--- - attributes: ~ caption: "Generalized Adaptation Process\r\n (Figure source: adapted from NRC\r\n 201065ce3b87-d63b-4582-a9b5-f25510b64e97)." chapter_identifier: adaptation create_dt: 2012-10-05T08:18:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/adaptation/figure/adaptation-process.yaml identifier: adaptation-process lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 3 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'adapted from NRC, 2010' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Adaptation Process uri: /report/nca3/chapter/adaptation/figure/adaptation-process url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/response-strategies/adaptation/graphics/adaptation-process usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: ~ chapter_identifier: adaptation create_dt: ~ href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/adaptation/figure/adaptation-activity.yaml identifier: adaptation-activity lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 4 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Adaptation Activity uri: /report/nca3/chapter/adaptation/figure/adaptation-activity url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/response-strategies/adaptation/graphics/adaptation-activity usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'U.S. Drought Monitor Map accessed on August 20, 2012. The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced in partnership between the national Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC-UNL.' chapter_identifier: adaptation create_dt: 2014-03-14T13:30:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/adaptation/figure/us-drought-monitor.yaml identifier: us-drought-monitor lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 5 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: 'U.S. Drought Monitor August 14, 2012' uri: /report/nca3/chapter/adaptation/figure/us-drought-monitor url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/response-strategies/adaptation/graphics/us-drought-monitor-august-14-2012 usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: "Northwoods Climate Change Response\r\n Framework Region (Figure Source: USDA Forest Service\r\n 20124772b8ff-e82b-47fd-8bfb-8e6405927beb)." chapter_identifier: adaptation create_dt: 2013-08-02T09:41:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/adaptation/figure/northwoods-climate-change-response-framework.yaml identifier: northwoods-climate-change-response-framework lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 6 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework Region uri: /report/nca3/chapter/adaptation/figure/northwoods-climate-change-response-framework url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/response-strategies/adaptation/graphics/northwoods-climate-change-response-framework-region usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Left: A stylized representation of the natural greenhouse effect. Most of the sun’s radiation reaches the Earth’s surface. Naturally occurring heat-trapping gases, including water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, do not absorb the short-wave energy from the sun but do absorb the long-wave energy re-radiated from the Earth, keeping the planet much warmer than it would be otherwise. Right: In this stylized representation of the human-intensified greenhouse effect, human activities, predominantly the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), are increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases, increasing the natural greenhouse effect and thus Earth’s temperature. (Figure source: modified from National Park Servicea6a29141-7f5c-4353-b0e0-38b8cc2f9dcf).' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2013-10-23T10:33:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/human-influence-on-the-greenhouse-effect.yaml identifier: human-influence-on-the-greenhouse-effect lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 1 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'modified from National Park Servicea6a29141-7f5c-4353-b0e0-38b8cc2f9dcf' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Human Influence on the Greenhouse Effect uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/human-influence-on-the-greenhouse-effect url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/human-influence-greenhouse-effect usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'This figure summarizes results of measurements taken from satellites of the amount of energy coming in to and going out of Earth’s climate system. It demonstrates that our scientific understanding of how the greenhouse effect operates, is, in fact, accurate, based on real world measurements. (Figure source: modified from Stephens et al. 20128e72ae73-6d3e-4995-8c96-764a82c9e6fb).' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2013-08-02T10:55:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/earths-energy-balance.yaml identifier: earths-energy-balance lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 2 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'modified from Stephens et al. 20128e72ae73-6d3e-4995-8c96-764a82c9e6fb' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Earth’s Energy Balance uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/earths-energy-balance url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/earth%E2%80%99s-energy-balance usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Global carbon emissions from burning coal, oil, and gas and producing cement (1850-2009). These emissions account for about 80% of the total emissions of carbon from human activities, with land-use changes (like cutting down forests) accounting for the other 20% in recent decades (Data from Boden et al. 20128d4bc0a5-a600-446c-aca9-92467114bd9d).' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2013-10-28T13:29:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/carbon-emissions-in-the-industrial-age.yaml identifier: carbon-emissions-in-the-industrial-age lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 3 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'Boden et al. 20128d4bc0a5-a600-446c-aca9-92467114bd9d' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Carbon Emissions in the Industrial Age uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/carbon-emissions-in-the-industrial-age url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/carbon-emissions-industrial-age usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Present-day atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide are notably higher than their pre-industrial averages of 280, 0.7, and 0.27 parts per million (ppm) by volume, respectively (left). Air sampling data from 1958 to 2013 show long-term increases due to human activities as well as short-term variations due to natural biogeochemical processes and seasonal vegetation growth (right). (Figure sources: (left) Forster et al. 2007f2b357c2-f4ae-4868-a058-e48fbdbb1303; (right) Scripps Institution of Oceanography and NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory).' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2013-11-19T17:32:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/heattrapping-gas-levels.yaml identifier: heattrapping-gas-levels lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 4 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Heat-Trapping Gas Levels uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/heattrapping-gas-levels url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/heat-trapping-gas-levels usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Air bubbles trapped in an Antarctic ice core extending back 800,000 years document the atmosphere’s changing carbon dioxide concentration. Over long periods, natural factors have caused atmospheric CO 2 concentrations to vary between about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). As a result of human activities since the Industrial Revolution, CO 2 levels have increased to 400 ppm, higher than any time in at least the last one million years. By 2100, additional emissions from human activities are projected to increase CO 2 levels to 420 ppm under a very low scenario, which would require immediate and sharp emissions reductions (RCP 2.6), and 935 ppm under a higher scenario, which assumes continued increases in emissions (RCP 8.5). This figure shows the historical composite CO 2 record based on measurements from the EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) Dome C and Dronning Maud Land sites and from the Vostok station.' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2013-10-23T15:17:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-levels.yaml identifier: atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-levels lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 5 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-levels url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-levels usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Different factors have exerted a warming influence (red bars) or a cooling influence (blue bars) on the planet. The warming or cooling influence of each factor is measured in terms of the change in radiative forcing in watts per square meter by 2005 relative to 1750. This figure includes all the major human-induced factors as well as the sun, the only major natural factor with a long-term effect on climate. The cooling effect of individual volcanoes is also natural, but is relatively short-lived and so is not included here. Aerosols refer to tiny particles, with their direct effects including, for example, the warming influence of black carbon (soot) and cooling influence of sulfate particles from coal burning. Indirect effects of aerosols include their effect on clouds. The net radiative influence from natural and human influences is a strong warming, predominantly from human activities. The thin lines on each bar show the range of uncertainty. (Figure source: adapted from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 2.20 (A), Cambridge University Pressc54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682).' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2013-11-19T17:05:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/relative-strengths-of-warming-and-cooling-influences.yaml identifier: relative-strengths-of-warming-and-cooling-influences lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 6 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'adapted from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 2.20 (A), Cambridge University Pressc54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Relative Strengths of Warming and Cooling Influences uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/relative-strengths-of-warming-and-cooling-influences url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/relative-strengths-warming-and-cooling usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Changes in the mix and increasing diversity of technologies used to observe climate (IGY is the International Geophysical Year). (Figure source: adapted from Brönnimann et al. 2007cbde995d-cb2f-4be8-879b-666e25bd29a1).' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2012-12-20T14:32:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/development-of-observing-capabilities.yaml identifier: development-of-observing-capabilities lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 7 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'adapted from Brönnimann et al. 2007cbde995d-cb2f-4be8-879b-666e25bd29a1' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Development of Observing Capabilities uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/development-of-observing-capabilities url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/development-observing-capabilities usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Three different global surface temperature records all show increasing trends over the last century. The lines show annual differences in temperature relative to the 1901-1960 average. Differences among data sets, due to choices in data selection, analysis, and averaging techniques, do not affect the conclusion that global surface temperatures are increasing. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2013-10-22T09:54:37 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/observed-change-in-global-average-temperature.yaml identifier: observed-change-in-global-average-temperature lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 8 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Observed Change in Global Average Temperature uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/observed-change-in-global-average-temperature url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/observed-change-global-average-temperature usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Surface temperature trends for the period 1901-2012 (top) and 1979-2012 (bottom) from the National Climatic Data Center’s (NCDC) surface temperature product. The relatively coarse resolution of these maps does not capture the finer details associated with mountains, coastlines, and other small-scale effects. (Figure source: updated from Vose et al. 201256ff58db-e758-4042-9111-22a13e4758a2).' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2013-10-23T15:20:05 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/temperature-trends-past-century-past-30-years.yaml identifier: temperature-trends-past-century-past-30-years lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 9 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'updated from Vose et al. 201256ff58db-e758-4042-9111-22a13e4758a2' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: 'Temperature Trends: Past Century, Past 30+ Years' uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/temperature-trends-past-century-past-30-years url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/temperature-trends-past-century-past-30-years usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Observed changes, as analyzed by many independent groups in different ways, of a range of climate indicators. All of these are in fact changing as expected in a warming world. Further details underpinning this diagram can be found at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/. (Figure source: updated from Kennedy et al. 201025578196-95d0-4ac7-b889-0e863985423d).' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2013-10-23T15:14:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/indicators-of-warming-from-multiple-data-sets.yaml identifier: indicators-of-warming-from-multiple-data-sets lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 10 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'updated from Kennedy et al. 201025578196-95d0-4ac7-b889-0e863985423d' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Indicators of Warming from Multiple Data Sets uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/indicators-of-warming-from-multiple-data-sets url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/indicators-warming-multiple-data-sets usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Global precipitation trends for the period 1901-2012 (top) and 1979-2012 (bottom). (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2013-10-23T15:11:28 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/precipitation-trends-past-century-past-30-years.yaml identifier: precipitation-trends-past-century-past-30-years lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 11 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: 'Precipitation Trends: Past Century, Past 30+ Years' uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/precipitation-trends-past-century-past-30-years url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/precipitation-trends-past-century-past-30 usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Changes in the temperature of the Northern Hemisphere from surface observations (in red) and from proxies (in black; uncertainty range represented by shading) relative to 1961-1990 average temperature. These analyses suggest that current temperatures are higher than seen globally in at least the last 1700 years, and that the last decade (2001 to 2010) was the warmest decade on record. (Figure source: adapted from Mann et al. 2008ade3fd09-603e-4fae-b252-1a4142392ea0).' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2013-10-23T15:05:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/1700-years-of-global-temperature-from-proxy-data.yaml identifier: 1700-years-of-global-temperature-from-proxy-data lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 12 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'adapted from Mann et al. 2008ade3fd09-603e-4fae-b252-1a4142392ea0' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: 1700 years of Temperature from Proxy Data uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/1700-years-of-global-temperature-from-proxy-data url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/1700-years-temperature-change-proxy-data usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Typical January-March weather conditions and atmospheric circulation (jet streams shown by red and blue arrows) during La Niña and El Niño conditions. Cloud symbols show areas that are wetter than normal. During La Niña, winters tend to be unusually cold in Alaska and western Canada, and dry throughout the southern United States. El Niño leads to unusually warm winter conditions in the northern U.S. and wetter than average conditions across the southern U.S. (Figure source: NOAA).' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2012-12-27T15:49:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/la-nina-and-el-nino-patterns.yaml identifier: la-nina-and-el-nino-patterns lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 13 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: NOAA submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: La Niña and El Niño Patterns uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/la-nina-and-el-nino-patterns url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/la-ni%C3%B1a-and-el-ni%C3%B1o-patterns usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Trends in globally and annually averaged temperature when considering whether it was an El Niño year, a La Niña year, or a neutral year (no El Niño or La Niña event). The average global temperature is 0.4ºF higher in El Niño years than in La Niña years. However, all trends show the same significant increase in temperature over the past 45 years. The years for the short-term cooling effect following the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption are not included in the trends. (Figure source: adapted from John Nielsen-Gammon 2012.42706a4a-03d5-4897-91bc-27116c544731 Data from NASA GISS temperature datasetaf343288-2245-4aa9-8675-e8a0e7c05075 and Climate Prediction Center Niño 3.4 index518a1c9b-c1d5-4b89-948c-9fe2bc51b2c5).' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2013-10-23T14:57:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/warming-trend-and-effects-of-el-nino-la-nina.yaml identifier: warming-trend-and-effects-of-el-nino-la-nina lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 14 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'adapted from John Nielsen-Gammon 2012.42706a4a-03d5-4897-91bc-27116c544731 Data from NASA GISS temperature datasetaf343288-2245-4aa9-8675-e8a0e7c05075 and Climate Prediction Center Niño 3.4 index518a1c9b-c1d5-4b89-948c-9fe2bc51b2c5' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Warming Trend and Effects of El Niño/La Niña uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/warming-trend-and-effects-of-el-nino-la-nina url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/warming-trend-and-effects-el-ni%C3%B1ola-ni%C3%B1a usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Observations of global mean surface air temperature show that although there can be short periods with little or even no significant upward trend (red trend lines in shaded areas), global temperature continues to rise unabated over long-term climate timescales (black trend line). The recent period, 1998-2012, is another example of a short-term pause embedded in the underlying warming trend. The differences between short-term trends and the underlying (long-term) trend are often associated with modes of natural variability such as El Niño and La Niña that redistribute heat between the ocean and atmosphere. (Data from NOAA NCDC).' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2013-10-23T14:55:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/longterm-warming-and-shortterm-variation.yaml identifier: longterm-warming-and-shortterm-variation lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 15 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: NOAA NCDC submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Long-Term Warming and Short-Term Variation uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/longterm-warming-and-shortterm-variation url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/long-term-warming-and-short-term-variation usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Simplified image of the methodology that goes into detection and attribution of climate changes. The natural factors considered usually include changes in the sun’s output and volcanic eruptions, as well as natural modes of variability such as El Niño and La Niña. Human factors include the emissions of heat-trapping gases and particles as well as clearing of forests and other land-use changes. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2012-04-05T10:03:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/detection-and-attribution-as-forensics.yaml identifier: detection-and-attribution-as-forensics lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 16 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Detection and Attribution as Forensics uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/detection-and-attribution-as-forensics url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/detection-and-attribution-forensics usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Figure shows examples of the many aspects of the climate system in which changes have been formally attributed to human emissions of heat-trapping gases and particles by studies published in peer-reviewed science literature. For example, observed changes in surface air temperature at both the global and continental levels, particularly over the past 50 years or so, cannot be explained without including the effects of human activities. While there are undoubtedly many natural factors that have affected climate in the past and continue to do so today, human activities are the dominant contributor to recently observed climate changes. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC).' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2012-04-11T14:59:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/human-influences-apparent-in-many-aspects-of-the-changing-climate.yaml identifier: human-influences-apparent-in-many-aspects-of-the-changing-climate lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 17 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: NOAA NCDC submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Human Influences Apparent in Many Aspects of the Changing Climate uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/human-influences-apparent-in-many-aspects-of-the-changing-climate url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/human-influences-apparent-many-aspects usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Changes in surface air temperature at the continental and global scales can only be explained by the influence of human activities on climate. The black line depicts the annually averaged observed changes. The blue shading shows climate model simulations that include the effects of natural (solar and volcanic) forcing only. The orange shading shows climate model simulations that include the effects of both natural and human contributions. These analyses demonstrate that the observed changes, both globally and on a continent-by-continent basis, are caused by the influence of human activities on climate. (Figure source: updated from Jones et al. 2013ee56b7fa-1961-49cc-aeea-823510341d5f).' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2013-10-23T10:49:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/only-human-influence-can-explain-recent-warming.yaml identifier: only-human-influence-can-explain-recent-warming lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 18 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'updated from Jones et al. 2013ee56b7fa-1961-49cc-aeea-823510341d5f' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Only Human Influence Can Explain Recent Warming uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/only-human-influence-can-explain-recent-warming url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/only-human-influence-can-explain-recent usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Two families of scenarios are commonly used for future climate projections: the 2000 Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES, left) and the 2010 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, right). The SRES scenarios are named by family (A1, A2, B1, and B2), where each family is designed around a set of consistent assumptions: for example, a world that is more integrated or more divided. In contrast, the RCP scenarios are simply numbered according to the change in radiative forcing (from +2.6 to +8.5 watts per square meter) that results by 2100. This figure compares SRES and RCP annual carbon emissions (top), carbon dioxide equivalent levels in the atmosphere (middle), and temperature change that would result from the central estimate (lines) and the likely range (shaded areas) of climate sensitivity (bottom). At the top end of the range, the older SRES scenarios are slightly higher. Comparing carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperature change between the SRES and RCP scenarios, SRES A1fI is similar to RCP 8.5; SRES A1B to RCP 6.0 and SRES B1 to RCP 4.5. The RCP 2.6 scenario is much lower than any SRES scenario because it includes the option of using policies to achieve net negative carbon dioxide emissions before end of century, while SRES scenarios do not. (Data from CMIP3 and CMIP5).' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2013-08-16T14:30:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/emissions-concentrations-and-temperature-projections.yaml identifier: emissions-concentrations-and-temperature-projections lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 19 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: CMIP3 and CMIP5 submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: 'Emissions, Concentrations, and Temperature Projections' uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/emissions-concentrations-and-temperature-projections url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/emissions-concentrations-and-temperature usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Projected change in surface air temperature at the end of this century (2071-2099) relative to the end of the last century (1970-1999). The older generation of models (CMIP3) and SRES emissions scenarios are on the left side; the new models (CMIP5) and scenarios are on the right side. The scenarios are described under Supplemental Message 5 and in Figure 19. Differences between the old and new projections are mostly a result of the differences in the scenarios of the emission of heat-trapping gases rather than the increased complexity of the new models. None of the new scenarios are exactly the same as the old ones, although at the end of the century SRES B1 and RCP 4.5 are roughly comparable, as are SRES A1B and RCP 6.0. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2013-11-20T11:58:25 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/projected-annually-averaged-temperature-change.yaml identifier: projected-annually-averaged-temperature-change lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 20 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Projected Annually-Averaged Temperature C hange uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/projected-annually-averaged-temperature-change url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/projected-annually-averaged-temperature-change usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source.