--- - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Camargo, S.J.\rTing, M. \rKushnir, Y" DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1536-4 Date: March 2013 ISSN: 0930-7575 Issue: 5-6 Journal: Climate Dynamics Pages: 1515-1529 Title: Influence of local and remote SST on North Atlantic tropical cyclone potential intensity Volume: 40 Year: 2013 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","RF 2"]' _record_number: 966 _uuid: 5371039d-2ac7-492a-8e45-41c36a1a9d23 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s00382-012-1536-4 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/5371039d-2ac7-492a-8e45-41c36a1a9d23.yaml identifier: 5371039d-2ac7-492a-8e45-41c36a1a9d23 uri: /reference/5371039d-2ac7-492a-8e45-41c36a1a9d23 - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Access Year: 2012 Author: 'BAMS,' Place Published: 'Asheville, NC' Publisher: National Climatic Data Center Series Editor: BAMS Title: State of the Climate Reports URL: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/ Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","Ch. 3: Water Resources FINAL"]' _record_number: 1600 _uuid: 538dc9ec-c06e-4063-82df-855f4b03c997 reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/f65bb0ea-427a-4894-86c0-4629c86a0c28 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/538dc9ec-c06e-4063-82df-855f4b03c997.yaml identifier: 538dc9ec-c06e-4063-82df-855f4b03c997 uri: /reference/538dc9ec-c06e-4063-82df-855f4b03c997 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Fossil fuel emissions aside, temperate North America is a net sink of carbon dioxide at present1, 2, 3. Year-to-year variations in this carbon sink are linked to variations in hydroclimate that affect net ecosystem productivity3, 4. The severity and incidence of climatic extremes, including drought, have increased as a result of climate warming5, 6, 7, 8. Here, we examine the effect of the turn of the century drought in western North America on carbon uptake in the region, using reanalysis data, remote sensing observations and data from global monitoring networks. We show that the area-integrated strength of the western North American carbon sink declined by 30–298 Tg C  yr−1 during the 2000–2004 drought. We further document a pronounced drying of the terrestrial biosphere during this period, together with a reduction in river discharge and a loss of cropland productivity. We compare our findings with previous palaeoclimate reconstructions7 and show that the last drought of this magnitude occurred more than 800 years ago. Based on projected changes in precipitation and drought severity, we estimate that the present mid-latitude carbon sink of 177–623 Tg C yr−1 in western North America could disappear by the end of the century.' Author: "Schwalm, C.R.\rWilliams, C.A.\rSchaefer, K.\rBaldocchi, D.\rBlack, T.A.\rGoldstein, A.H.\rLaw, B.E.\rOechel, W.C.\rPaw, K.T.\rScott, R.L." DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1529 ISSN: 1752-0894 Issue: 8 Journal: Nature Geoscience Keywords: 'Biogeochemistry ; Climate science ; Hydrology, hydrogeology and limnology ' Pages: 551-556 Title: Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America URL: http://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1957/33148/LawBeverlyForestryReductionCarbonUptake.pdf?sequence=1 Volume: 5 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 13: Land Use and Land Cover Change FINAL","Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL"]' _record_number: 2792 _uuid: 5565ba84-7301-478d-b2a3-7bdc1c62f08f reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/ngeo1529 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/5565ba84-7301-478d-b2a3-7bdc1c62f08f.yaml identifier: 5565ba84-7301-478d-b2a3-7bdc1c62f08f uri: /reference/5565ba84-7301-478d-b2a3-7bdc1c62f08f - attrs: .publisher: American Meteorological Society .reference_type: 0 Access Date: 2013/06/07 Author: "Zhang, Rong\rDelworth, Thomas L.\rSutton, Rowan\rHodson, Daniel L. R.\rDixon, Keith W.\rHeld, Isaac M.\rKushnir, Yochanan\rMarshall, John\rMing, Yi\rMsadek, Rym\rRobson, Jon\rRosati, Anthony J.\rTing, MingFang\rVecchi, Gabriel A." DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-12-0331.1 Date: 2013/04/01 ISSN: 0022-4928 Issue: 4 Journal: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Pages: 1135-1144 Title: Have aerosols caused the observed Atlantic multidecadal variability? Volume: 70 Year: 2013 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 3757 _uuid: 562bc859-63f4-4d69-8818-64a7f545912a reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/jas-d-12-0331.1 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/562bc859-63f4-4d69-8818-64a7f545912a.yaml identifier: 562bc859-63f4-4d69-8818-64a7f545912a uri: /reference/562bc859-63f4-4d69-8818-64a7f545912a - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'A new homogeneous climate division monthly precipitation dataset [based on full network estimated precipitation (FNEP)] was created as an alternative to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) climate division dataset. These alternative climate division monthly precipitation values were estimated using an equal-weighted average of Cooperative Observer Program stations that contained serially complete time series. Missing station observations were estimated by a procedure that was optimized through testing on U.S.; Historical Climate Network stations. Inhomogeneities in the NCDC dataset arise from two principal causes. The pre-1931 estimation of NCDC climate division monthly precipitation from statewide averages led to a significant time series discontinuity in several climate divisions. From 1931 to the present, NCDC climate division averages have been calculated from a subset of available station data within each climate division, and temporal changes in the location of available stations have caused artificial changes in the time series. The; FNEP climate division dataset is recommended over theNCDCdataset for studies involving climate trends or long-term climate variability. According to the FNEP data, the 1895–2009 linear precipitation trend is positive across most of the United States, and trends exceed 10% per century across the southern plains and the Corn Belt. Remaining inhomogeneities from changes in gauge technology and station location may be responsible for an artificial trend of 1%–3% per century. ' Author: "McRoberts, D.B.\rJ.W. Nielsen-Gammon" DOI: 10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1 ISSN: 1558-8424 Issue: 6 Journal: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology Pages: 1187-1199 Title: A new homogenized climate division precipitation dataset for analysis of climate variability and climate change URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1 Volume: 50 Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 1970 _uuid: 5651d034-614a-4dba-ad5c-799de4507886 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/2010JAMC2626.1 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/5651d034-614a-4dba-ad5c-799de4507886.yaml identifier: 5651d034-614a-4dba-ad5c-799de4507886 uri: /reference/5651d034-614a-4dba-ad5c-799de4507886 - attrs: .publisher: American Meteorological Society .reference_type: 0 Access Date: 2013/06/07 Author: "Meehl, Gerald A.\rWashington, Warren M.\rWigley, T. M. L.\rArblaster, Julie M.\rDai, Aiguo" DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0426:saggfa>2.0.co;2 Date: 2003/02/01 ISSN: 0894-8755 Issue: 3 Journal: Journal of Climate Pages: 426-444 Title: Solar and greenhouse gas forcing and climate response in the twentieth century URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0442%282003%29016%3C0426%3ASAGGFA%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Volume: 16 Year: 2003 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 3732 _uuid: 5709fd19-ad05-4e1d-bbeb-b6ed23cb87c9 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016%3C0426:saggfa%3E2.0.co;2 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/5709fd19-ad05-4e1d-bbeb-b6ed23cb87c9.yaml identifier: 5709fd19-ad05-4e1d-bbeb-b6ed23cb87c9 uri: /reference/5709fd19-ad05-4e1d-bbeb-b6ed23cb87c9 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'An objective cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) 6-hourly mean sea level pressure fields for the period 1871–2010 to infer historical trends and variability in extra-tropical cyclone activity. The tracking algorithm is applied both to the ensemble-mean analyses and to each of the 56 ensemble members individually. The ensemble-mean analyses are found to be unsuitable for accurately determining cyclone statistics. However, pooled cyclone statistics obtained by averaging statistics from individual members generally agree well with statistics from the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses for 1951–2010, although 20CR shows somewhat weaker cyclone activity over land and stronger activity over oceans. Both reanalyses show similar cyclone trend patterns in the northern hemisphere (NH) over 1951–2010. Homogenized pooled cyclone statistics are analyzed for trends and variability. Conclusions account for identified inhomogeneities, which occurred before 1949 in the NH and between 1951 and 1985 in the southern hemisphere (SH). Cyclone activity is estimated to have increased slightly over the period 1871–2010 in the NH. More substantial increases are seen in the SH. Notable regional and seasonal variations in trends are evident, as is profound decadal or longer scale variability. For example, the NH increases occur mainly in the mid-latitude Pacific and high-latitude Atlantic regions. For the North Atlantic-European region and southeast Australia, the 20CR cyclone trends are in agreement with trends in geostrophic wind extremes derived from in-situ surface pressure observations. European trends are also consistent with trends in the mean duration of wet spells derived from rain gauge data in Europe.' Author: "Wang, X.L.\rFeng, Y.\rCompo, G.P.\rSwail, V.R.\rZwiers, F.W.\rAllan, R.J.\rSardeshmukh, P.D." DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1450-9 ISSN: 0930-7575 Issue: 11-12 Journal: Climate Dynamics Keywords: Reanalysis data; Extra-tropical cyclones; Cyclone tracking; Data homogeneity tests; Data homogenization; Trends and low frequency variability Pages: 2775-2800 Title: Trends and low frequency variability of extra-tropical cyclone activity in the ensemble of twentieth century reanalysis Volume: 40 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 25: Coastal Zone FINAL","Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","RF 2"]' _record_number: 3340 _uuid: 57610605-1682-4827-878f-c12c6e9b674c reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s00382-012-1450-9 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/57610605-1682-4827-878f-c12c6e9b674c.yaml identifier: 57610605-1682-4827-878f-c12c6e9b674c uri: /reference/57610605-1682-4827-878f-c12c6e9b674c - attrs: .publisher: American Meteorological Society .reference_type: 0 Access Date: 2013/06/07 Author: "Ramsay, Hamish A.\rSobel, Adam H." DOI: 10.1175/2010jcli3690.1 Date: 2011/01/01 ISSN: 0894-8755 Issue: 1 Journal: Journal of Climate Pages: 183-193 Title: Effects of relative and absolute sea surface temperature on tropical cyclone potential intensity using a single-column model URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010JCLI3690.1 Volume: 24 Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","RF 2"]' _record_number: 3740 _uuid: 576bc17b-32e3-4d5f-be56-c14506fa1fcc reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/2010jcli3690.1 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/576bc17b-32e3-4d5f-be56-c14506fa1fcc.yaml identifier: 576bc17b-32e3-4d5f-be56-c14506fa1fcc uri: /reference/576bc17b-32e3-4d5f-be56-c14506fa1fcc - attrs: .publisher: American Meteorological Society .reference_type: 0 Access Date: 2013/10/15 Author: "Vose, Russell S.\rApplequist, Scott\rBourassa, Mark A.\rPryor, Sara C.\rBarthelmie, Rebecca J.\rBlanton, Brian\rBromirski, Peter D.\rBrooks, Harold E.\rDeGaetano, Arthur T.\rDole, Randall M.\rEasterling, David R.\rJensen, Robert E.\rKarl, Thomas R.\rKatz, Richard W.\rKlink, Katherine\rKruk, Michael C.\rKunkel, Kenneth E.\rMacCracken, Michael C.\rPeterson, Thomas C.\rShein, Karsten\rThomas, Bridget R.\rWalsh, John E.\rWang, Xiaolan L.\rWehner, Michael F.\rWuebbles, Donald J.\rYoung, Robert S." DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00162.1 ISSN: 0003-0007 Journal: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Title: 'Monitoring and understanding changes in extremes: Extratropical storms, winds, and waves' URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00162.1 Volume: in press Year: 2013 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","RF 2","Ch. 4: Energy Supply and Use FINAL","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL"]' _record_number: 4375 _uuid: 596a7f1e-6ce5-4bdf-b144-d0715a7567bd reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00162.1 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/596a7f1e-6ce5-4bdf-b144-d0715a7567bd.yaml identifier: 596a7f1e-6ce5-4bdf-b144-d0715a7567bd uri: /reference/596a7f1e-6ce5-4bdf-b144-d0715a7567bd - attrs: .publisher: Nature Publishing Group .reference_type: 0 Author: "Le Quéré, Corinne\rRaupach, Michael R.\rCanadell, Josep G.\rMarland, Gregg\rBopp, Laurent\rCiais, Philippe\rConway, Thomas J.\rDoney, Scott C.\rFeely, Richard A.\rFoster, Pru\rFriedlingstein, Pierre\rGurney, Kevin\rHoughton, Richard A.\rHouse, Joanna I.\rHuntingford, Chris\rLevy, Peter E.\rLomas, Mark R.\rMajkut, Joseph\rMetzl, Nicolas\rOmetto, Jean P.\rPeters, Glen P.\rPrentice, I. Colin\rRanderson, James T.\rRunning, Steven W.\rSarmiento, Jorge L.\rSchuster, Ute\rSitch, Stephen\rTakahashi, Taro\rViovy, Nicolas\rvan der Werf, Guido R.\rWoodward, F. Ian" DOI: 10.1038/ngeo689 ISSN: 1752-0894 Issue: 12 Journal: Nature Geoscience Pages: 831-836 Title: Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide URL: http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n12/full/ngeo689.html Volume: 2 Year: 2009 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 1698 _uuid: 5972d180-5f4d-4bdb-ac46-b7e0308320a4 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/ngeo689 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/5972d180-5f4d-4bdb-ac46-b7e0308320a4.yaml identifier: 5972d180-5f4d-4bdb-ac46-b7e0308320a4 uri: /reference/5972d180-5f4d-4bdb-ac46-b7e0308320a4 - attrs: .publisher: American Meteorological Society .reference_type: 0 Access Date: 2013/06/06 Author: "Higgins, R. W.\rKousky, V. E." DOI: 10.1175/jhm-d-12-062.1 Date: 2013/02/01 ISSN: 1525-755X Issue: 1 Journal: Journal of Hydrometeorology Pages: 105-121 Title: Changes in observed daily precipitation over the United States between 1950–79 and 1980–2009 URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JHM-D-12-062.1 Volume: 14 Year: 2013 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 3700 _uuid: 59ade08b-0518-4dae-b825-f764d0ec4987 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/jhm-d-12-062.1 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/59ade08b-0518-4dae-b825-f764d0ec4987.yaml identifier: 59ade08b-0518-4dae-b825-f764d0ec4987 uri: /reference/59ade08b-0518-4dae-b825-f764d0ec4987 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'In examining intense precipitation over the central United States, the authors consider only days with precipitation when the daily total is above 12.7 mm and focus only on these days and multiday events constructed from such consecutive precipitation days. Analyses show that over the central United States, a statistically significant redistribution in the spectra of intense precipitation days/events during the past decades has occurred. Moderately heavy precipitation events (within a 12.7–25.4 mm day−1 range) became less frequent compared to days and events with precipitation totals above 25.4 mm. During the past 31 yr (compared to the 1948–78 period), significant increases occurred in the frequency of “very heavy” (the daily rain events above 76.2 mm) and extreme precipitation events (defined as daily and multiday rain events with totals above 154.9 mm or 6 in.), with up to 40% increases in the frequency of days and multiday extreme rain events. Tropical cyclones associated with extreme precipitation do not significantly contribute to the changes reported in this study. With time, the internal precipitation structure (e.g., mean and maximum hourly precipitation rates within each preselected range of daily or multiday event totals) did not noticeably change. Several possible causes of observed changes in intense precipitation over the central United States are discussed and/or tested.' Author: "Groisman, P.Y.\rKnight, R.W.\rKarl, T.R." DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-11-039.1 ISSN: 1525-755X Journal: Journal of Hydrometeorology Keywords: 'North America, ; Hydrologic cycle, ; Extreme events, ; Precipitation, ; In situ observations' Pages: 47-66 Title: Changes in intense precipitation over the central United States URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JHM-D-11-039.1 Volume: 13 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","Ch. 3: Water Resources FINAL","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL"]' _record_number: 211 _uuid: 5d909426-fab3-4dc8-af56-e5fe414ca97a reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/JHM-D-11-039.1 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/5d909426-fab3-4dc8-af56-e5fe414ca97a.yaml identifier: 5d909426-fab3-4dc8-af56-e5fe414ca97a uri: /reference/5d909426-fab3-4dc8-af56-e5fe414ca97a - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Wang, J.\rBai, X.\rHu, H.\rClites, A.\rColton, M.\rLofgren, B." DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1 ISSN: 1520-0442 Journal: Journal of Climate Pages: 1318-1329 Title: 'Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010' Volume: 25 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","Ch. 3: Water Resources FINAL","Ch. 18: Midwest FINAL"]' _record_number: 3334 _uuid: 5d9dedb4-4383-471f-9cee-05e0b16a457c reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/5d9dedb4-4383-471f-9cee-05e0b16a457c.yaml identifier: 5d9dedb4-4383-471f-9cee-05e0b16a457c uri: /reference/5d9dedb4-4383-471f-9cee-05e0b16a457c - attrs: .publisher: Springer-Verlag .reference_type: 0 Alternate Journal: Clim Dyn Author: "Rahmstorf, Stefan\rPerrette, Mahé\rVermeer, Martin" DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1226-7 Date: 2012/08/01 ISSN: 0930-7575 Issue: 3-4 Journal: Climate Dynamics Keywords: Ocean; Sea level; Global warming; Projections Language: English Pages: 861-875 Title: Testing the robustness of semi-empirical sea level projections Volume: 39 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 2578 _uuid: 5df71cae-9e7b-4209-bf75-b3dffd9da12c reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s00382-011-1226-7 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/5df71cae-9e7b-4209-bf75-b3dffd9da12c.yaml identifier: 5df71cae-9e7b-4209-bf75-b3dffd9da12c uri: /reference/5df71cae-9e7b-4209-bf75-b3dffd9da12c - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: "Dahl-Jensen, D.\rJ.J. Bamber\rC.E. Bøggild\rE. Buch\rJ.H.Christensen\rK. Dethloff\rM. Fahnestock\rS. Mashall\rM. Rosing\rK. Steffen\rR. Thomas\rM. Truffer\rvan den Broeke, M.\rvan der Veen, C." Book Title: 'Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA): Climate Change and the Cryosphere. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP)' Place Published: 'Oslo, Norway' Publisher: 'Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme ' Reviewer: 6282da28-f452-44a9-89d5-1406073184ed Title: 'Ch. 8: The Greenland Ice Sheet in a changing climate' URL: http://amap.no/swipa/CombinedReport.pdf Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 232 _uuid: 6282da28-f452-44a9-89d5-1406073184ed reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/amap-swipa-2011-overview-report href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/6282da28-f452-44a9-89d5-1406073184ed.yaml identifier: 6282da28-f452-44a9-89d5-1406073184ed uri: /reference/6282da28-f452-44a9-89d5-1406073184ed - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Fromm et al. and Vernier et al. suggest that their analyses of satellite measurements indicate that the main part of the Nabro volcanic plume from the eruption on 13 June 2011 was directly injected into the stratosphere. We address these analyses and, in addition, show that both wind trajectories and height-resolved profiles of sulfur dioxide indicate that although the eruption column may have extended higher than the Smithsonian report we highlighted, it was overwhelmingly tropospheric. Additionally, the height-resolved sulfur dioxide profiles provide further convincing evidence for convective transport of volcanic gas to the stratosphere from deep convection associated with the Asian monsoon.' Author: "Bourassa, Adam E.\rRobock, Alan\rRandel, William J.\rDeshler, Terry\rRieger, Landon A.\rLloyd, Nicholas D.\rLlewellyn, E. J.\rDegenstein, Douglas A." DOI: 10.1126/science.1227961 Date: 'February 8, 2013' Issue: 6120 Journal: Science Pages: 647 Title: Response to Comments on "Large volcanic aerosol load in the stratosphere linked to Asian monsoon transport" URL: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/339/6120/647.5.abstract Volume: 339 Year: 2013 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 3712 _uuid: 62b748d0-2351-465b-a2e4-c44b48958dd1 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1126/science.1227961 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/62b748d0-2351-465b-a2e4-c44b48958dd1.yaml identifier: 62b748d0-2351-465b-a2e4-c44b48958dd1 uri: /reference/62b748d0-2351-465b-a2e4-c44b48958dd1 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'The current observed value of the ratio of daily record high maximum temperatures to record low minimum temperatures averaged across the U.S. is about two to one. This is because records that were declining uniformly earlier in the 20th century following a decay proportional to 1/n (n being the number of years since the beginning of record keeping) have been declining less slowly for record highs than record lows since the late 1970s. Model simulations of U.S. 20th century climate show a greater ratio of about four to one due to more uniform warming across the U.S. than in observations. Following an A1B emission scenario for the 21st century, the U.S. ratio of record high maximum to record low minimum temperatures is projected to continue to increase, with ratios of about 20 to 1 by mid-century, and roughly 50 to 1 by the end of the century. ' Author: "Meehl, G.A.\rC. Tebaldi\rG. Walton\rD. Easterling\rL. McDaniel" DOI: 10.1029/2009GL040736 ISSN: 0094-8276 Issue: 5 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Pages: L23701 Title: Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the US URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009GL040736/pdf Volume: 36 Year: 2009 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 1981 _uuid: 62bcd3f7-a6f1-4b0b-85a8-29cbf7412579 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1029/2009GL040736 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/62bcd3f7-a6f1-4b0b-85a8-29cbf7412579.yaml identifier: 62bcd3f7-a6f1-4b0b-85a8-29cbf7412579 uri: /reference/62bcd3f7-a6f1-4b0b-85a8-29cbf7412579 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Analysis of the global mean surface air temperature has shown that its increase is due, at least in part, to differential changes in daily maximum and minimum temperatures, resulting in a narrowing of the diurnal temperature range (DTR). The analysis, using station metadata and improved areal coverage for much of the Southern Hemisphere landmass, indicates that the DTR is continuing to decrease in most parts of the world, that urban effects on globally and hemispherically averaged time series are negligible, and that circulation variations in parts of the Northern Hemisphere appear to be related to the DTR. Atmospheric aerosol loading in the Southern Hemisphere is much less than that in the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting that there are likely a number of factors, such as increases in cloudiness, contributing to the decreases in DTR.' Author: "Easterling, David R.\rHorton, Briony\rJones, Philip D.\rPeterson, Thomas C.\rKarl, Thomas R.\rParker, David E.\rSalinger, M. James\rRazuvayev, Vyacheslav\rPlummer, Neil\rJamason, Paul\rFolland, Christopher K." DOI: 10.1126/science.277.5324.364 Date: 'July 18, 1997' Issue: 5324 Journal: Science Pages: 364-367 Title: Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe Volume: 277 Year: 1997 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 4350 _uuid: 64aca5a3-3ede-46e6-8a1e-e53ef21dcf05 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1126/science.277.5324.364 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/64aca5a3-3ede-46e6-8a1e-e53ef21dcf05.yaml identifier: 64aca5a3-3ede-46e6-8a1e-e53ef21dcf05 uri: /reference/64aca5a3-3ede-46e6-8a1e-e53ef21dcf05 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'We assess the potential forecast skill of a climate model–based approach for seasonal ensemble hydrologic and streamflow forecasting for the western United States. By using climate model ensemble forecasts and ensembles formed via the resampling of observations, we distinguish hydrologic forecast skill resulting from the predictable evolution of initial hydrologic conditions from that derived from the climate model forecasts. Monthly climate model ensembles of precipitation and temperature produced by the National Centers for Environmental prediction global spectral model (GSM) are downscaled for use as forcings of the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. VIC then simulates ensembles of streamflow and spatially distributed hydrologic variables such as snowpack, soil moisture, and runoff. The regional averages of the ensemble forcings and derived hydrologic variables were evaluated over five regions: the Pacific Northwest, California, the Great Basin, the Colorado River basin, and the upper Rio Grande River basin. The skill assessment focuses on a retrospective 21-year period (1979–1999) during which GSM retrospective forecast ensembles (termed hindcasts), created using similar procedures to GSM real-time forecasts, are available. The observational verification data set for the hindcasts was a retrospective hydroclimatology at 1/8°–1/4° consisting of gridded observations of temperature and precipitation and gridded hydrologic simulation results (for hydrologic variables and streamflow) based on the observed meteorological inputs. The GSM hindcast skill was assessed relative to that of a naive ensemble climatology forecast and to that of ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) hindcasts, a forecast baseline sharing the same initial condition information as the GSM-based hindcasts. We found that the unconditional (all years) GSM hindcasts for regionally averaged variables provided practically no skill improvement over the ESP hindcasts and did not lead to improved regional hydrologic variable or streamflow forecasts. GSM-based conditional (strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years only) hindcasts, however, had higher skill in a number of hindcast months for surface air temperature, with mixed results (better and worse) for precipitation, depending on location and season. Consequently, for California and to a lesser extent the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, hydrologic hindcast skill in winter and fall increased enough under the strong ENSO composite that streamflow hindcasts were measurably better than with ESP. The opposite was found, however, for the Colorado and upper Rio Grande River basins, where the ENSO teleconnection is somewhat weaker. ' Author: "Wood, A.W.\rKumar, A.\rLettenmaier, D.P." DOI: 10.1029/2004JD004508 ISSN: 0148-0227 Issue: D04105 Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Pages: 16 Title: A retrospective assessment of National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate model–based ensemble hydrologic forecasting in the western United States Volume: 110 Year: 2005 _chapter: '["RF 3","Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]' _record_number: 3468 _uuid: 66b53949-2796-4cb3-ba86-0d0509f128fb reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1029/2004JD004508 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/66b53949-2796-4cb3-ba86-0d0509f128fb.yaml identifier: 66b53949-2796-4cb3-ba86-0d0509f128fb uri: /reference/66b53949-2796-4cb3-ba86-0d0509f128fb - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Changes in the circumstances behind in situ temperature measurements often lead to biases in individual station records that, collectively, can also bias regional temperature trends. Since these biases are comparable in magnitude to climate change signals, homogeneity “corrections” are necessary to make the records suitable for climate analysis. To quantify the effectiveness of U.S. surface temperature homogenization, a randomized perturbed ensemble of the USHCN pairwise homogenization algorithm was run against a suite of benchmark analogs to real monthly temperature data. Results indicate that all randomized versions of the algorithm consistently produce homogenized data closer to the true climate signal in the presence of widespread systematic errors. When applied to the real-world observations, the randomized ensemble reinforces previous understanding that the two dominant sources of bias in the U.S. temperature records are caused by changes to time of observation (spurious cooling in minimum and maximum) and conversion to electronic resistance thermometers (spurious cooling in maximum and warming in minimum). Error bounds defined by the ensemble output indicate that maximum temperature trends are positive for the past 30, 50 and 100 years, and that these maximums contain pervasive negative biases that cause the unhomogenized (raw) trends to fall below the lower limits of uncertainty. Moreover, because residual bias in the homogenized analogs is one-tailed under biased errors, it is likely that maximum temperature trends have been underestimated in the USHCN. Trends for minimum temperature are also positive over the three periods, but the ensemble error bounds encompass trends from the unhomogenized data.' Author: "Williams, C.N.\rMenne, M.J.\rThorne, P.W." DOI: 10.1029/2011JD016761 Issue: D5 Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Pages: 16 Title: Benchmarking the performance of pairwise homogenization of surface temperatures in the United States Volume: 117 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL"]' _record_number: 3440 _uuid: 66ccff5f-4828-4e03-be08-ee6f49296f34 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1029/2011JD016761 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/66ccff5f-4828-4e03-be08-ee6f49296f34.yaml identifier: 66ccff5f-4828-4e03-be08-ee6f49296f34 uri: /reference/66ccff5f-4828-4e03-be08-ee6f49296f34