--- - attributes: ~ caption: 'The correlation between rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (red) with rising carbon dioxide levels (blue) and falling pH in the ocean (green). As carbon dioxide accumulates in the ocean, the water becomes more acidic (the pH declines). (Figure source: modified from Feely et al. 20091ee9bb2b-9b22-48f0-b540-f942ccfd9c71).' chapter_identifier: executive-summary create_dt: ~ href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/executive-summary/figure/overview-as-oceans-absorb-co-they-become-more-acidic.yaml identifier: overview-as-oceans-absorb-co-they-become-more-acidic lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: ~ report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'modified from Feely et al. 20091ee9bb2b-9b22-48f0-b540-f942ccfd9c71' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: As Oceans Absorb CO2 They Become More Acidic uri: /report/nca3/chapter/executive-summary/figure/overview-as-oceans-absorb-co-they-become-more-acidic url: ~ usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Percent changes in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (the heaviest 1%) from 1958 to 2012 for each region. There is a clear national trend toward a greater amount of precipitation being concentrated in very heavy events, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. (Figure source: Figure source: updated from Karl et al. 2009e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a ).' chapter_identifier: executive-summary create_dt: ~ href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/executive-summary/figure/overview-observed-change-in-very-heavy-precipitation-2.yaml identifier: overview-observed-change-in-very-heavy-precipitation-2 lat_max: 71.441 lat_min: 18.912 lon_max: -73.125 lon_min: -179.151 ordinal: ~ report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'updated from Karl et al. 2009e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a' submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2012-12-31T23:59:00 time_start: 1958-01-01T00:00:00 title: Observed Change in Very Heavy Precipitation uri: /report/nca3/chapter/executive-summary/figure/overview-observed-change-in-very-heavy-precipitation-2 url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Different amounts of heat-trapping gases released into the atmosphere by human activities produce different projected increases in Earth’s temperature. The lines on the graph represent a central estimate of global average temperature rise (relative to the 1901- 1960 average) for the two main scenarios used in this report. A2 assumes continued increases in emissions throughout this century, and B1 assumes significant emissions reductions, though not due explicitly to climate change policies. Shading indicates the range (5th to 95th percentile) of results from a suite of climate models. In both cases, temperatures are expected to rise, although the difference between lower and higher emissions pathways is substantial. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).' chapter_identifier: executive-summary create_dt: ~ href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/executive-summary/figure/overview-projected-global-temperature-change.yaml identifier: overview-projected-global-temperature-change lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: ~ report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Projected Global Temperature Change uri: /report/nca3/chapter/executive-summary/figure/overview-projected-global-temperature-change url: ~ usage_limits: ~ - attributes: ~ caption: "The green band shows how global average temperature would have changed over the last century due to natural forces alone, as simulated by climate\r\nmodels. The blue band shows model simulations of the effects of human and natural forces (including solar and volcanic activity) combined. The black line\r\nshows the actual observed global average temperatures. Only with the inclusion of human influences can models reproduce the observed temperature changes. (Figure source: adapted from adapted from Huber and Knutti 201289032706-9386-44b8-94a9-60ec5ed95594)." chapter_identifier: executive-summary create_dt: ~ href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/executive-summary/figure/overview-separating-human-and-natural-influences-on-climate.yaml identifier: overview-separating-human-and-natural-influences-on-climate lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: ~ report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'adapted from Huber and Knutti 201289032706-9386-44b8-94a9-60ec5ed95594' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Separating Human and Natural Influences on Climate uri: /report/nca3/chapter/executive-summary/figure/overview-separating-human-and-natural-influences-on-climate url: ~ usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Pteropods, or “sea butterflies,” are eaten by a variety of marine species ranging from tiny krill to salmon to whales. The photos show what happens to a pteropod’s shell in seawater that is too acidic. On the left is a shell from a live pteropod from a region in the Southern Ocean where acidity is not too high. The shell on the right is from a pteropod in a region where the water is more acidic. (Figure source: (left) Bednaršek et al. 2012f5ea3c8e-a727-47a1-981c-4db49a0b6d33 (right) Nina Bednaršek).' chapter_identifier: executive-summary create_dt: ~ href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/executive-summary/figure/overview-shells-dissolve-in-acidified-ocean-water.yaml identifier: overview-shells-dissolve-in-acidified-ocean-water lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: ~ report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: (left) Bednaršek et al. 2012;f5ea3c8e-a727-47a1-981c-4db49a0b6d33 (right) Nina Bednaršek submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Shells Dissolve in Acidifed Ocean Water uri: /report/nca3/chapter/executive-summary/figure/overview-shells-dissolve-in-acidified-ocean-water url: ~ usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'These are just some of the indicators measured globally over many decades that show that the Earth’s climate is warming. White arrows indicate increasing trends, and black arrows indicate decreasing trends. All the indicators expected to increase in a warming world are, in fact, increasing, and all those expected to decrease in a warming world are decreasing. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC based on data updated from Kennedy et al. 201025578196-95d0-4ac7-b889-0e863985423d).' chapter_identifier: executive-summary create_dt: ~ href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/executive-summary/figure/overview-ten-indicators-of-a-warming-world.yaml identifier: overview-ten-indicators-of-a-warming-world lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: ~ report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'NOAA NCDC based on data updated from Kennedy et al. 201025578196-95d0-4ac7-b889-0e863985423d' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Ten Indicators of a Warming World uri: /report/nca3/chapter/executive-summary/figure/overview-ten-indicators-of-a-warming-world url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'These are just some of the indicators measured globally over many decades that show that the Earth’s climate is warming. White arrows indicate increasing trends, and black arrows indicate decreasing trends. All the indicators expected to increase in a warming world are, in fact, increasing, and all those expected to decrease in a warming world are decreasing. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC based on data updated from Kennedy et al. 201025578196-95d0-4ac7-b889-0e863985423d).' chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate create_dt: 2013-10-21T13:19:02 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/ten-indicators-of-a-warming-world.yaml identifier: ten-indicators-of-a-warming-world lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 1 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'NOAA NCDC based on data updated from Kennedy et al. 201025578196-95d0-4ac7-b889-0e863985423d' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Ten Indicators of a Warming World uri: /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/ten-indicators-of-a-warming-world url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/overview/overview/graphics/ten-indicators-warming-world usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Global annual average temperature (as measured over both land and oceans) has increased by more than 1.5°F (0.8°C) since 1880 (through 2012). Red bars show temperatures above the long-term average, and blue bars indicate temperatures below the long-term average. The black line shows atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in parts per million (ppm). While there is a clear long-term global warming trend, some years do not show a temperature increase relative to the previous year, and some years show greater changes than others. These year-to-year fluctuations in temperature are due to natural processes, such as the effects of El Niños, La Niñas, and volcanic eruptions. (Figure source: updated from Karl et al. 2009e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a).' chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate create_dt: 2013-11-06T09:53:23 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/global-temperature-and-carbon-dioxide.yaml identifier: global-temperature-and-carbon-dioxide lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 2 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'updated from Karl et al. 2009e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Global Temperature and Carbon Dioxide uri: /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/global-temperature-and-carbon-dioxide url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/our-changing-climate/graphics/global-temperature-and-carbon-dioxide usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Observed global average changes (black line), model simulations using only changes in natural factors (solar and volcanic) in green, and model simulations with the addition of human-induced emissions (blue). Climate changes since 1950 cannot be explained by natural factors or variability, and can only be explained by human factors. (Figure source: adapted from Huber and Knutti89032706-9386-44b8-94a9-60ec5ed95594).' chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate create_dt: 2014-02-21T16:00:49 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/separating-human-and-natural-influences-on-climate.yaml identifier: separating-human-and-natural-influences-on-climate lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 3 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'adapted from Huber and Knutti89032706-9386-44b8-94a9-60ec5ed95594' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Separating Human and Natural Influences on Climate uri: /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/separating-human-and-natural-influences-on-climate url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/overview/overview/graphics/separating-human-and-natural-influences-climate usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Different amounts of heat-trapping gases released into the atmosphere by human activities produce different projected increases in Earth’s temperature. In the figure, each line represents a central estimate of global average temperature rise (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for a specific emissions pathway. Shading indicates the range (5th to 95th percentile) of results from a suite of climate models. Projections in 2099 for additional emissions pathways are indicated by the bars to the right of each panel. In all cases, temperatures are expected to rise, although the difference between lower and higher emissions pathways is substantial. (Left) The panel shows the two main scenarios (SRES – Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) used in this report: A2 assumes continued increases in emissions throughout this century, and B1 assumes much slower increases in emissions beginning now and significant emissions reductions beginning around 2050, though not due explicitly to climate change policies. (Right) The panel shows newer analyses, which are results from the most recent generation of climate models (CMIP5) using the most recent emissions pathways (RCPs – Representative Concentration Pathways). Some of these new projections explicitly consider climate policies that would result in emissions reductions, which the SRES set did not.c54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682,da8af560-43fe-4825-8303-2bc772f26b88 The newest set includes both lower and higher pathways than did the previous set. The lowest emissions pathway shown here, RCP 2.6, assumes immediate and rapid reductions in emissions and would result in about 2.5°F of warming in this century. The highest pathway, RCP 8.5, roughly similar to a continuation of the current path of global emissions increases, is projected to lead to more than 8°F warming by 2100, with a high-end possibility of more than 11°F. (Data from CMIP3, CMIP5, and NOAA NCDC).' chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate create_dt: 2014-03-17T09:43:07 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/emissions-levels-determine-temperature-rises.yaml identifier: emissions-levels-determine-temperature-rises lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 4 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'CMIP3, CMIP5, and NOAA NCDC' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Emissions Levels Determine Temperature Rises uri: /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/emissions-levels-determine-temperature-rises url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/future-climate/graphics/emission-levels-determine-temperature-rises usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Projected change in average annual temperature over the period 2071-2099 (compared to the period 1970-1999) under a low scenario that assumes rapid reductions in emissions and concentrations of heat-trapping gases (RCP 2.6), and a higher scenario that assumes continued increases in emissions (RCP 8.5). (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).' chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate create_dt: 2013-12-05T10:16:05 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/projected-change-in-average-annual-temperature.yaml identifier: projected-change-in-average-annual-temperature lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 5 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Projected Change in Average Annual Temperature uri: /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/projected-change-in-average-annual-temperature url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/future-climate-change/graphics/projected-change-average-annual usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Projected change in average annual precipitation over the period 2071-2099 (compared to the period 1970-1999) under a low scenario that assumes rapid reductions in emissions and concentrations of heat-trapping gasses (RCP 2.6), and a higher scenario that assumes continued increases in emissions (RCP 8.5). Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are significant and consistent among models. White areas indicate that the changes are not projected to be larger than could be expected from natural variability. In general, northern parts of the U.S. (especially the Northeast and Alaska) are projected to receive more precipitation, while southern parts (especially the Southwest) are projected to receive less. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).' chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate create_dt: 2013-09-05T13:43:25 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/projected-change-in-average-annual-precipitation.yaml identifier: projected-change-in-average-annual-precipitation lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 6 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Projected Change in Average Annual Precipitation uri: /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/projected-change-in-average-annual-precipitation url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/future-climate-change/graphics/projected-change-average-annual-0 usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'The colors on the map show temperature changes over the past 22 years (1991-2012) compared to the 1901-1960 average, and compared to the 1951-1980 average for Alaska and Hawai‘i. The bars on the graphs show the average temperature changes by decade for 1901-2012 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar in each graph (2000s decade) includes 2011 and 2012. The period from 2001 to 2012 was warmer than any previous decade in every region. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).' chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate create_dt: 2013-08-03T10:04:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/observed-us-temperature-change.yaml identifier: observed-us-temperature-change lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 7 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Observed U.S. Temperature Change uri: /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/observed-us-temperature-change url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/our-changing-climate/graphics/observed-us-temperature-change usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Maps show projected change in average surface air temperature in the later part of this century (2071-2099) relative to the later part of the last century (1970-1999) under a scenario that assumes substantial reductions in heat trapping gases (B1) and a higher emissions scenario that assumes continued increases in global emissions (A2). (See Appendix 3: Climate Science, Supplemental Message 5 for a discussion of temperature changes under a wider range of future scenarios for various periods of this century). (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).' chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate create_dt: 2013-11-20T13:41:01 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/projected-temperature-change.yaml identifier: projected-temperature-change lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 8 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Projected Temperature Change uri: /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/projected-temperature-change url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/future-climate/graphics/projected-temperature-change usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'The largest uncertainty in projecting climate change beyond the next few decades is the level of heat-trapping gas emissions. The most recent model projections (CMIP5) take into account a wider range of options with regard to human behavior, including a lower scenario than has been considered before (RCP 2.6). This scenario assumes rapid reductions in emissions – more than 70% cuts from current levels by 2050 and further large decreases by 2100 – and the corresponding smaller amount of warming. On the higher end, the scenarios include one that assumes continued increases in emissions (RCP 8.5) and the corresponding greater amount of warming. Also shown are temperature changes for the intermediate scenarios RCP 4.5 (which is most similar to B1) and RCP 6.0 (which is most similar to A1B; see Appendix 3: Climate Science Supplement). Projections show change in average temperature in the later part of this century (2071-2099) relative to the late part of last century (1970-1999). (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).' chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate create_dt: 2014-04-09T15:24:54 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/projected-temperature-change-by-20712099-cmip5-models.yaml identifier: projected-temperature-change-by-20712099-cmip5-models lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 9 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Projected Temperature Change by 2071-2099 (CMIP5 models) uri: /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/projected-temperature-change-by-20712099-cmip5-models url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/recent-us-temperature-trends/graphics/newer-simulations-projected usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'The frost-free season length, defined as the period between the last occurrence of 32°F in the spring and the first occurrence of 32°F in the fall, has increased in each U.S. region during 1991-2012 relative to 1901-1960. Increases in frost-free season length correspond to similar increases in growing season length. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).' chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate create_dt: 2013-11-18T14:42:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/observed-increase-in-frostfree-season-length.yaml identifier: observed-increase-in-frostfree-season-length lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 10 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Observed Increase in Frost-Free Season Length uri: /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/observed-increase-in-frostfree-season-length url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/our-changing-climate/graphics/observed-increases-frost-free-season usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'The maps show projected increases in frost-free season length for the last three decades of this century (2070-2099 as compared to 1971-2000) under two emissions scenarios, one in which heat-trapping gas emissions continue to grow (A2) and one in which emissions peak in 2050 (B1). Increases in the frost-free season correspond to similar increases in the growing season. White areas are projected to experience no freezes for 2070-2099, and gray areas are projected to experience more than 10 frost-free years during the same period. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).' chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate create_dt: 2013-11-19T12:36:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/projected-changes-in-frostfree-season-length.yaml identifier: projected-changes-in-frostfree-season-length lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 11 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Projected Changes in Frost-Free Season Length uri: /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/projected-changes-in-frostfree-season-length url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/frost-free-season/graphics/projected-changes-frost-free-season-length usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes for 1991-2012 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas. The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2012 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar in each graph is for 2001-2012. (Figure source: adapted from Peterson et al. 2013e15600d0-290f-44e2-9b58-9ffd295ee6d2).' chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate create_dt: 2013-08-01T10:26:05 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/observed-us-precipitation-change.yaml identifier: observed-us-precipitation-change lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 12 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'adapted from Peterson et al. 2013e15600d0-290f-44e2-9b58-9ffd295ee6d2' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Observed U.S. Precipitation Change uri: /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/observed-us-precipitation-change url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/our-changing-climate/graphics/observed-us-precipitation-change usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Left panel shows simulated changes in the average amount of precipitation falling on the wettest day of the year for the period 2070-2099 as compared to 1971-2000 under a scenario that assumes rapid reductions in emissions (RCP 2.6) and one that assumes continued emissions increases (RCP 8.5). Right panel shows simulated changes in the annual maximum number of consecutive dry days (days receiving less than 0.04 inches (1 mm) of precipitation) under the same two scenarios. Simulations are from CMIP5 models. Stippling indicates areas where changes are consistent among at least 80% of the models used in this analysis. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).' chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate create_dt: 2014-02-06T14:19:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/ann-max-precip-cons-dry-day.yaml identifier: ann-max-precip-cons-dry-day lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 13 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Annual Maximum Precipitation and Changes in Consecutive Dry Days uri: /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/ann-max-precip-cons-dry-day url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/precipitation-change/graphics/annual-maximum-precipitation usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Projected change in seasonal precipitation for 2071-2099 (compared to 1970-1999) under an emissions scenario that assumes continued increases in emissions (A2).Hatched areas indicate that the projected changes are significant and consistent among models. White areas indicate that the changes are not projected to be larger than could be expected from natural variability. In general, the northern part of the U.S. is projected to see more winter and spring precipitation, while the southwestern U.S. is projected to experience less precipitation in the spring. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).' chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate create_dt: 2013-11-18T16:33:25 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/projected-precipitation-change-by-season.yaml identifier: projected-precipitation-change-by-season lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 14 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Projected Precipitation Change by Season uri: /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/projected-precipitation-change-by-season url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/future-climate/graphics/projected-precipitation-change-season usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Seasonal precipitation change for 2071-2099 (compared to 1970-1999) as projected by recent simulations that include a wider range of scenarios. The maps on the left (RCP 2.6) assume rapid reductions in emissions – more than 70% cuts from current levels by 2050 – and a corresponding much smaller amount of warming and far less precipitation change. On the right, RCP 8.5 assumes continued increases in emissions, with associated large increases in warming and major precipitation changes. These would include, for example, large reductions in spring precipitation in the Southwest and large increases in the Northeast and Midwest. Rapid emissions reductions would be required for the more modest changes in the maps on the left. Hatched areas indicate that the projected changes are significant and consistent among models. White areas indicate that the changes are not projected to be larger than could be expected from natural variability. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).' chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate create_dt: 2013-11-18T16:41:18 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/proj-precip-change.yaml identifier: proj-precip-change lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 15 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Newer Simulations for Projected Precipitation Change (CMIP5 models) uri: /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/proj-precip-change url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/precipitation-change/graphics/newer-simulations-projected-precipitation usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'One measure of a heavy precipitation event is a 2-day precipitation total that is exceeded on average only once in a five-year period, also known as a once-in-five-year event. As this extreme precipitation index for 1901-2012 shows, the occurrence of such events has become much more common in recent decades. Changes are compared to the period 1901-1960, and do not include Alaska or Hawai‘i. The 2000s decade (far right bar) includes 2001-2012. (Figure source: adapted from Kunkel et al. 2013b37557ac-ee97-4c28-98ca-4f1f1afe163b).' chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate create_dt: 2013-12-17T16:02:55 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/observed-us-trend-in-heavy-precipitation.yaml identifier: observed-us-trend-in-heavy-precipitation lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 16 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'adapted from Kunkel et al. 2013b37557ac-ee97-4c28-98ca-4f1f1afe163b' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Observed U.S. Trend in Heavy Precipitation uri: /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/observed-us-trend-in-heavy-precipitation url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/extreme-weather/graphics/observed-us-trends-heavy-precipitation usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Percent changes in the annual amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events, defined as the heaviest 1% of all daily events from 1901 to 2012 for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2012. In recent decades there have been increases nationally, with the largest increases in the Northeast, Great Plains, Midwest, and Southeast. Changes are compared to the 1901-1960 average for all regions except Alaska and Hawai‘i, which are relative to the 1951-1980 average. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).' chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate create_dt: 2013-07-02T13:07:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/observed-change-in-very-heavy-precipitation.yaml identifier: observed-change-in-very-heavy-precipitation lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 17 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2012-12-31T23:59:00 time_start: 1901-01-01T00:00:00 title: Observed Change in Very Heavy Precipitation uri: /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/observed-change-in-very-heavy-precipitation url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/heavy-downpours-increasing/graphics/observed-change-very-heavy usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'The map shows percent increases in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (defined as the heaviest 1% of all daily events) from 1958 to 2012 for each region of the continental United States. These trends are larger than natural variations for the Northeast, Midwest, Puerto Rico, Southeast, Great Plains, and Alaska. The trends are not larger than natural variations for the Southwest, Hawai‘i, and the Northwest. The changes shown in this figure are calculated from the beginning and end points of the trends for 1958 to 2012. (Figure source: updated from Karl et al. 2009e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a).' chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate create_dt: 2013-09-19T14:05:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/observed-change-in-very-heavy-precipitation-2.yaml identifier: observed-change-in-very-heavy-precipitation-2 lat_max: 71.441 lat_min: 18.912 lon_max: -73.125 lon_min: -179.151 ordinal: 18 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'updated from Karl et al. 2009e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a' submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2012-12-31T23:59:00 time_start: 1958-01-01T00:00:00 title: Observed Change in Very Heavy Precipitation uri: /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/observed-change-in-very-heavy-precipitation-2 url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/overview/overview/graphics/observed-change-very-heavy-precipitation usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source.