--- attributes: ~ caption: 'The largest uncertainty in projecting climate change beyond the next few decades is the level of heat-trapping gas emissions. The most recent model projections (CMIP5) take into account a wider range of options with regard to human behavior, including a lower scenario than has been considered before (RCP 2.6). This scenario assumes rapid reductions in emissions – more than 70% cuts from current levels by 2050 and further large decreases by 2100 – and the corresponding smaller amount of warming. On the higher end, the scenarios include one that assumes continued increases in emissions (RCP 8.5) and the corresponding greater amount of warming. Also shown are temperature changes for the intermediate scenarios RCP 4.5 (which is most similar to B1) and RCP 6.0 (which is most similar to A1B; see Appendix 3: Climate Science Supplement). Projections show change in average temperature in the later part of this century (2071-2099) relative to the late part of last century (1970-1999). (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).' chapter: description: ~ display_name: 'Chapter 2: Our Changing Climate' doi: 10.7930/J0KW5CXT identifier: our-changing-climate number: 2 report_identifier: nca3 sort_key: 20 title: Our Changing Climate url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/introduction chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate cited_by: [] contributors: - display_name: 'Scientist : Kenneth Kunkel (Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC) ' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/contributor/2522.yaml id: 2522 organization: country_code: US display_name: 'Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC' identifier: cooperative-institute-climate-satellites-nc name: 'Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC' organization_type_identifier: academic type: organization url: http://www.cicsnc.org/ organization_uri: /organization/cooperative-institute-climate-satellites-nc person: display_name: Kenneth Kunkel first_name: Kenneth id: 1025 last_name: Kunkel middle_name: E. orcid: 0000-0001-6667-7047 type: person url: http://cicsnc.org/people/kenneth-kunkel/ person_id: 1025 person_uri: /person/1025 role_type_identifier: scientist uri: /contributor/2522 create_dt: 2014-04-09T15:24:54 description: 'The largest uncertainty in projecting climate change beyond the next few decades is the level of heat-trapping gas emissions. The most recent model projections (CMIP5) take into account a wider range of options with regard to human behavior, including a lower scenario than has been considered before (RCP 2.6). This scenario assumes rapid reductions in emissions – more than 70% cuts from current levels by 2050 and further large decreases by 2100 – and the corresponding smaller amount of warming. On the higher end, the scenarios include one that assumes continued increases in emissions (RCP 8.5) and the corresponding greater amount of warming. Also shown are temperature changes for the intermediate scenarios RCP 4.5 (which is most similar to B1) and RCP 6.0 (which is most similar to A1B; see Appendix 3: Climate Science Supplement). Projections show change in average temperature in the later part of this century (2071-2099) relative to the late part of last century (1970-1999). (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).' display_name: '2.9: Projected Temperature Change by 2071-2099 (CMIP5 models)' files: - display_name: CS_projected_temperature_change_RCPs_V8.png file: 0d/81/f8f022461b4cd0890006a24ec0d3/CS_projected_temperature_change_RCPs_V8.png href: http://data.globalchange.gov/assets/0d/81/f8f022461b4cd0890006a24ec0d3/CS_projected_temperature_change_RCPs_V8.png identifier: f3e6dd02-47df-4f8a-bcd2-589508abd931 landing_page: ~ location: ~ mime_type: image/png sha1: 723e376d3f02d0f40df5521fa6e089117ceaa0e9 size: 243226 thumbnail: 0d/81/f8f022461b4cd0890006a24ec0d3/.thumb-f3e6dd02-47df-4f8a-bcd2-589508abd931.png thumbnail_href: http://data.globalchange.gov/assets/0d/81/f8f022461b4cd0890006a24ec0d3/.thumb-f3e6dd02-47df-4f8a-bcd2-589508abd931.png type: file uri: /file/f3e6dd02-47df-4f8a-bcd2-589508abd931 url: http://data.globalchange.gov/assets/0d/81/f8f022461b4cd0890006a24ec0d3/CS_projected_temperature_change_RCPs_V8.png href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/projected-temperature-change-by-20712099-cmip5-models.yaml identifier: projected-temperature-change-by-20712099-cmip5-models images: - attributes: 'Temperature, projections, CMIP5, RCP 2.6' create_dt: 2013-11-19T16:38:00 description: ~ identifier: 54346951-ba34-4270-9296-9693ec7466c0 lat_max: 71.158 lat_min: 18.139 lon_max: -73.125 lon_min: -168.75 position: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2050-12-31T23:59:59 time_start: 1970-01-01T00:00:00 title: 'Newer Simulations for Projected Temperature (CMIP5 Models): RCP 2.6' url: ~ usage_limits: ~ - attributes: 'Temperature, projections, CMIP5, RCP 4.5' create_dt: 2013-11-19T16:38:00 description: ~ identifier: ab9fa765-c273-45af-9a17-017d151a9cde lat_max: 51.68 lat_min: 21.44 lon_max: -65.74 lon_min: -127.97 position: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2050-12-31T23:59:59 time_start: 1970-01-01T00:00:00 title: 'Newer Simulations for Projected Temperature (CMIP5 Models): RCP 4.5' url: ~ usage_limits: ~ - attributes: 'Temperature, projections, CMIP5, RCP 6.0' create_dt: 2013-11-19T16:38:00 description: ~ identifier: e4ee3f29-b2f6-48c5-975a-3a09cb5bb4c4 lat_max: 51.68 lat_min: 21.44 lon_max: -65.74 lon_min: -127.97 position: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2050-12-31T23:59:59 time_start: 1970-01-01T00:00:00 title: 'Newer Simulations for Projected Temperature (CMIP5 Models): RCP 6.0' url: ~ usage_limits: ~ - attributes: 'Temperature, projections, CMIP5, RCP 8.5' create_dt: 2013-11-19T16:38:00 description: ~ identifier: f9a4a9b6-fa2f-4a49-ba36-93b37cb63924 lat_max: 51.68 lat_min: 21.44 lon_max: -65.74 lon_min: -127.97 position: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2050-12-31T23:59:59 time_start: 1970-01-01T00:00:00 title: 'Newer Simulations for Projected Temperature (CMIP5 Models): RCP 8.5' url: ~ usage_limits: ~ kindred_figures: [] lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 9 parents: [] references: [] report: display_name: 'Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment' report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Projected Temperature Change by 2071-2099 (CMIP5 models) type: figure uri: /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/projected-temperature-change-by-20712099-cmip5-models url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/recent-us-temperature-trends/graphics/newer-simulations-projected usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source.