--- - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: "Data from the satellite-based Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) show that the total atmospheric moisture content over oceans has increased by 0.41 kg/m2 per decade since 1988. Results from current climate models indicate that water vapor increases of this magnitude cannot be explained by climate noise alone. In a formal detection and attribution analysis using the pooled results from 22 different climate models, the simulated “fingerprint” pattern of anthropogenically caused changes in water vapor is identifiable with high statistical confidence in the SSM/I data. Experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually suggest that this fingerprint “match” is primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases and not to solar forcing or recovery from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Our findings provide preliminary evidence of an emerging anthropogenic signal in the moisture content of earth's atmosphere. " Author: "Santer, B.D.\rMears, C.\rWentz, F.J.\rTaylor, K.E.\rGleckler, P.J.\rWigley, T.M.L\rBarnett, T.P.\rBoyle, J.S.\rBrüggemann, W.\rGillett, N.P.\rS. A. Klein\rG. A. Meehl\rT. Nozawa\rD. W. Pierce\rP. A. Stott\rW. M. Washington\rM. F. Wehner" DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0702872104 ISSN: 0027-8424 Issue: 39 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Keywords: climate change; climate modeling; detection and attribution; water vapor Pages: 15248-15253 Title: Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content URL: http://sa.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/PNAS-2007-Santer-15248-53.pdf Volume: 104 Year: 2007 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","RF 2","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL"]' _record_number: 2743 _uuid: bee16192-914f-4561-98e6-6cc3e33e2e41 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.0702872104 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/bee16192-914f-4561-98e6-6cc3e33e2e41.yaml identifier: bee16192-914f-4561-98e6-6cc3e33e2e41 uri: /reference/bee16192-914f-4561-98e6-6cc3e33e2e41 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'EPA,' Institution: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Pages: 84 Place Published: 'Washington, D.C.' Title: 'Climate Change Indicators in the United States, 2nd Edition' URL: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/pdfs/climateindicators-full-2012.pdf Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 26: Decision Support FINAL","Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 3235 _uuid: bfc00315-ccea-4e7c-8a05-2650a07e4252 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/epa-430-r-12-004 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/bfc00315-ccea-4e7c-8a05-2650a07e4252.yaml identifier: bfc00315-ccea-4e7c-8a05-2650a07e4252 uri: /reference/bfc00315-ccea-4e7c-8a05-2650a07e4252 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Fall, S.\rWatts, A.\rNielsen-Gammon, J.\rJones, E.\rNiyogi, D.\rChristy, J.R.\rPielke, R.A., Sr." DOI: 10.1029/2010JD015146 Issue: D14 Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Pages: D14120 Title: Analysis of the impacts of station exposure on the US Historical Climatology Network temperatures and temperature trends Volume: 116 Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL"]' _record_number: 82 _uuid: c0160553-45a8-4e6f-be7f-711a32c8d0f8 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1029/2010JD015146 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/c0160553-45a8-4e6f-be7f-711a32c8d0f8.yaml identifier: c0160553-45a8-4e6f-be7f-711a32c8d0f8 uri: /reference/c0160553-45a8-4e6f-be7f-711a32c8d0f8 - attrs: .publisher: Blackwell Publishing Ltd .reference_type: 0 Author: "Villarini, Gabriele\rSmith, James A.\rBaeck, Mary Lynn\rKrajewski, Witold F." DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00540.x ISSN: 1752-1688 Issue: 3 Journal: JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association Keywords: "stationarity\rflooding\rmixture distribution\rstreamflow\rland-use/land-cover change\rextreme value statistics" Pages: 447-463 Title: Examining flood frequency distributions in the Midwest U.S. URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00540.x/pdf Volume: 47 Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","RF 2","Ch. 3: Water Resources FINAL"]' _record_number: 3705 _uuid: c25726e8-4e99-42fc-b35c-4d3164ff1aba reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00540.x href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/c25726e8-4e99-42fc-b35c-4d3164ff1aba.yaml identifier: c25726e8-4e99-42fc-b35c-4d3164ff1aba uri: /reference/c25726e8-4e99-42fc-b35c-4d3164ff1aba - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'The absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) into the ocean lowers the pH of the waters. This so-called ocean acidification could have important consequences for marine ecosystems. To better understand the extent of this ocean acidification in coastal waters, we conducted hydrographic surveys along the continental shelf of western North America from central Canada to northern Mexico. We observed seawater that is undersaturated with respect to aragonite upwelling onto large portions of the continental shelf, reaching depths of similar to 40 to 120 meters along most transect lines and all the way to the surface on one transect off northern California. Although seasonal upwelling of the undersaturated waters onto the shelf is a natural phenomenon in this region, the ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2 has increased the areal extent of the affected area.' Accession Number: 259 Author: "Feely, R.A.\rC.L. Sabine\rJ.M. Hernandez-Ayon\rD. Ianson\rB. Hales" Author Address: 'Feely, RA (reprint author), NOAA, Pacific Marine Environm Lab, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115 USA NOAA, Pacific Marine Environm Lab, Seattle, WA 98115 USA Univ Autonoma Baja California, Inst Invest Oceanol, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico Inst Ocean Sci, Fisheries & Oceans Canada, Sidney, BC V8L 4B2, Canada Oregon State Univ, Coll Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA' DOI: 10.1126/science.1155676 Date: JUN 13 2008 ISSN: 0036-8075 Issue: 5882 Journal: Science Keywords: ANTHROPOGENIC CO2; INORGANIC CARBON; PACIFIC-OCEAN; SYSTEM; CALCIFICATION; DISSOLUTION; CALIFORNIA; IMPACT Language: English Pages: 1490-1492 Title: Evidence for upwelling of corrosive “acidified” water onto the continental shelf URL: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/320/5882/1490.short Volume: 320 Year: 2008 _chapter: '["Ch. 24: Oceans FINAL","Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","RF 11","Ch. 21: Northwest FINAL"]' _record_number: 664 _uuid: c299055a-259d-4bd5-be87-1dbbba4174d4 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1126/science.1155676 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/c299055a-259d-4bd5-be87-1dbbba4174d4.yaml identifier: c299055a-259d-4bd5-be87-1dbbba4174d4 uri: /reference/c299055a-259d-4bd5-be87-1dbbba4174d4 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: "Evidence is presented of a reduction in relative humidity over low-latitude and midlatitude land areas over a period of about 10 years leading up to 2008, based on monthly anomalies in surface air temperature and humidity from comprehensive European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim) and from Climatic Research Unit and Hadley Centre analyses of monthly station temperature data (CRUTEM3) and synoptic humidity observations (HadCRUH). The data sets agree well for both temperature and humidity variations for periods and places of overlap, although the average warming over land is larger for the fully sampled ERA data than for the spatially and temporally incomplete CRUTEM3 data. Near-surface specific humidity varies similarly over land and sea, suggesting that the recent reduction in relative humidity over land may be due to limited moisture supply from the oceans, where evaporation has been limited by sea surface temperatures that have not risen in concert with temperatures over land. Continental precipitation from the reanalyses is compared with a new gauge-based Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) data set, with the combined gauge and satellite products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), and with CPC's independent gauge analysis of precipitation over land (PREC/L). The reanalyses agree best with the new GPCC and latest GPCP data sets, with ERA-Interim significantly better than ERA-40 at capturing monthly variability. Shifts over time in the differences among the precipitation data sets make it difficult to assess their longer-term variations and any link with longer-term variations in humidity. " Author: "Simmons, A.J.\rWillett, K.M.\rJones, P.D.\rThorne, P.W.\rDee, D.P." DOI: 10.1029/2009JD012442 ISSN: 0148-0227 Issue: D01110 Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Pages: 1-21 Title: 'Low-frequency variations in surface atmospheric humidity, temperature, and precipitation: Inferences from reanalyses and monthly gridded observational data sets' Volume: 115 Year: 2010 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","RF 2"]' _record_number: 2857 _uuid: c4467c67-2f80-4897-85ec-286f942c2558 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1029/2009JD012442 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/c4467c67-2f80-4897-85ec-286f942c2558.yaml identifier: c4467c67-2f80-4897-85ec-286f942c2558 uri: /reference/c4467c67-2f80-4897-85ec-286f942c2558 - attrs: .reference_type: 1 Author: 'IPCC,' Editor: "Solomon, S.\rD. Qin\rM. Manning\r Z. Chen\rM. Marquis\rK.B. Averyt\rM. Tignor\rH.L. Miller" ISBN: 978 0521 88009-1 Number of Pages: 996 Place Published: 'Cambridge. U.K, New York, NY, USA' Publisher: Cambridge University Press Reviewer: c54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682 Title: 'Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change' URL: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm Year: 2007 _chapter: '["Ch. 25: Coastal Zone FINAL","Ch. 15: Biogeochemical FINAL","Ch. 12: Indigenous FINAL","RF 3","Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","Ch. 6: Agriculture FINAL","Ch. 4: Energy Supply and Use FINAL","Ch. 17: Southeast and Caribbean FINAL","Ch. 27: Mitigation FINAL","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL"]' _record_number: 263 _uuid: c54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682 reftype: Book child_publication: /report/ipcc-ar4-wg1 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/c54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682.yaml identifier: c54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682 uri: /reference/c54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Bai, Xuezhi\rWang, Jia\rSellinger, Cynthia\rClites, Anne\rAssel, Raymond" DOI: 10.1029/2010jc006932 ISSN: 2156-2202 Issue: C3 Journal: 'Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans' Keywords: "ENSO\rGreat Lakes\rNAO\rice cover\r0746 Lakes\r1616 Climate variability\r1621 Cryospheric change\r4524 Fine structure and microstructure" Pages: C03002 Title: Interannual variability of Great Lakes ice cover and its relationship to NAO and ENSO Volume: 117 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 3709 _uuid: c6888889-0977-439d-a984-10dd9ce28777 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1029/2010jc006932 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/c6888889-0977-439d-a984-10dd9ce28777.yaml identifier: c6888889-0977-439d-a984-10dd9ce28777 uri: /reference/c6888889-0977-439d-a984-10dd9ce28777 - attrs: .publisher: Copernicus Publications .reference_type: 0 Author: "Cavalieri, D. J.\rParkinson, C. L." DOI: 10.5194/tc-6-881-2012 ISSN: 1994-0424 Issue: 4 Journal: The Cryosphere Notes: TC Pages: 881-889 Title: 'Arctic sea ice variability and trends, 1979-2010' URL: http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/881/2012/tc-6-881-2012.pdf Volume: 6 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 3713 _uuid: c7f4468c-6579-42ce-9726-5ec57274137b reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.5194/tc-6-881-2012 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/c7f4468c-6579-42ce-9726-5ec57274137b.yaml identifier: c7f4468c-6579-42ce-9726-5ec57274137b uri: /reference/c7f4468c-6579-42ce-9726-5ec57274137b - attrs: .reference_type: 1 Author: "Burkett, V.\rDavidson, M." ISBN: 9781610914338 Number of Pages: 216 Place Published: 'Washington, D.C.' Publisher: Island Press Reviewer: c9647af9-db7f-4f6a-89bd-2f2293ad26e5 Title: 'Coastal Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities: A Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment' Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 25: Coastal Zone FINAL","RG 9 Rural","Ch. 14: Rural Communities FINAL","RG 10 Coasts","Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","Ch. 28: Adaptation FINAL"]' _record_number: 414 _uuid: c9647af9-db7f-4f6a-89bd-2f2293ad26e5 reftype: Book child_publication: /report/usgcrp-ti-coastal-impacts-2012 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/c9647af9-db7f-4f6a-89bd-2f2293ad26e5.yaml identifier: c9647af9-db7f-4f6a-89bd-2f2293ad26e5 uri: /reference/c9647af9-db7f-4f6a-89bd-2f2293ad26e5 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Hawkins, E.\rSutton, R." DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6 ISSN: 0930-7575 Issue: 1 Journal: Climate Dynamics Pages: 407-418 Title: The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change Volume: 37 Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL"]' _record_number: 1300 _uuid: cbb67d95-422d-4ffc-9fbd-dec79795f437 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/cbb67d95-422d-4ffc-9fbd-dec79795f437.yaml identifier: cbb67d95-422d-4ffc-9fbd-dec79795f437 uri: /reference/cbb67d95-422d-4ffc-9fbd-dec79795f437 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: "Today's surface ocean is saturated with respect to calcium carbonate, but increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are reducing ocean pH and carbonate ion concentrations, and thus the level of calcium carbonate saturation. Experimental evidence suggests that if these trends continue, key marine organisms—such as corals and some plankton—will have difficulty maintaining their external calcium carbonate skeletons. Here we use 13 models of the ocean–carbon cycle to assess calcium carbonate saturation under the IS92a 'business-as-usual' scenario for future emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. In our projections, Southern Ocean surface waters will begin to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a metastable form of calcium carbonate, by the year 2050. By 2100, this undersaturation could extend throughout the entire Southern Ocean and into the subarctic Pacific Ocean. When live pteropods were exposed to our predicted level of undersaturation during a two-day shipboard experiment, their aragonite shells showed notable dissolution. Our findings indicate that conditions detrimental to high-latitude ecosystems could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously." Author: "Orr, J.C.\rV.J. Fabry\rO. Aumont\rL. Bopp\rS.C. Doney\rR.A. Feely\rA. Gnanadesikan\rN. Gruber\rA. Ishida\rF. Joos\rR.M. Key\rK. Lindsay\rE. Maier-Reimer\rR. Matear\rP. Monfray\rA. Mouchet\rR.G. Najjar\rG-K Plattner\rK.B. Rodgers\rC.L. Sabine\rJ.L. Sarmiento\rR. Schlitzer\rR.D. Slater\rI.J. Totterdell\rM-F Weirig\rY. Yamanaka\rA. Yool" DOI: 10.1038/nature04095 ISSN: '0028-0836, 1476-4679' Issue: 7059 Journal: Nature Pages: 681-686 Title: Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms Volume: 437 Year: 2005 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","Ch. 22: Alaska FINAL"]' _record_number: 2369 _uuid: cbf2ddc8-6bd3-4a84-9697-4e9026c2b180 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nature04095 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/cbf2ddc8-6bd3-4a84-9697-4e9026c2b180.yaml identifier: cbf2ddc8-6bd3-4a84-9697-4e9026c2b180 uri: /reference/cbf2ddc8-6bd3-4a84-9697-4e9026c2b180 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'The Nabro stratovolcano in Eritrea, northeastern Africa, erupted on 13 June 2011, injecting approximately 1.3 teragrams of sulfur dioxide (SO2) to altitudes of 9 to 14 kilometers in the upper troposphere, which resulted in a large aerosol enhancement in the stratosphere. The SO2 was lofted into the lower stratosphere by deep convection and the circulation associated with the Asian summer monsoon while gradually converting to sulfate aerosol. This demonstrates that to affect climate, volcanic eruptions need not be strong enough to inject sulfur directly to the stratosphere.' Author: "Bourassa, Adam E.\rRobock, Alan\rRandel, William J.\rDeshler, Terry\rRieger, Landon A.\rLloyd, Nicholas D.\rLlewellyn, E. J.\rDegenstein, Douglas A." DOI: 10.1126/science.1219371 Date: 'July 6, 2012' Issue: 6090 Journal: Science Notes: (Ted) Pages: 78-81 Title: Large volcanic aerosol load in the stratosphere linked to Asian monsoon transport URL: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/337/6090/78.abstract Volume: 337 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 3711 _uuid: cbf5be19-09b7-42ab-95da-9062643b0d17 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1126/science.1219371 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/cbf5be19-09b7-42ab-95da-9062643b0d17.yaml identifier: cbf5be19-09b7-42ab-95da-9062643b0d17 uri: /reference/cbf5be19-09b7-42ab-95da-9062643b0d17 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Changes in vegetative growing seasons are dominant indicators of the dynamic response of ecosystems to climate change. Therefore, knowledge of growing seasons over the past decades is essential to predict ecosystem changes. In this study, the long-term changes in the growing seasons of temperate vegetation over the Northern Hemisphere were examined by analyzing satellite-measured normalized difference vegetation index and reanalysis temperature during 1982–2008. Results showed that the length of the growing season (LOS) increased over the analysis period; however, the role of changes at the start of the growing season (SOS) and at the end of the growing season (EOS) differed depending on the time period. On a hemispheric scale, SOS advanced by 5.2 days in the early period (1982–1999) but advanced by only 0.2 days in the later period (2000–2008). EOS was delayed by 4.3 days in the early period, and it was further delayed by another 2.3 days in the later period. The difference between SOS and EOS in the later period was due to less warming during the preseason (January–April) before SOS compared with the magnitude of warming in the preseason (June–September) before EOS. At a regional scale, delayed EOS in later periods was shown. In North America, EOS was delayed by 8.1 days in the early period and delayed by another 1.3 days in the later period. In Europe, the delayed EOS by 8.2 days was more significant than the advanced SOS by 3.2 days in the later period. However, in East Asia, the overall increase in LOS during the early period was weakened in the later period. Admitting regional heterogeneity, changes in hemispheric features suggest that the longer-lasting vegetation growth in recent decades can be attributed to extended leaf senescence in autumn rather than earlier spring leaf-out.' Author: "Jeong, S. J.\rC.H. Ho\rH.J. Gim\rM.E. Brown" DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02397.x Date: Jul ISSN: 1365-2486 Issue: 7 Journal: Global Change Biology Keywords: climate change;; growing season;; NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index);; Northern Hemisphere;; phenology;; temperate vegetation Pages: 2385-2399 Title: Phenology shifts at start vs. end of growing season in temperate vegetation over the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1982-2008 URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02397.x/pdf Volume: 17 Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","Ch. 8: Ecosystems FINAL"]' _record_number: 1261 _uuid: cd205ef2-b503-4a5c-b0fc-c4a5b94efc08 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02397.x href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/cd205ef2-b503-4a5c-b0fc-c4a5b94efc08.yaml identifier: cd205ef2-b503-4a5c-b0fc-c4a5b94efc08 uri: /reference/cd205ef2-b503-4a5c-b0fc-c4a5b94efc08 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Doney, S.C.\rM. Ruckelshaus\rJ.E. Duffy\rJ.P. Barry\rF. Chan\rC.A. English\rH.M. Galindo\rJ.M. Grebmeier\rA.B. Hollowed\rN. Knowlton\rPolovina, J. \rRabalais, N.N.\rSydeman, W.J.\rTalley, L.D." DOI: 10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611 Journal: Annual Review of Marine Science Pages: 11-37 Title: Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems URL: http://www.annualreviews.org/eprint/fzUZd7Z748TeHmB7p8cn/full/10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611 Volume: 4 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 25: Coastal Zone FINAL","Ch. 24: Oceans FINAL","Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","RF 11"]' _record_number: 309 _uuid: cfdaea11-95e2-4789-914b-74901b2f26b0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/cfdaea11-95e2-4789-914b-74901b2f26b0.yaml identifier: cfdaea11-95e2-4789-914b-74901b2f26b0 uri: /reference/cfdaea11-95e2-4789-914b-74901b2f26b0 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Large uncertainties in the budget of atmospheric methane (CH4) limit the accuracy of climate change projections. Here we describe and quantify an important source of CH4—point-source ebullition (bubbling) from northern lakes—that has not been incorporated in previous regional or global methane budgets. Employing a method recently introduced to measure ebullition more accurately by taking into account its spatial patchiness in lakes, we estimate point-source ebullition for 16 lakes in Alaska and Siberia that represent several common northern lake types: glacial, alluvial floodplain, peatland and thermokarst (thaw) lakes. Extrapolation of measured fluxes from these 16 sites to all lakes north of 45° N using circumpolar databases of lake and permafrost distributions suggests that northern lakes are a globally significant source of atmospheric CH4, emitting approximately 24.2±10.5 Tg CH4 yr−1. Thermokarst lakes have particularly high emissions because they release CH4 produced from organic matter previously sequestered in permafrost. A carbon mass balance calculation of CH4 release from thermokarst lakes on the Siberian yedoma ice complex suggests that these lakes alone would emit as much as approximately 49 000 Tg CH4 if this ice complex was to thaw completely. Using a space-for-time substitution based on the current lake distributions in permafrost-dominated and permafrost-free terrains, we estimate that lake emissions would be reduced by approximately 12% in a more probable transitional permafrost scenario and by approximately 53% in a ‘permafrost-free’ Northern Hemisphere. Long-term decline in CH4 ebullition from lakes due to lake area loss and permafrost thaw would occur only after the large release of CH4 associated thermokarst lake development in the zone of continuous permafrost. ' Author: "Walter, K.M.\rSmith, L.C.\rChapin, F.S., III" DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2036 ISSN: 1364-503X Issue: 1856 Journal: 'Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences' Keywords: northern lakes; methane emissions; permafrost; thermokarst; Geographical Information System; climate change Pages: 1657-1676 Title: 'Methane bubbling from northern lakes: Present and future contributions to the global methane budget' Volume: 365 Year: 2007 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 3328 _uuid: d0df085c-960d-4644-abef-3f2a67a6ab05 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1098/rsta.2007.2036 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/d0df085c-960d-4644-abef-3f2a67a6ab05.yaml identifier: d0df085c-960d-4644-abef-3f2a67a6ab05 uri: /reference/d0df085c-960d-4644-abef-3f2a67a6ab05 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Screen, James A.\rSimmonds, Ian" DOI: 10.1002/grl.50174 ISSN: 1944-8007 Issue: 5 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Keywords: "Arctic amplification\rcirculation\rRossby wave\rmid-latitude weather\r1610 Atmosphere\r1616 Climate variability\r3305 Climate change and variability\r3319 General circulation\r3389 Tides and planetary waves" Pages: 959-964 Title: Exploring links between Arctic amplification and mid-latitude weather URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50174/pdf Volume: 40 Year: 2013 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","RF 1"]' _record_number: 3745 _uuid: d23c69fd-1a50-44fd-8ade-c636ad308b8d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/grl.50174 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/d23c69fd-1a50-44fd-8ade-c636ad308b8d.yaml identifier: d23c69fd-1a50-44fd-8ade-c636ad308b8d uri: /reference/d23c69fd-1a50-44fd-8ade-c636ad308b8d - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Orr, J. C.' Book Title: Ocean Acidification Editor: 'Gattuso J.-P. & Hansson L. ' ISBN: 978-0-19-959109-1 Pages: 41-66 Place Published: Oxford Publisher: Oxford University Press Reviewer: d425876e-396f-401e-84b4-9641fa9ce7d8 Title: Recent and future changes in ocean carbonate chemistry Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 3737 _uuid: d425876e-396f-401e-84b4-9641fa9ce7d8 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /book/6bcd02ff-9171-4ae7-ae11-7689f07d761a href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/d425876e-396f-401e-84b4-9641fa9ce7d8.yaml identifier: d425876e-396f-401e-84b4-9641fa9ce7d8 uri: /reference/d425876e-396f-401e-84b4-9641fa9ce7d8 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'In this study, a cyclone detection/tracking algorithm was used to identify cyclones from two gridded 6-hourly mean sea level pressure datasets: the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis (NNR) for 1958–2001. The cyclone activity climatology and changes inferred from the two reanalyses are intercompared. The cyclone climatologies and trends are found to be in reasonably good agreement with each other over northern Europe and eastern North America, while ERA-40 shows systematically stronger cyclone activity over the boreal extratropical oceans than does NNR. However, significant differences between ERA-40 and NNR are seen over the austral extratropics. In particular, ERA-40 shows significantly greater strong-cyclone activity and less weak-cyclone activity over all oceanic areas south of 40°S in all seasons, while it shows significantly stronger cyclone activity over most areas of the austral subtropics in the warm seasons.; ; The most notable historical trends in cyclone activity are found to be associated with strong-cyclone activity. Over the boreal extratropics, both ERA-40 and NNR show a significant increasing trend in January–March (JFM) strong-cyclone activity over the high-latitude North Atlantic and over the midlatitude North Pacific, with a significant decreasing trend over the midlatitude North Atlantic and a small increasing trend over northern Europe. The JFM changes over the North Atlantic are associated with the mean position of the storm track shifting about 181 km northward. Importantly, there is no evidence of abrupt changes identified for the boreal extratropics, although previous studies have suggested that the upward trend found in the NNR data could be biased high. However, there exist a few abrupt changes over the austral extratropics, which appear to be attributable to the increasing availability of observations assimilated in the reanalyses. After diminishing the effects of these abrupt changes, strong-cyclone activity over the austral circumpolar oceanic region is identified to have an increasing trend in October–December (OND) and July–September (JAS), with a decreasing trend over the 40°–60°S zone in JAS.' Author: "Wang, Xiaolan L.\rSwail, Val R.\rZwiers, Francis W." DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3781.1 ISSN: 0894-8755 Issue: 13 Journal: Journal of Climate Pages: 3145-3166 Title: 'Climatology and changes of extratropical cyclone activity: Comparison of ERA-40 with NCEP-NCAR reanalysis for 1958-2001' URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI3781.1 Volume: 19 Year: 2006 _chapter: '["Ch. 25: Coastal Zone FINAL","Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","RF 2"]' _record_number: 3342 _uuid: d4efd07e-2886-41f4-bc6d-14cbbe00c382 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/JCLI3781.1 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/d4efd07e-2886-41f4-bc6d-14cbbe00c382.yaml identifier: d4efd07e-2886-41f4-bc6d-14cbbe00c382 uri: /reference/d4efd07e-2886-41f4-bc6d-14cbbe00c382 - attrs: .publisher: American Meteorological Society .reference_type: 0 Access Date: 2013/06/07 Author: "Knutson, Thomas R.\rSirutis, Joseph J.\rVecchi, Gabriel A.\rGarner, Steven\rZhao, Ming\rKim, Hyeong-Seog\rBender, Morris\rTuleya, Robert E.\rHeld, Isaac M.\rVillarini, Gabriele" DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00539.1 Date: September 2013 ISSN: 0894-8755 Issue: 17 Journal: Journal of Climate Pages: 6591-6617 Title: 'Dynamical downscaling projections of twenty-first-century Atlantic hurricane activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-based scenarios' URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00539.1 Volume: 27 Year: 2013 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 3722 _uuid: d6bd92ad-67ef-4df7-aca9-68944523e863 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00539.1 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/d6bd92ad-67ef-4df7-aca9-68944523e863.yaml identifier: d6bd92ad-67ef-4df7-aca9-68944523e863 uri: /reference/d6bd92ad-67ef-4df7-aca9-68944523e863