--- attributes: ~ caption: 'Different amounts of heat-trapping gases released into the atmosphere by human activities produce different projected increases in Earth’s temperature. In the figure, each line represents a central estimate of global average temperature rise (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for a specific emissions pathway. Shading indicates the range (5th to 95th percentile) of results from a suite of climate models. Projections in 2099 for additional emissions pathways are indicated by the bars to the right of each panel. In all cases, temperatures are expected to rise, although the difference between lower and higher emissions pathways is substantial. (Left) The panel shows the two main scenarios (SRES – Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) used in this report: A2 assumes continued increases in emissions throughout this century, and B1 assumes much slower increases in emissions beginning now and significant emissions reductions beginning around 2050, though not due explicitly to climate change policies. (Right) The panel shows newer analyses, which are results from the most recent generation of climate models (CMIP5) using the most recent emissions pathways (RCPs – Representative Concentration Pathways). Some of these new projections explicitly consider climate policies that would result in emissions reductions, which the SRES set did not.c54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682,da8af560-43fe-4825-8303-2bc772f26b88 The newest set includes both lower and higher pathways than did the previous set. The lowest emissions pathway shown here, RCP 2.6, assumes immediate and rapid reductions in emissions and would result in about 2.5°F of warming in this century. The highest pathway, RCP 8.5, roughly similar to a continuation of the current path of global emissions increases, is projected to lead to more than 8°F warming by 2100, with a high-end possibility of more than 11°F. (Data from CMIP3, CMIP5, and NOAA NCDC).' chapter: description: ~ display_name: 'Chapter 2: Our Changing Climate' doi: 10.7930/J0KW5CXT identifier: our-changing-climate number: 2 report_identifier: nca3 sort_key: 20 title: Our Changing Climate url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/introduction chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate cited_by: [] contributors: - display_name: 'Scientist : Kenneth Kunkel (Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC) ' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/contributor/2522.yaml id: 2522 organization: country_code: US display_name: 'Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC' identifier: cooperative-institute-climate-satellites-nc name: 'Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC' organization_type_identifier: academic type: organization url: http://www.cicsnc.org/ organization_uri: /organization/cooperative-institute-climate-satellites-nc person: display_name: Kenneth Kunkel first_name: Kenneth id: 1025 last_name: Kunkel middle_name: E. orcid: 0000-0001-6667-7047 type: person url: http://cicsnc.org/people/kenneth-kunkel/ person_id: 1025 person_uri: /person/1025 role_type_identifier: scientist uri: /contributor/2522 create_dt: 2014-03-17T09:43:07 description: 'Different amounts of heat-trapping gases released into the atmosphere by human activities produce different projected increases in Earth’s temperature. In the figure, each line represents a central estimate of global average temperature rise (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for a specific emissions pathway. Shading indicates the range (5th to 95th percentile) of results from a suite of climate models. Projections in 2099 for additional emissions pathways are indicated by the bars to the right of each panel. In all cases, temperatures are expected to rise, although the difference between lower and higher emissions pathways is substantial. (Left) The panel shows the two main scenarios (SRES – Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) used in this report: A2 assumes continued increases in emissions throughout this century, and B1 assumes much slower increases in emissions beginning now and significant emissions reductions beginning around 2050, though not due explicitly to climate change policies. (Right) The panel shows newer analyses, which are results from the most recent generation of climate models (CMIP5) using the most recent emissions pathways (RCPs – Representative Concentration Pathways). Some of these new projections explicitly consider climate policies that would result in emissions reductions, which the SRES set did not.c54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682,da8af560-43fe-4825-8303-2bc772f26b88 The newest set includes both lower and higher pathways than did the previous set. The lowest emissions pathway shown here, RCP 2.6, assumes immediate and rapid reductions in emissions and would result in about 2.5°F of warming in this century. The highest pathway, RCP 8.5, roughly similar to a continuation of the current path of global emissions increases, is projected to lead to more than 8°F warming by 2100, with a high-end possibility of more than 11°F. (Data from CMIP3, CMIP5, and NOAA NCDC).' display_name: '2.4: Emissions Levels Determine Temperature Rises' files: - display_name: CS_average_annual_temp_global_V7.png file: d6/f6/5a96b397d37268ef8a22ffd473a7/CS_average_annual_temp_global_V7.png href: http://data.globalchange.gov/assets/d6/f6/5a96b397d37268ef8a22ffd473a7/CS_average_annual_temp_global_V7.png identifier: 713b1d9c-8da2-4859-9473-6a0bf619432b landing_page: ~ location: ~ mime_type: image/png sha1: d95f9695e011c241d70e4968bb3bae69dd96c7cc size: 169344 thumbnail: d6/f6/5a96b397d37268ef8a22ffd473a7/.thumb-713b1d9c-8da2-4859-9473-6a0bf619432b.png thumbnail_href: http://data.globalchange.gov/assets/d6/f6/5a96b397d37268ef8a22ffd473a7/.thumb-713b1d9c-8da2-4859-9473-6a0bf619432b.png type: file uri: /file/713b1d9c-8da2-4859-9473-6a0bf619432b url: http://data.globalchange.gov/assets/d6/f6/5a96b397d37268ef8a22ffd473a7/CS_average_annual_temp_global_V7.png href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/emissions-levels-determine-temperature-rises.yaml identifier: emissions-levels-determine-temperature-rises images: - attributes: 'Global, temperature, projections, CMIP3' create_dt: 2013-12-13T10:18:00 description: ~ identifier: a405fab3-ee62-401c-8d93-347261d9eab9 lat_max: 90 lat_min: -90 lon_max: 180 lon_min: -180 position: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2100-12-31T23:59:59 time_start: 1900-01-01T00:00:00 title: 'Emissions Levels Determine Temperature Rises: CMIP3' url: ~ usage_limits: ~ - attributes: 'Global, temperature, projections, CMIP5' create_dt: 2013-12-13T10:18:00 description: ~ identifier: 6dafc8d5-9e40-4dd6-a63d-d456ec61a551 lat_max: 90 lat_min: -90 lon_max: 180 lon_min: -180 position: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2100-12-31T23:59:59 time_start: 1900-01-01T00:00:00 title: 'Emissions Levels Determine Temperature Rises: CMIP5' url: ~ usage_limits: ~ kindred_figures: - /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-faqs/figure/caq-emissions-levels-determine-temperature-rises lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 4 parents: [] references: - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/c54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682.yaml uri: /reference/c54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682 - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/da8af560-43fe-4825-8303-2bc772f26b88.yaml uri: /reference/da8af560-43fe-4825-8303-2bc772f26b88 report: display_name: 'Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment' report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'CMIP3, CMIP5, and NOAA NCDC' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Emissions Levels Determine Temperature Rises type: figure uri: /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/emissions-levels-determine-temperature-rises url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/future-climate/graphics/emission-levels-determine-temperature-rises usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source.