--- - attrs: .publisher: Nature Publishing Group .reference_type: 0 Author: "Sheffield, Justin\rWood, Eric F.\rRoderick, Michael L." DOI: 10.1038/nature11575 ISSN: 0028-0836 Issue: 7424 Journal: Nature Notes: 10.1038/nature11575 Pages: 435-438 Title: Little change in global drought over the past 60 years URL: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v491/n7424/pdf/nature11575.pdf Volume: 491 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","RF 2","Ch. 3: Water Resources FINAL"]' _record_number: 3747 _uuid: 98f72b22-92f4-47ca-b1f4-c48ea1b90edb reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nature11575 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/98f72b22-92f4-47ca-b1f4-c48ea1b90edb.yaml identifier: 98f72b22-92f4-47ca-b1f4-c48ea1b90edb uri: /reference/98f72b22-92f4-47ca-b1f4-c48ea1b90edb - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Menne, M.J.\rWilliams, C.N., Jr.\rR.S. Vose" DOI: 10.1175/2008BAMS2613.1 Issue: 7 Journal: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Pages: 993-1007 Title: 'The US Historical Climatology Network monthly temperature data, version 2' URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008BAMS2613.1 Volume: 90 Year: 2009 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL"]' _record_number: 1999 _uuid: 9a18ff0d-ad2f-4176-856c-d54aea0a92e1 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/2008BAMS2613.1 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/9a18ff0d-ad2f-4176-856c-d54aea0a92e1.yaml identifier: 9a18ff0d-ad2f-4176-856c-d54aea0a92e1 uri: /reference/9a18ff0d-ad2f-4176-856c-d54aea0a92e1 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Peñuelas, Josep\rRutishauser, This\rFilella, Iolanda" DOI: 10.1126/science.1173004 Date: 'May 15, 2009' ISSN: 0036-8075 Issue: 5929 Journal: Science Pages: 887-888 Title: Phenology feedbacks on climate change URL: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/324/5929/887.short Volume: 324 Year: 2009 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","RF 1"]' _record_number: 3696 _uuid: 9b9c3936-a3d9-4943-9c98-78e22359a492 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1126/science.1173004 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/9b9c3936-a3d9-4943-9c98-78e22359a492.yaml identifier: 9b9c3936-a3d9-4943-9c98-78e22359a492 uri: /reference/9b9c3936-a3d9-4943-9c98-78e22359a492 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Wood, A.W.\rLettenmaier, D.P." DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-87-12-1699 ISSN: 0003-0007 Issue: 12 Journal: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Pages: 1699-1712 Title: A test bed for new seasonal hydrologic forecasting approaches in the western United States Volume: 87 Year: 2006 _chapter: '["RF 3","Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 3469 _uuid: 9c0b6ae6-4bb4-4a27-b6ec-1b0c2dc1cc93 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/BAMS-87-12-1699 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/9c0b6ae6-4bb4-4a27-b6ec-1b0c2dc1cc93.yaml identifier: 9c0b6ae6-4bb4-4a27-b6ec-1b0c2dc1cc93 uri: /reference/9c0b6ae6-4bb4-4a27-b6ec-1b0c2dc1cc93 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Karl, T.R.\rB.E. Gleason\rM.J. Menne\rJ.R. McMahon\rHeim, R.R., Jr.\rM.J. Brewer\rK.E. Kunkel\rD.S. Arndt\rJ.L. Privette\rJ.J. Bates\rP.Y. Groisman\rD.R. Easterling" DOI: 10.1029/2012EO470001 ISSN: 2324-9250 Issue: 47 Journal: 'Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union' Pages: 473-474 Title: 'U.S. temperature and drought: Recent anomalies and trends' URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012EO470001/pdf Volume: 93 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 13: Land Use and Land Cover Change FINAL","Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","Ch. 6: Agriculture FINAL","RF 8","Ch. 18: Midwest FINAL"]' _record_number: 1722 _uuid: 9f976ed6-c1dd-437d-aaf9-062bca25bbc9 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1029/2012EO470001 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/9f976ed6-c1dd-437d-aaf9-062bca25bbc9.yaml identifier: 9f976ed6-c1dd-437d-aaf9-062bca25bbc9 uri: /reference/9f976ed6-c1dd-437d-aaf9-062bca25bbc9 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Wang, Chunzai\rLiu, Hailong\rLee, Sang-Ki\rAtlas, Robert" DOI: 10.1029/2011gl049265 ISSN: 1944-8007 Issue: 19 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Keywords: "climate variability\rtropical meteorology\r1616 Climate variability\r1620 Climate dynamics\r3374 Tropical meteorology\r4215 Climate and interannual variability" Pages: L19702 Title: Impact of the Atlantic warm pool on United States landfalling hurricanes URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL049265/pdf Volume: 38 Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 3754 _uuid: a12be596-4206-4a86-9440-da557bee8414 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1029/2011gl049265 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/a12be596-4206-4a86-9440-da557bee8414.yaml identifier: a12be596-4206-4a86-9440-da557bee8414 uri: /reference/a12be596-4206-4a86-9440-da557bee8414 - attrs: .publisher: Nature Publishing Group .reference_type: 0 Author: "Gillett, Nathan P.\rArora, Vivek K.\rZickfeld, Kirsten\rMarshall, Shawn J.\rMerryfield, William J." DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1047 Date: 02//print ISSN: 1752-0894 Issue: 2 Journal: Nature Geoscience Notes: 10.1038/ngeo1047 Pages: 83-87 Title: Ongoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions URL: http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n2/pdf/ngeo1047.pdf Volume: 4 Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 4361 _uuid: a1703528-4dfb-4a59-9799-e0192914d341 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/ngeo1047 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/a1703528-4dfb-4a59-9799-e0192914d341.yaml identifier: a1703528-4dfb-4a59-9799-e0192914d341 uri: /reference/a1703528-4dfb-4a59-9799-e0192914d341 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'The increase in anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and attendant increase in ocean acidification and sea ice melt act together to decrease the saturation state of calcium carbonate in the Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean. In 2008, surface waters were undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a relatively soluble form of calcium carbonate found in plankton and invertebrates. Undersaturation was found to be a direct consequence of the recent extensive melting of sea ice in the Canada Basin. In addition, the retreat of the ice edge well past the shelf-break has produced conditions favorable to enhanced upwelling of subsurface, aragonite-undersaturated water onto the Arctic continental shelf. Undersaturation will affect both planktonic and benthic calcifying biota and therefore the composition of the Arctic ecosystem.' Author: "Yamamoto-Kawai, M.\rMcLaughlin, F.A.\rCarmack, E.C.\rNishino, S.\rShimada, K." DOI: 10.1126/science.1174190 Issue: 5956 Journal: Science Keywords: Arctic Ocean; carbon dioxide; Marine; ocean acidification; sea ice Pages: 1098-1100 Title: 'Aragonite undersaturation in the Arctic ocean: Effects of ocean acidification and sea ice melt' Volume: 326 Year: 2009 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","Ch. 22: Alaska FINAL"]' _record_number: 3502 _uuid: a1e455ee-be7a-46dc-986a-955dc2f1f3fb reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1126/science.1174190 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/a1e455ee-be7a-46dc-986a-955dc2f1f3fb.yaml identifier: a1e455ee-be7a-46dc-986a-955dc2f1f3fb uri: /reference/a1e455ee-be7a-46dc-986a-955dc2f1f3fb - attrs: .publisher: Blackwell Publishing Ltd .reference_type: 0 Author: "Hu, J. I. A.\rMoore, David J. P.\rBurns, Sean P.\rMonson, Russell K." DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01967.x ISSN: 1365-2486 Issue: 2 Journal: Global Change Biology Keywords: "growing season length\risotope\rnet ecosystem productivity\rSIPNET\rsubalpine forest" Pages: 771-783 Title: Longer growing seasons lead to less carbon sequestration by a subalpine forest URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01967.x/pdf Volume: 16 Year: 2010 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","RF 1"]' _record_number: 3698 _uuid: a2503492-7b41-4368-96f8-3797708a4c48 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01967.x href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/a2503492-7b41-4368-96f8-3797708a4c48.yaml identifier: a2503492-7b41-4368-96f8-3797708a4c48 uri: /reference/a2503492-7b41-4368-96f8-3797708a4c48 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Interest in attributing the risk of damaging weather-related events to anthropogenic climate change is increasing1. Yet climate models used to study the attribution problem typically do not resolve the weather systems associated with damaging events2 such as the UK floods of October and November 2000. Occurring during the wettest autumn in England and Wales since records began in 17663, 4, these floods damaged nearly 10,000 properties across that region, disrupted services severely, and caused insured losses estimated at £1.3 billion (refs 5, 6). Although the flooding was deemed a ‘wake-up call’ to the impacts of climate change at the time7, such claims are typically supported only by general thermodynamic arguments that suggest increased extreme precipitation under global warming, but fail8, 9 to account fully for the complex hydrometeorology4, 10 associated with flooding. Here we present a multi-step, physically based ‘probabilistic event attribution’ framework showing that it is very likely that global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Using publicly volunteered distributed computing11, 12, we generate several thousand seasonal-forecast-resolution climate model simulations of autumn 2000 weather, both under realistic conditions, and under conditions as they might have been had these greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting large-scale warming never occurred. Results are fed into a precipitation-runoff model that is used to simulate severe daily river runoff events in England and Wales (proxy indicators of flood events). The precise magnitude of the anthropogenic contribution remains uncertain, but in nine out of ten cases our model results indicate that twentieth-century anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increased the risk of floods occurring in England and Wales in autumn 2000 by more than 20%, and in two out of three cases by more than 90%.' Author: "Pall, P.\rT. Aina\rD.A. Stone\rP.A. Stott\rT. Nozawa\rA.G.J. Hilberts\rD. Lohmann\rM.R. Allen" DOI: 10.1038/nature09762 ISSN: 0028-0836 Issue: 7334 Journal: Nature Keywords: 'Climate science ' Pages: 382-385 Title: Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000 URL: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v470/n7334/abs/nature09762.html Volume: 470 Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL"]' _record_number: 2406 _uuid: a5d1165d-0287-4f99-ad7d-75d8dcd3b32e reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nature09762 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/a5d1165d-0287-4f99-ad7d-75d8dcd3b32e.yaml identifier: a5d1165d-0287-4f99-ad7d-75d8dcd3b32e uri: /reference/a5d1165d-0287-4f99-ad7d-75d8dcd3b32e - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Derksen, C.\rBrown, R." DOI: 10.1029/2012gl053387 ISSN: 1944-8007 Issue: 19 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Keywords: "Arctic\rCMIP5\rsnow cover extent\rtrends\r0736 Snow\r1621 Cryospheric change" Pages: L19504 Title: Spring snow cover extent reductions in the 2008–2012 period exceeding climate model projections URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL053387/pdf Volume: 39 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 3715 _uuid: a5d9c470-fb16-499a-a4da-d88c7dab9845 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1029/2012gl053387 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/a5d9c470-fb16-499a-a4da-d88c7dab9845.yaml identifier: a5d9c470-fb16-499a-a4da-d88c7dab9845 uri: /reference/a5d9c470-fb16-499a-a4da-d88c7dab9845 - attrs: .publisher: American Meteorological Society .reference_type: 0 Access Date: 2013/06/07 Author: "Shi, Xiaogang\rDéry, Stephen J.\rGroisman, Pavel Ya\rLettenmaier, Dennis P." DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00044.1 Date: 2013/03/01 ISSN: 0894-8755 Issue: 6 Journal: Journal of Climate Pages: 2048-2064 Title: Relationships between recent pan-Arctic snow cover and hydroclimate trends URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00044.1 Volume: 26 Year: 2013 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 3748 _uuid: a600ab73-7283-4837-a5aa-5744d63e4a9b reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00044.1 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/a600ab73-7283-4837-a5aa-5744d63e4a9b.yaml identifier: a600ab73-7283-4837-a5aa-5744d63e4a9b uri: /reference/a600ab73-7283-4837-a5aa-5744d63e4a9b - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'The rapid retreat and thinning of the Arctic sea ice cover over the past several decades is one of the most striking manifestations of global climate change. Previous research revealed that the observed downward trend in September ice extent exceeded simulated trends from most models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3). We show here that as a group, simulated trends from the models contributing to CMIP5 are more consistent with observations over the satellite era (1979–2011). Trends from most ensemble members and models nevertheless remain smaller than the observed value. Pointing to strong impacts of internal climate variability, 16% of the ensemble member trends over the satellite era are statistically indistinguishable from zero. Results from the CMIP5 models do not appear to have appreciably reduced uncertainty as to when a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean will be realized. ' Author: "Stroeve, J.C.\rKattsov, V.\rBarrett, A.\rSerreze, M.\rPavlova, T.\rHolland, M.\rMeier, W.N." DOI: 10.1029/2012GL052676 ISSN: 0094-8276 Issue: 16 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Pages: L16502 Title: 'Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations' Volume: 39 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 24: Oceans FINAL","Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 2976 _uuid: a60d1734-9067-4e1e-9699-d8e998dfa4d3 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1029/2012GL052676 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/a60d1734-9067-4e1e-9699-d8e998dfa4d3.yaml identifier: a60d1734-9067-4e1e-9699-d8e998dfa4d3 uri: /reference/a60d1734-9067-4e1e-9699-d8e998dfa4d3 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Villarini, Gabriele\rSmith, James A." DOI: 10.1029/2009wr008395 ISSN: 1944-7973 Issue: 6 Journal: Water Resources Research Keywords: "stationarity\rtropical cyclone\rmixture distribution\rextreme\ranthropogenic effects\rclimate change\r1821 Floods\r1817 Extreme events\r1803 Anthropogenic effects\r1807 Climate impacts" Pages: W06504 Title: Flood peak distributions for the eastern United States URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009WR008395/pdf Volume: 46 Year: 2010 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","RF 2","Ch. 3: Water Resources FINAL"]' _record_number: 3704 _uuid: a639de52-b0d2-4580-a27c-5039d036d210 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1029/2009wr008395 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/a639de52-b0d2-4580-a27c-5039d036d210.yaml identifier: a639de52-b0d2-4580-a27c-5039d036d210 uri: /reference/a639de52-b0d2-4580-a27c-5039d036d210 - attrs: .publisher: Copernicus Publications .reference_type: 0 Author: "Hansen, J.\rSato, M.\rKharecha, P.\rvon Schuckmann, K." DOI: 10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011 ISSN: 1680-7324 Issue: 24 Journal: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Notes: ACP Pages: 13421-13449 Title: Earth's energy imbalance and implications URL: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/13421/2011/acp-11-13421-2011.pdf Volume: 11 Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 4368 _uuid: a6832010-da75-49a2-8901-7845b7a4a949 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/a6832010-da75-49a2-8901-7845b7a4a949.yaml identifier: a6832010-da75-49a2-8901-7845b7a4a949 uri: /reference/a6832010-da75-49a2-8901-7845b7a4a949 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'HAPEX-MOBILHY data, consisting of one year of hourly atmospheric forcing data at Caumont (SAMER No. 3, 43.68°N, 0.1°W) were used repeatedly to run the two-layer Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC-2L) land-surface scheme until the model reached equilibrium in its water and energy balance. The equilibrium results are compared with one year of weekly soil moisture measurements at different depths, the estimated latent heat fluxes for 35 days of the intensive observation period (IOP), and the accumulated evaporation, runoff and drainage for the entire soya crop season. The latent heat flux comparisons show that VIC-2L tends to underestimate the evaporation due to the low soil moisture in its upper layer. The soil moisture comparison shows that the total soil water content is well simulated in general, but the soil water content in the top 0.5 m is underestimated, especially in May and June. These comparisons suggest that the lack of a mechanism for moving moisture from the lower to the upper soil layer in VIC-2L is the main cause for model error in the HAPEX-MOBILHY application. A modified version of VIC-2L, which has a new feature that allows diffusion of moisture between soil layers, and a 0.1 m thin layer on top of the previous upper layer, is described. In addition, the leaf area index (LAI) and the fraction vegetation cover are allowed to vary at each time step in a manner consistent with the rest PILPS-RICE Workshop, rather than being seasonally fixed. With these modifications, the VIC-2L simulations are re-evaluated. These changes are shown to resolve most of the structural deficiencies in the original version of the model. The sensitivity analysis of the new version of the model to the choices of soil depths and root distribution show that the evapotranspiration and soil moisture at the model equilibrium state are more sensitive to the root distribution than to the soil depth.' Author: "Liang, X.\rE.F. Wood\rD.P. Lettenmaier" DOI: 10.1016/0921-8181(95)00046-1 ISSN: 0921-8181 Issue: 1-4 Journal: Global and Planetary Change Pages: 195-206 Title: 'Surface soil moisture parameterization of the VIC-2L model: Evaluation and modification' Volume: 13 Year: 1996 _chapter: '["RF 3","Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 1629 _uuid: a71d11d2-beed-43b3-8417-372422c035f6 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/0921-8181(95)00046-1 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/a71d11d2-beed-43b3-8417-372422c035f6.yaml identifier: a71d11d2-beed-43b3-8417-372422c035f6 uri: /reference/a71d11d2-beed-43b3-8417-372422c035f6 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 .text_styles: '' Abstract: 'Statistical relationships between annual floods at 200 long-term (85–127 years of record) streamgauges in the coterminous United States and the global mean carbon dioxide concentration (GMCO2) record are explored. The streamgauge locations are limited to those with little or no regulation or urban development. The coterminous US is divided into four large regions and stationary bootstrapping is used to evaluate if the patterns of these statistical associations are significantly different from what would be expected under the null hypothesis that flood magnitudes are independent of GMCO2. In none of the four regions defined in this study is there strong statistical evidence for flood magnitudes increasing with increasing GMCO2. One region, the southwest, showed a statistically significant negative relationship between GMCO2 and flood magnitudes. The statistical methods applied compensate both for the inter-site correlation of flood magnitudes and the shorter-term (up to a few decades) serial correlation of floods.' Author: "Hirsch, R.M.\rK.R. Ryberg" DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2011.621895 ISSN: 0262-6667 Issue: 1 Journal: Hydrological Sciences Journal Keywords: 'floods, ; trends, ; climate change, ; statistics, ; carbon dioxide' Pages: 1-9 Title: Has the magnitude of floods across the USA changed with global CO2 levels? URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02626667.2011.621895 Volume: 57 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","RF 2","Ch. 3: Water Resources FINAL"]' _record_number: 825 _uuid: a7f8dbf5-3ec8-4ee1-8740-014006b72bfd reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1080/02626667.2011.621895 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/a7f8dbf5-3ec8-4ee1-8740-014006b72bfd.yaml identifier: a7f8dbf5-3ec8-4ee1-8740-014006b72bfd uri: /reference/a7f8dbf5-3ec8-4ee1-8740-014006b72bfd - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Although severe thunderstorms are one of the primary causes of catastrophic loss in the United States, their response to elevated greenhouse forcing has remained a prominent source of uncertainty for climate change impacts assessment. We find that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5, global climate model ensemble indicates robust increases in the occurrence of severe thunderstorm environments over the eastern United States in response to further global warming. For spring and autumn, these robust increases emerge before mean global warming of 2 °C above the preindustrial baseline. We also find that days with high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and strong low-level wind shear increase in occurrence, suggesting an increasing likelihood of atmospheric conditions that contribute to the most severe events, including tornadoes. In contrast, whereas expected decreases in mean wind shear have been used to argue for a negative influence of global warming on severe thunderstorms, we find that decreases in shear are in fact concentrated in days with low CAPE and therefore do not decrease the total occurrence of severe environments. Further, we find that the shift toward high CAPE is most concentrated in days with low convective inhibition, increasing the occurrence of high-CAPE/low-convective inhibition days. The fact that the projected increases in severe environments are robust across a suite of climate models, emerge in response to relatively moderate global warming, and result from robust physical changes suggests that continued increases in greenhouse forcing are likely to increase severe thunderstorm occurrence, thereby increasing the risk of thunderstorm-related damage.' Author: "Diffenbaugh, Noah S.\rScherer, Martin\rTrapp, Robert J." DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1307758110 Date: 'October 8, 2013' Issue: 41 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Pages: 16361-16366 Title: Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing URL: http://www.pnas.org/content/110/41/16361.full.pdf+html Volume: 110 Year: 2013 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 4374 _uuid: a9795a79-2c2e-4695-8a1d-178e6006c916 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1307758110 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/a9795a79-2c2e-4695-8a1d-178e6006c916.yaml identifier: a9795a79-2c2e-4695-8a1d-178e6006c916 uri: /reference/a9795a79-2c2e-4695-8a1d-178e6006c916 - attrs: .publisher: AGU .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'This study examines the temporal variability of ocean heat uptake in observations and in climate models. Previous work suggests that coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (A-OGCMs) may have underestimated the observed natural variability of ocean heat content, particularly on decadal and longer timescales. To address this issue, we rely on observed estimates of heat content from the 2004 World Ocean Atlas (available at http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/indprod.html, hereinafter referred to as WOA-2004) compiled by Levitus et al., 2005. Given information about the distribution of observations in WOA-2004, we evaluate the effects of sparse observational coverage and the infilling that Levitus et al. use to produce the spatially complete temperature fields required to compute heat content variations. We first show that in ocean basins with limited observational coverage, there are important differences between ocean temperature variability estimated from observed and infilled portions of the basin. We then employ data from control simulations performed with eight different A-OGCMs as a test bed for studying the effects of sparse, space-varying and time-varying observational coverage. Subsampling model data with actual observational coverage has a large impact on the inferred temperature variability in the top 300 and 3000 m of the ocean. This arises from changes in both sampling depth and in the geographical areas sampled. Our results illustrate that subsampling model data at the locations of available observations increases the variability, reducing the discrepancy between models and observations.' Author: "AchutaRao, K. M.\rSanter, B. D.\rGleckler, P. J.\rTaylor, K. E.\rPierce, D. W.\rBarnett, T. P.\rWigley, T. M. L." DOI: 10.1029/2005jc003136 ISSN: 0148-0227 Issue: C5 Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Keywords: 'heat; ocean; variability; 1616 Global Change: Climate variability; 1626 Global Change: Global climate models; 4513 Oceanography: Physical: Decadal ocean variability' Pages: 20 Title: 'Variability of ocean heat uptake: Reconciling observations and models' Volume: 111 Year: 2006 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL"]' _record_number: 3646 _uuid: aaab80c9-5bef-4072-ab5a-2cea29a7a0a9 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1029/2005jc003136 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/aaab80c9-5bef-4072-ab5a-2cea29a7a0a9.yaml identifier: aaab80c9-5bef-4072-ab5a-2cea29a7a0a9 uri: /reference/aaab80c9-5bef-4072-ab5a-2cea29a7a0a9 - attrs: .publisher: 'Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.' .reference_type: 0 Author: "Deser, Clara\rKnutti, Reto\rSolomon, Susan\rPhillips, Adam S." DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1562 ISSN: 1758-678X Issue: 11 Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 775-779 Title: Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate URL: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n11/full/nclimate1562.html?WT.ec_id=NCLIMATE-201211 Volume: 2 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 3716 _uuid: aaae6beb-646c-41df-945d-3a2af8a72aee reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate1562 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/aaae6beb-646c-41df-945d-3a2af8a72aee.yaml identifier: aaae6beb-646c-41df-945d-3a2af8a72aee uri: /reference/aaae6beb-646c-41df-945d-3a2af8a72aee