final set of key messages, which are supported by extensive evidence documented in two Technical Report Inputs to the National Climate Assessment on urban systems, infrastructure, and vulnerability: 1) Climate Change and Infrastructure, Urban Systems, and Vulnerabilities: Technical Report for the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment f0803451-5a89-474a-974f-99c13fdc725d, and 2) U.S. Cities and Climate Change: Urban, Infrastructure, and Vulnerability Issues .01b45a4a-2021-405d-a65b-2340e9ca9677 Other Technical Input reports (56) on a wide range of topics were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. ' report_identifier: nca3 statement: 'In urban settings, climate-related disruptions of services in one infrastructure system will almost always result in disruptions in one or more other infrastructure systems.' uncertainties: "Recent work has delved deeper into the interconnectivity of urban systems and infrastructure,f0803451-5a89-474a-974f-99c13fdc725d,8a615831-3803-46e4-b6b2-b677bd3fdb4b and has expressed the importance of understanding these interactions when adapting to climate change.\r\nThe extensive number of infrastructure assessments has resulted in system interdependencies and cascade effects being well documented. Therefore, the most significant uncertainties are associated with the rate and extent of potential climate change." uri: /report/nca3/chapter/urban-systems-infrastructure-vulnerability/finding/infrastructure-service-disruptions url: ~ - chapter_identifier: urban-systems-infrastructure-vulnerability confidence: 'Given the evidence base and remaining uncertainties, confidence is very high that the climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity of urban residents and communities are influenced by pronounced social inequalities that reflect age, ethnicity, gender, income, health, and (dis)ability differences' evidence: 'The topic of social vulnerability has been extensively studied,b861c498-f85c-49af-8cdc-4dc4aea127f5,796c4617-7dcd-433e-bb0e-805cdab4c136,d1f166f4-f6a2-4c5a-a884-e01c2f847715,eb5203ca-5d71-48af-8952-09b461caa155 with some work detailing the social characteristics that are the most influential.827dcea9-fecc-466b-9a35-15862fe496a7,4911d097-60c1-4af8-b0ba-aeb1879f05b4,8f130c5e-1565-41f1-bd2e-47ba49c43d2a More recent work has addressed the vulnerability of populations to climate change6d7209f8-ba52-4dc1-a779-aae07faafe12 and how social inequalities influence capacity to adapt to climate change.7de045e2-16db-4f08-884f-58acf3c1f782 Some empirical studies of U.S. urban areas were explored concerning these issues.a7e5b6c2-f086-46b7-86a3-931c740ea774' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/urban-systems-infrastructure-vulnerability/finding/urban-vulnerability-adaptive-capacity.yaml identifier: urban-vulnerability-adaptive-capacity ordinal: 3 process: 'In developing key messages, the report author team engaged in multiple technical discussions via teleconference. A consensus process was used to determine the final set of key messages, which are supported by extensive evidence documented in two Technical Report Inputs to the National Climate Assessment on urban systems, infrastructure, and vulnerability: 1) Climate Change and Infrastructure, Urban Systems, and Vulnerabilities: Technical Report for the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment f0803451-5a89-474a-974f-99c13fdc725d, and 2) U.S. Cities and Climate Change: Urban, Infrastructure, and Vulnerability Issues .01b45a4a-2021-405d-a65b-2340e9ca9677 Other Technical Input reports (56) on a wide range of topics were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input.' report_identifier: nca3 statement: 'Climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity of urban residents and communities are influenced by pronounced social inequalities that reflect age, ethnicity, gender, income, health, and (dis)ability differences.' uncertainties: 'Given that population trends and socioeconomic factors associated with vulnerability and adaptive capacity are well established and documented, the largest uncertainties are associated with the rate and extent of potential climate change. Recent work has addressed the social vulnerabilities to climate change at a more detailed level than in the past,796c4617-7dcd-433e-bb0e-805cdab4c136,6d7209f8-ba52-4dc1-a779-aae07faafe12 providing information on the constraints that social vulnerabilities can have on climate change adaptation.' uri: /report/nca3/chapter/urban-systems-infrastructure-vulnerability/finding/urban-vulnerability-adaptive-capacity url: ~ - chapter_identifier: urban-systems-infrastructure-vulnerability confidence: 'Given the evidence base and remaining uncertainties, confidence is very high that city government agencies and organizations have started urban adaptation efforts that focus on infrastructure systems and public health.' evidence: 'Urban adaptation is already underway with a number of cities developing plans at the citya2875003-195d-4ac8-8b94-63b7618af926,fab96b98-58f0-43b2-a81c-e481b25f8e59,65812f08-b34e-422c-a712-c5a585df31e0,d320ff25-df64-4f1c-9612-d519b5e01fba,f1c255b6-64cf-427b-81d4-7e0165da1304,a1e821b2-1a28-481e-9e20-fa590614b7fd and state levels,a2875003-195d-4ac8-8b94-63b7618af926 with some integrating adaptation into community plans01b45a4a-2021-405d-a65b-2340e9ca9677 and sharing information and assessing potential impacts.027aad4c-611b-48e1-89d2-da0769617f1a Some recent publications have explored how incentives and administrative and financial support can benefit climate adaptation through policy planning at the local level01b45a4a-2021-405d-a65b-2340e9ca9677,f0803451-5a89-474a-974f-99c13fdc725d,d9912bac-63ce-4f5a-b247-3e4c5860d722 and by engaging the public.3053a9fd-d457-4751-87ef-1df2cc1f0df5,fb3340c9-ea83-4747-9aae-44efb39ea968,b616bf7f-4f18-41df-b67d-0229c158ffa4,4e3145d7-c3ba-457b-91ce-4ea7e0256c39 Barriers exist that can hinder the adaptation process, which has been demonstrated through publications assessing the availability of scientific dataa2875003-195d-4ac8-8b94-63b7618af926,50bb7a05-57dc-4bd5-bc8e-706ab08cfc6d that is integral to the evaluation and planning process,3aa8f188-8726-4b01-a47e-24a315c00f4e,bc2ae3c0-a4e9-4e91-896e-832bf916e88b uncertainty in the climate system and modeling techniques,7bee514d-97da-4482-b5b3-0c98223962a4,41514fcf-41dc-492b-9989-cbc979fc00a2 and the challenges of gaining support and commitment from local officials.a2875003-195d-4ac8-8b94-63b7618af926,65ce3b87-d63b-4582-a9b5-f25510b64e97' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/urban-systems-infrastructure-vulnerability/finding/urban-adaptation-plans.yaml identifier: urban-adaptation-plans ordinal: 4 process: 'In developing key messages, the report author team engaged in multiple technical discussions via teleconference. A consensus process was used to determine the final set of key messages, which are supported by extensive evidence documented in two Technical Report Inputs to the National Climate Assessment on urban systems, infrastructure, and vulnerability: 1) Climate Change and Infrastructure, Urban Systems, and Vulnerabilities: Technical Report for the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment f0803451-5a89-474a-974f-99c13fdc725d, and 2) U.S. Cities and Climate Change: Urban, Infrastructure, and Vulnerability Issues .01b45a4a-2021-405d-a65b-2340e9ca9677 Other Technical Input reports (56) on a wide range of topics were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. ' report_identifier: nca3 statement: 'City government agencies and organizations have started adaptation plans that focus on infrastructure systems and public health. To be successful, these adaptation efforts require cooperative private sector and governmental activities, but institutions face many barriers to implementing coordinated efforts.' uncertainties: 'Besides uncertainties associated with the rate and extent of potential climate change, uncertainties emerge from the fact that, to date, there have been few extended case studies examining how U.S. cities are responding to climate change (<10 studies). Furthermore, only one large-scale survey of U.S. cites has been conducted for which results have been published and widely available.a2875003-195d-4ac8-8b94-63b7618af926' uri: /report/nca3/chapter/urban-systems-infrastructure-vulnerability/finding/urban-adaptation-plans url: ~ - chapter_identifier: tribal-indigenous-native-lands-resources confidence: 'Based on the evidence and remaining uncertainties, confidence is very high that observed and future impacts from climate change, such as increased frequency and intensity of wildfires, higher temperatures, changes in sea ice, and ecosystem changes, such as forest loss and habitat damage, are threatening Native American and Alaska Natives’ access to traditional foods such as salmon, shellfish, crops, and marine mammals, which have provided sustenance as well as cultural, economic, medicinal, and community health for countless generations. ' evidence: 'The key message and supporting chapter text summarize extensive evidence documented in more than 200 technical input reports on a wide range of topics that were received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. Numerous peer-reviewed publications describe loss of biodiversity, impacts on culturally important native plants and animals, increases in invasive species, bark beetle damage to forests, and increased risk of forest fires that have been observed across the United States.debdf209-4050-4706-965c-09cff7ec353b,842903de-6ded-43d7-9f25-19149a85349e,990ae60c-a393-4383-b3ca-604ec576bda8,b3629fab-c342-4017-bf97-459becd4d640,e061ef38-98af-418f-8a2a-6a60fabda25e,7bc1ebe9-955f-4c9f-a54c-f718e354d5ca Climate drivers associated with this key message are also discussed in Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate. There are also many relevant and recent peer-reviewed publications0a6d16f1-2362-46a1-8bfa-622dc2a43268,6848eec2-534b-4629-967c-53d8530089a3,debdf209-4050-4706-965c-09cff7ec353b,dfd0d0e9-749a-460b-876d-f2b2cbe90acd,e061ef38-98af-418f-8a2a-6a60fabda25e,7bc1ebe9-955f-4c9f-a54c-f718e354d5ca,c1162288-6379-4b60-b573-d0f8482d8fa0 describing the northward migration of the boreal forest and changes in the distribution and density of wildlife species that have been observed. Observed impacts on plant and animal species important to traditional foods, ceremonies, medicinal, cultural and economic well-being, including species loss and shifts in species range, are well-documented.0a6d16f1-2362-46a1-8bfa-622dc2a43268,6848eec2-534b-4629-967c-53d8530089a3,debdf209-4050-4706-965c-09cff7ec353b,55866e23-04c0-406a-aee0-6df58cde18be,842903de-6ded-43d7-9f25-19149a85349e,990ae60c-a393-4383-b3ca-604ec576bda8,bbc3c75e-6c21-4e60-8285-514cde885865,3bec0032-e5a0-4ba7-8903-9c41dd2a2862,490ea072-36e7-4187-87ab-c91d16dac4c8,e061ef38-98af-418f-8a2a-6a60fabda25e' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/tribal-indigenous-native-lands-resources/finding/food-access-impacts-native-health.yaml identifier: food-access-impacts-native-health ordinal: 1 process: 'A central component of the assessment process was participation by members of the Chapter Author Team in a number of climate change meetings attended by indigenous peoples and other interested parties, focusing on issues relevant to tribal and indigenous peoples. These meetings included: Oklahoma Inter-Tribal Meeting on Climate Variability and Change held on December 12, 2011, at the National Weather Center, Norman, OK, attended by 73 people.7fbb768c-d8cf-48a5-88b4-dddb6d254013 Indigenous Knowledge and Education (IKE) Hui Climate Change and Indigenous Cultures forum held in January 2012 in Hawai‘i and attended by 36 people.a55e1352-b4c6-42f8-bafa-a920c9e1107b Alaska Forum on the Environment held from February 6-10, 2012, at the Dena’ina Convention Center in Anchorage, Alaska, and attended by about 1400 people with approximately 30 to 60 people per session.0808ea70-a152-4f50-abda-90370beb3632 Stories of Change: Coastal Louisiana Tribal Communities’ Experiences of a Transforming Environment, a workshop held from January 22-27, 2012, in Pointe-au-Chein, Louisiana, and attended by 47 people.bbc3c75e-6c21-4e60-8285-514cde885865 American Indian Alaska Native Climate Change Working Group 2012 Spring Meeting held from April 23–24, 2012, at the Desert Diamond Hotel-Casino in Tucson, Arizona, and attended by 80 people.2d423414-dc26-4edc-85e0-6f99bdc6283c First Stewards Symposium. First Stewards: Coastal Peoples Address Climate Change. National Museum of the American Indian, Washington DC. July 17-20, 2012.705965c5-ad05-4327-b35f-a7118a8f41a8 In developing key messages, the Chapter Author Team engaged in multiple technical discussions via teleconferences from August 2011 to March 2012 as they reviewed more than 200 technical inputs provided by the public, as well as other published literature and professional judgment. Subsequently, the Chapter Author Team teleconferenced weekly between March and July 2012 for expert deliberations of draft key messages by the authors. Each key message was defended by the entire author team before being selected for inclusion in the chapter report. These discussions were supported by targeted consultation with additional experts by the lead author of each message.' report_identifier: nca3 statement: 'Observed and future impacts from climate change threaten Native Peoples’ access to traditional foods such as fish, game, and wild and cultivated crops, which have provided sustenance as well as cultural, economic, medicinal, and community health for generations.' uncertainties: 'A key uncertainty is how indigenous people will adapt to climate change, given their reliance on local, wild foods and the isolated nature of some communities, coupled with their varied preparedness and limited ability to deal with wildfires. Increased wildfire occurrences may affect tribal homes, safety, economy, culturally important species, medicinal plants, traditional foods, and cultural sites. There is uncertainty as to the extent that climate change will affect Native American and Alaska Natives’ access to traditional foods such as salmon, shellfish, crops, and marine mammals, which have provided sustenance as well as cultural, economic, medicinal, and community health for countless generations.' uri: /report/nca3/chapter/tribal-indigenous-native-lands-resources/finding/food-access-impacts-native-health url: ~ - chapter_identifier: tribal-indigenous-native-lands-resources confidence: |- Based on the evidence and remaining uncertainties, confidence is very high that decreases in water quality and quantity are affecting Native Americans and Alaska Natives’ drinking water supplies, food, cultures, ceremonies, and traditional ways of life. Based upon extensive evidence, there is very high confidence that Native communities’ vulnerabilities and lack of capacity to adapt to climate change are exacerbated by historical and contemporary federal and state land-use policies and practices, political marginalization, legal issues associated with tribal water rights, water infrastructure deficiencies, and poor socioeconomic conditions. Chapter 12: Indigenous Peoples, Lands, and Resources Key Message Process: See key message #1. evidence: |- The key message and supporting chapter text summarizes extensive evidence documented in more than 200 technical input reports on a wide range of topics that were received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. There are numerous examples of tribal observations of changes in precipitation, rainfall patterns, and storm intensity and impacts on surface water features, agriculture, grazing, medicinal and culturally important plants and animals, and water resources.6848eec2-534b-4629-967c-53d8530089a3,debdf209-4050-4706-965c-09cff7ec353b,55866e23-04c0-406a-aee0-6df58cde18be,842903de-6ded-43d7-9f25-19149a85349e,94694c3f-1703-4387-b6e7-114a8d04e3de,e061ef38-98af-418f-8a2a-6a60fabda25e,953476ae-1357-48a5-99d8-1daf963f0a3c,7bc1ebe9-955f-4c9f-a54c-f718e354d5ca,bc2f63ad-916f-466f-9c79-f3304447e3a2,9711f2e3-f3b1-4d25-bc0a-47fd17b56e41,9f68d45c-f1ef-41f9-8593-b848ad8e08bb,c1162288-6379-4b60-b573-d0f8482d8fa0 Examples of ceremonies are included in the Oklahoma Inter-Tribal Meeting on Climate Variability and Change Meeting Summary Report.7fbb768c-d8cf-48a5-88b4-dddb6d254013 Water is used for some ceremonies, so it can be problematic when there is not enough at the tribe’s disposal.e061ef38-98af-418f-8a2a-6a60fabda25e,7fbb768c-d8cf-48a5-88b4-dddb6d254013,c1162288-6379-4b60-b573-d0f8482d8fa0 More than one tribe at the meeting also expressed how heat has been a problem during ceremonies because the older citizens cannot go into lodges that lack air conditioning.7fbb768c-d8cf-48a5-88b4-dddb6d254013 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/tribal-indigenous-native-lands-resources/finding/native-life-affected-by-water-change.yaml identifier: native-life-affected-by-water-change ordinal: 2 process: |-2 A central component of the assessment process was participation by members of the Chapter Author Team in a number of climate change meetings attended by indigenous peoples and other interested parties, focusing on issues relevant to tribal and indigenous peoples. These meetings included: Oklahoma Inter-Tribal Meeting on Climate Variability and Change held on December 12, 2011, at the National Weather Center, Norman, OK, attended by 73 people.7fbb768c-d8cf-48a5-88b4-dddb6d254013 Indigenous Knowledge and Education (IKE) Hui Climate Change and Indigenous Cultures forum held in January 2012 in Hawai‘i and attended by 36 people.a55e1352-b4c6-42f8-bafa-a920c9e1107b Alaska Forum on the Environment held from February 6-10, 2012, at the Dena’ina Convention Center in Anchorage, Alaska, and attended by about 1400 people with approximately 30 to 60 people per session.0808ea70-a152-4f50-abda-90370beb3632 Stories of Change: Coastal Louisiana Tribal Communities’ Experiences of a Transforming Environment, a workshop held from January 22-27, 2012, in Pointe-au-Chein, Louisiana, and attended by 47 people.bbc3c75e-6c21-4e60-8285-514cde885865 American Indian Alaska Native Climate Change Working Group 2012 Spring Meeting held from April 23–24, 2012, at the Desert Diamond Hotel-Casino in Tucson, Arizona, and attended by 80 people.2d423414-dc26-4edc-85e0-6f99bdc6283c report_identifier: nca3 statement: 'A significant decrease in water quality and quantity due to a variety of factors, including climate change, is affecting drinking water, food, and cultures. Native communities’ vulnerabilities and limited capacity to adapt to water-related challenges are exacerbated by historical and contemporary government policies and poor socioeconomic conditions.' uncertainties: |- There is limited data to establish baseline climatic conditions on tribal lands, and many tribes do not have sufficient capacity to monitor changing conditions.a5871479-b466-4af9-8cf6-6a5f8f94dd39,e061ef38-98af-418f-8a2a-6a60fabda25e,bc2f63ad-916f-466f-9c79-f3304447e3a2,c1162288-6379-4b60-b573-d0f8482d8fa0 Without monitoring, tribal decision-makers lack the data needed to quantify and evaluate the current conditions and emerging trends in precipitation, streamflow, and soil moisture, and to plan and manage resources accordingly.a5871479-b466-4af9-8cf6-6a5f8f94dd39,e061ef38-98af-418f-8a2a-6a60fabda25e,9711f2e3-f3b1-4d25-bc0a-47fd17b56e41,c1162288-6379-4b60-b573-d0f8482d8fa0 Water infrastructure is in disrepair or lacking on some reservations.94694c3f-1703-4387-b6e7-114a8d04e3de,5552509e-9af3-46dd-8920-78083bee05bc There is an overall lack of financial resources to support basic water infrastructure on tribal lands, such as is found in the Southwest.bc2f63ad-916f-466f-9c79-f3304447e3a2 Tribes that rely on water resources to maintain their cultures, religions, and life ways are especially vulnerable to climate change. Monitoring data is needed to establish baseline climatic conditions and to monitor changing conditions on tribal lands. Uncertainty associated with undefined tribal water rights makes it difficult to determine strategies to deal with water resource issues.5552509e-9af3-46dd-8920-78083bee05bc uri: /report/nca3/chapter/tribal-indigenous-native-lands-resources/finding/native-life-affected-by-water-change url: ~