--- - attributes: ~ caption: "Reduced June flows in many Northwest snow-fed rivers is a signature of warming in basins that\r\n have a significant snowmelt contribution. The fraction of annual flow occurring in June increased slightly in rain-dominated\r\n coastal basins and decreased in mixed rain-snow basins and snowmelt-dominated basins over the period 1948 to\r\n 2008.cc98a8b5-74b3-4df2-8961-7799768da2ed The high flow period is in June for most\r\n Northwest river basins; decreases in summer flows can make it more difficult to meet a variety of competing human and natural\r\n demands for water. (Figure source: adapted from Fritze et al.\r\n 2011cc98a8b5-74b3-4df2-8961-7799768da2ed)." chapter_identifier: northwest create_dt: 2012-10-28T13:20:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/northwest/figure/observed-shifts-in-streamflow-timing.yaml identifier: observed-shifts-in-streamflow-timing lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 1 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'adapted from Fritze et al. 2011cc98a8b5-74b3-4df2-8961-7799768da2ed' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Observed Shifts in Streamflow Timing uri: /report/nca3/chapter/northwest/figure/observed-shifts-in-streamflow-timing url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/northwest/graphics/observed-shifts-streamflow-timing usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: "(Left) Projected increased winter flows and decreased summer flows in many Northwest rivers will cause widespread impacts. Mixed rain-snow watersheds, such as the Yakima River basin, an important agricultural area in eastern Washington, will see increased winter flows, earlier spring peak flows, and decreased summer flows in a warming climate. Changes in average monthly streamflow by the 2020s, 2040s, and 2080s (as compared to the period 1916 to 2006) indicate that the Yakima River basin could change from a snow-dominant to a rain-dominant basin by the 2080s under the A1B emissions scenario (with eventual reductions from current rising emissions trends). (Figure source: adapted from Elsner et al. 2010).f05b7c3d-51e4-4a58-ae86-c684b3682dd4\r\n\r\n\t(Right) Natural surface water availability during the already dry late summer period is projected to decrease across most of the Northwest. The map shows projected changes in local runoff (shading) and streamflow (colored circles) for the 2040s (compared to the period 1915 to 2006) under the same scenario as the left figure (A1B).e51238d0-cf6c-4cea-88a6-8d61df7e8e3d Streamflow reductions such as these would stress freshwater fish species (for instance, endangered salmon and bull trout) and necessitate increasing tradeoffs among conflicting uses of summer water. Watersheds with significant groundwater contributions to summer streamflow may be less responsive to climate change than indicated here.4f07c4b9-ff00-4d78-8433-3c94ef2eb6db" chapter_identifier: northwest create_dt: 2014-04-15T11:53:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/northwest/figure/future-shift-in-timing-of-stream-flows-reduced-summer-flows.yaml identifier: future-shift-in-timing-of-stream-flows-reduced-summer-flows lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 2 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Future Shift in Timing of Stream Flows Reduced Summer Flows uri: /report/nca3/chapter/northwest/figure/future-shift-in-timing-of-stream-flows-reduced-summer-flows url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/regions/northwest/graphics/future-shift-timing-streamflows usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Projected relative sea level rise for the latitude of Newport, Oregon (relative to the year 2000) is based on a broader suite of emissions scenarios (ranging from B1 to A1FI) and a more detailed and regionally-focused calculation than those generally used in this assessment (see Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate).ecf211c8-9abc-46ce-bf79-4a12099b02df The blue area shows the range of relative sea level rise, and the black line shows the projection, which incorporates global and regional effects of warming oceans, melting land ice, and vertical land movements.ecf211c8-9abc-46ce-bf79-4a12099b02df Given the difficulty of assigning likelihood to any one possible trajectory of sea level rise at this time, a reasonable risk assessment would consider multiple scenarios within the full range of possible outcomes shown, in conjunction with long- and short-term compounding effects, such as El Niño-related variability and storm surge. (Data from NRC 2012ecf211c8-9abc-46ce-bf79-4a12099b02df).' chapter_identifier: northwest create_dt: 2013-08-06T14:13:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/northwest/figure/projected-relative-sea-level-rise-for-the-latitude-of-newport-or.yaml identifier: projected-relative-sea-level-rise-for-the-latitude-of-newport-or lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 3 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'NRC 2012ecf211c8-9abc-46ce-bf79-4a12099b02df' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: 'Projected Relative Sea Level Rise for the Latitude of Newport, OR' uri: /report/nca3/chapter/northwest/figure/projected-relative-sea-level-rise-for-the-latitude-of-newport-or url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/northwest/graphics/projected-relative-sea-level-rise-latitude-newport-oregon usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: "Areas of Seattle projected by Seattle Public Utilities to be below sea level during high tide\r\n (Mean Higher High Water) and therefore at risk of flooding or inundation are shaded in blue under three levels of sea level\r\n rise,6ed217d6-4e42-49bd-ba0a-80e8df462b45 assuming no adaptation. (High [50 inches] and\r\n medium [13 inches] levels are within the range projected for the Northwest by 2100; the highest level [88 inches] includes the\r\n compounding effect of storm surge, derived from the highest observed historical tide in\r\n Seattlefd73d381-d3df-4079-b48d-20027a7ba63b). Unconnected inland areas shown to be below\r\n sea level may not be inundated, but could experience problems due to areas of standing water caused by a rise in the water\r\n table and drainage pipes backed up with seawater. (Figure source: Seattle Public\r\n Utilities7fdde2b7-0a3a-4f98-8434-c4040a41f3ac)." chapter_identifier: northwest create_dt: 2013-11-18T11:42:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/northwest/figure/rising-sea-levels-and-changing-flood-risks-in-seattle.yaml identifier: rising-sea-levels-and-changing-flood-risks-in-seattle lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 4 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: 'Seattle Public Utilities7fdde2b7-0a3a-4f98-8434-c4040a41f3ac' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Rising Sea Levels and Changing Flood Risks in Seattle uri: /report/nca3/chapter/northwest/figure/rising-sea-levels-and-changing-flood-risks-in-seattle url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/northwest/graphics/rising-sea-levels-and-changing-flood-risks-seattle usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: "In Washington’s Nisqually River Delta, estuary restoration on a large scale to assist\r\n salmon and wildlife recovery provides an example of adaptation to climate change and sea level rise. After a century of\r\n isolation behind dikes (left), much of the Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge was reconnected with tidal flow in 2009 by\r\n removal of a major dike and restoration of 762 acres (right), with the assistance of Ducks Unlimited and the Nisqually Indian\r\n Tribe. This reconnected more than 21 miles of historical tidal channels and floodplains with Puget\r\n Sound.57ade57f-f478-4008-882f-9e46fd08ae2d A new exterior dike was constructed to protect\r\n freshwater wetland habitat for migratory birds from tidal inundation and future sea level rise. Combined with expansion of the\r\n authorized Refuge boundary, ongoing acquisition efforts to expand the Refuge will enhance the ability to provide diverse\r\n estuary and freshwater habitats despite rising sea level, increasing river floods, and loss of estuarine habitat elsewhere in\r\n Puget Sound. This project is considered a major step in increasing estuary habitat and recovering the greater Puget Sound\r\n estuary. (Photo credits: (left) Jesse Barham, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; (right) Jean Takekawa, U.S. Fish and Wildlife\r\n Service)." chapter_identifier: northwest create_dt: 2013-11-18T11:47:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/northwest/figure/adapting-the-nisqually-river-delta-to-sea-level-rise.yaml identifier: adapting-the-nisqually-river-delta-to-sea-level-rise lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 5 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: '(left) Jesse Barham, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; (right) Jean Takekawa, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service' submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Adapting the Nisqually River Delta to Sea Level Rise uri: /report/nca3/chapter/northwest/figure/adapting-the-nisqually-river-delta-to-sea-level-rise url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/northwest/graphics/adapting-nisqually-river-delta-sea-level-rise usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: "Forest mortality due to fire and insect activity is already evident in the Northwest.\r\n Continued changes in climate in coming decades are expected to increase these effects. Trees killed by a fire (left side of\r\n watershed) and trees killed by mountain pine beetle and spruce beetle infestations (orange and gray patches, right side of\r\n watershed) in subalpine forest in the Pasayten Wilderness, Okanogan Wenatchee National Forest, Washington, illustrates how\r\n cumulative disturbances can affect forests. (Photo credit: Jeremy Littell, USGS)." chapter_identifier: northwest create_dt: 2013-11-18T11:50:00 href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/northwest/figure/forest-mortality.yaml identifier: forest-mortality lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 6 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Forest mortality uri: /report/nca3/chapter/northwest/figure/forest-mortality url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/northwest/graphics/forest-mortality usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: '(Top) Insects and fire have cumulatively affected large areas of the Northwest and are projected to be the dominant drivers of forest change in the near future. Map shows areas recently burned (1984 to 2008)6a3ce882-e3f6-47c6-a9ae-dacb25c45e7f,93ae895c-ab04-4801-bb47-ac963c7311c1 or affected by insects or disease (1997 to 2008).380d02ac-7dd7-49d6-8dc9-3c4a9b989061 (Middle) Map indicates the increases in area burned that would result from the regional temperature and precipitation changes associated with a 2.2°F global warminge6181014-644e-4d56-ada8-1d0443307a51 across areas that share broad climatic and vegetation characteristics.a60c82f3-709d-4de2-a3c6-9b0fcb62e410 Local impacts will vary greatly within these broad areas with sensitivity of fuels to climate.a30d550d-f0d3-4e76-a494-24b746cce0ed (Bottom) Projected changes in the probability of climatic suitability for mountain pine beetles for the period 2001 to 2030 (relative to 1961 to 1990), where brown indicates areas where pine beetles are projected to increase in the future and green indicates areas where pine beetles are expected to decrease in the future. Changes in probability of survival are based on climate-dependent factors important in beetle population success, including cold tolerance,0a78dcff-b2b2-4bed-b176-3628489645ad spring precipitation,3a5064c4-6ed0-455d-8e9c-9b470d0eed91 and seasonal heat accumulation.6cebef1a-87a8-4554-87d3-3ba18107dc04,703f4c0b-a9f3-4393-ad55-e26a62fa5a95' chapter_identifier: northwest create_dt: ~ href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/northwest/figure/insects-and-fire-in-northwest-forests.yaml identifier: insects-and-fire-in-northwest-forests lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 7 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Insects and Fire in Northwest Forests uri: /report/nca3/chapter/northwest/figure/insects-and-fire-in-northwest-forests url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/regions/northwest/graphics/insects-and-fire-northwest-forests usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source.