--- chapter: description: ~ doi: 10.7930/J0PN93H5 identifier: human-health number: 9 report_identifier: nca3 sort_key: 90 title: Human Health url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/human-health chapter_identifier: human-health cited_by: [] confidence: 'Overall: Very High confidence. There is considerable consensus and a high quality of evidence in the published peer-reviewed literature that a wide range of health effects will be exacerbated by climate change in the United States. There is less agreement on the magnitude of these effects because of the exposures in question and the multi-factorial nature of climate-health vulnerability, with regional and local differences in underlying health susceptibilities and adaptive capacity. Other uncertainties include how much effort and resources will be put into improving the adaptive capacity of public health systems to prepare in advance for the health effects of climate change, prevent harm to individual and community health, and limit associated health burdens and societal costs. Increased Ozone Exposure: Very High confidence. Allergens: High confidence. Wildfires: Very High confidence. Thermal Extremes: Very High confidence. Extreme Weather Events: Very High confidence. Vector-borne Infectious Diseases: High or Very High confidence for shift in range of disease-carrying vectors. Medium confidence for whether human disease transmission will follow. Food- and Waterborne disease: Medium confidence. Harmful Algal Blooms: Medium confidence. Food Security: Medium confidence for food quality; High confidence for food security. Threats to Mental Health: Very High confidence for post-disaster impacts; Medium confidence for climate-induced stress.' contributors: [] description: 'Climate change threatens human health and well-being in many ways, including impacts from increased extreme weather events, wildfire, decreased air quality, threats to mental health, and illnesses transmitted by food, water, and diseases-carriers such as mosquitoes and ticks. Some of these health impacts are already underway in the United States.' display_name: NCA3 Finding 9.1 evidence: "The key message and supporting text summarizes extensive evidence documented in several foundational technical inputs prepared for this chapter, including a literature review5836b5e1-c6fa-4eaa-b453-93304c3021d5 and workshop reports for the Northwest and Southeast United States. Nearly 60 additional technical inputs related to human health were received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. \r\nAir Pollution:\r\nThe effects of decreased ozone air quality on human health have been well documented concerning projected increases in ozone,9d61dfcc-c3f3-4814-809a-22f08d31ab48,d6e399c7-1efe-4f91-927e-f957965e3aaa,f5f232cf-d5d9-418f-9437-6b6b66cdcf86,9df9d372-1c41-4065-890e-9784acbd6005,14e6e3ee-86da-47b9-9a7d-a7fef9f1f758,85bd009d-5a5b-41c1-9195-26f57256413d,1a34e7a8-ddbc-4692-be94-44dd31bd5777,b8742545-e96a-4595-922d-b1262c7658d0,afbd60ab-ba9f-4547-88e3-968bc3a4b949 even with uncertainties in projections owing to the complex formation chemistry of ozone and climate change, precursor chemical inventories, wildfire emission, stagnation episodes, methane emissions, regulatory controls, and population characteristics.9221a18a-805b-4508-9e90-8caaa968a715 Ozone exposure leads to a number of health impacts.2a99259b-1d04-4d93-8ab5-2b02e5b75b2e,56b8fc2a-b9ea-4187-9038-e58d51b52c5b,2d58d3bb-62b3-45f2-b4c9-10d22b556f9c\r\nAllergens:\r\nThe effects of increased temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentration have been documented concerning shifts in flowering time and pollen initiation from allergenic plants, elevated production of plant-based allergens, and health effects of increased pollen concentrations and longer pollen seasons.56ba6aa9-7c56-4127-af29-64cb65e62319,cc3e5e5c-7e75-468e-b992-9806ac6f07bd,0b3b0345-837c-4be4-9e68-6dd8d6ea5e51,036ba27d-8341-4f6d-ad66-1288e53dee65,c681c3c2-48a8-4fe6-8e91-86db5bff7fa3,f3bb3bdd-bb8a-45d9-bb24-3d99824a5a0a,7eaad122-f1a7-4062-bbfc-c4c9ad7d3078,0e8764f8-e7e0-44b4-89cc-218100c5049f,d3eacb8b-2f2a-4ac5-9554-09fc1dbd706f,1c307875-852a-4593-8a27-8631d0b892b9,b9370347-fe7c-4b6f-9d49-af723ed931a4,49d46c73-b2da-4977-8c94-fc8d6954d0a0 Additional studies have shown extreme rainfall and higher temperatures can lead to increased indoor air quality issues such as fungi and mold health concerns.fe69d52e-ac37-4d64-9307-9076bb5270a7,c2e46e42-7cb9-4bb0-91df-c676943cd62a,9787187e-18a1-4e16-a244-f96aec28fbff,dd4ad6ad-d135-4c25-9fe0-e462253fcf01 \r\nWildfire:\r\nThe effects of wildfire on human health have been well documented with increase in wildfire frequency036ba27d-8341-4f6d-ad66-1288e53dee65,391560e0-40c1-4f9d-b063-e87d18c87e02,29c056a0-9f13-4eb6-8783-42fbac1302e1,675223d5-b171-46be-9e57-632d71d10204,e1e1f3a0-9fea-4ad2-a3af-575716f9849e,b95e9226-076c-4eb5-9367-472499624084,afbd60ab-ba9f-4547-88e3-968bc3a4b949,f0797ed7-cfce-4040-aebd-b5afc3393d55 leading to decreased air qualityc4dfc48f-0915-4916-8402-a68ee7f5471e,0d2f1e72-f7e5-4ab0-8dce-cd22cdd2617a,ff976c12-df99-41bc-b0c7-464784c38941,10d9c653-28e6-45c4-92f7-cfc2f8218080,0e8fc18d-c727-48b5-ad4e-6eebd620f622,2784ddd2-c6dc-4f94-a943-3218b6623a7c and negative health impacts.0d2f1e72-f7e5-4ab0-8dce-cd22cdd2617a,1a72beb2-f4a0-4db9-bac8-eac55cbf676d,ea4d54e3-419a-41ef-8ec9-38590dba75b9,72933923-2018-4811-8e01-6c9ffc8e0db4\r\nTemperature Extremes:\r\nThe effects of temperature extremes on human health have been well documented for increased heat waves,7de011b1-2d12-48e0-b3e1-0d81e4a8a7d6,315edcf2-107b-449d-b694-5d5a3c87ebbb,580f7af6-b0eb-4ebb-8da4-ab0a0b8ef68b,6168163c-2f61-4593-810e-fe389a8f7834 which cause more deaths,28b8aa29-bfe6-4d88-b73f-fe736f5042b6,f150b127-71ae-4dd2-b414-5590dcfbb80e hospital admissions7ed57375-4f4f-4157-9784-0d09fb2beae1,7f0eb22c-9da0-4cc2-a04f-3bcbbbef317d,22344c1d-cee2-4f9d-91c0-60ceb6e9ca57 and population vulnerability.d7337bde-d182-4ad9-bd11-b1b00c431ea7,24685210-b8ba-4951-b33c-bb43939d53ba \r\nPrecipitation Extremes - Heavy Rainfall, Flooding, and Droughts:\r\nThe effects of weather extremes on human health have been well documented, particularly for increased heavy precipitation, which has contributed to increases in severe flooding events in certain regions. Floods are the second deadliest of all weather-related hazards in the United States.5884b839-f80e-471d-82a9-c3bac6603227,a1b08f2f-e94c-4628-b82a-a646e71116ec Elevated waterborne disease outbreaks have been reported in the weeks following heavy rainfall,dba82efa-be61-4edd-af85-ee5e3ed07139 although other variables may affect these associations.91493d3b-4841-4022-860a-46f961ff4534 Populations living in damp indoor environments experience increased prevalence of asthma and other upper respiratory tract symptoms.dd2ae1f1-d28c-40b5-9a8f-ec46d6be86cb \r\nDisease Carried by Vectors:\r\nClimate is one of the factors that influence the range of disease vectors; 247e6da1-509e-46b7-956b-e39ff5bb87b9,d8639fa7-50e5-4103-808d-9ee8d11d3017,687c4ff2-5eea-4639-9949-abe1802e19be a shift in the current range may increase interactions with people and affect human health.4ae65d1d-6029-4cbc-bb94-a959b1248449,cebfc297-bf30-4501-ab0c-58fce0df35b8,f625d9e8-03ca-4529-b711-4337eab4fd1f,d62b2dd6-ea37-41be-a6fb-5d45320fea28 North Americans are currently at risk from a number of vector-borne diseases.8af8019f-cb74-439e-9d95-f5febef01d2f,77f948ec-3f41-4367-a120-6096a78706f5,1ba3decc-52e5-4aa8-84e5-d706838bc0e4,dd8f9880-294f-45b5-9090-426a0b146e08,bb2ac3a7-743b-40fd-9888-fbc4209f2782,1565a1be-5aa3-4a4c-b1e8-d434a348b3ce,d64171cf-ca5d-4fe7-94df-739b33cc8cb0,4feaa87e-fd56-4e7f-b059-787bb01e11fc,6cf210b3-abcd-474a-b270-b4e346898e75,10973e71-74e8-4308-864b-a90aadfba382,db741c59-3276-430e-b3ff-2cea74073263,6d74c91c-b4e6-4d19-9a20-589c8e519148,accbf1b4-1ef4-460c-b77f-5a4ea4c15532 There are some ambiguities on the relative role and contribution of climate change among the range of factors that affect disease transmission dynamics.4ae65d1d-6029-4cbc-bb94-a959b1248449,cc7c424e-b684-414f-8896-af2d2fee05b6,247e6da1-509e-46b7-956b-e39ff5bb87b9,d8639fa7-50e5-4103-808d-9ee8d11d3017,8af8019f-cb74-439e-9d95-f5febef01d2f,cebfc297-bf30-4501-ab0c-58fce0df35b8,f625d9e8-03ca-4529-b711-4337eab4fd1f,d62b2dd6-ea37-41be-a6fb-5d45320fea28,687c4ff2-5eea-4639-9949-abe1802e19be However, observational studies are already underway and confidence is high based on scientific literature that climate change has contributed to the expanded range of certain disease vectors, including Ixodes ticks which are vectors for Lyme disease in the United States.42a70c4d-4b63-4a1c-bf87-785383d013dc,001ff09f-665d-4872-acdc-11e8af22e83e,2970d11e-802d-4df1-b0b4-e1f0684e7425\r\nFood- and Waterborne Diarrheal Disease: \r\nThere has been extensive research concerning the effects of climate change on water- and food-borne disease transmission.12b8de4f-5527-4afb-88fd-056fafdd9b12,01c49cdf-06bb-41ef-95be-37a8553295b7,dbc4911d-950a-434b-b067-7dd438e2d45b,986057a7-7c6a-4d52-abbe-480652e4131f,2e14106d-235f-4140-920c-0d6c64e3b72a,6dc3924f-8cb4-4183-9a2c-78457dd00846,bb57c512-c1d5-472c-88e2-5760610c93fd,b3528935-e211-45c8-872f-2a9d6c7e0093,a5d4557b-2340-45c2-89cd-4c2bc5e9d720,03009fa3-0b53-44b8-a890-6e3ac5850680,64b2c0fc-7c3c-4b6e-acd6-fd384be7d7f6 The current evidence base strongly supports waterborne diarrheal disease being both seasonal and sensitive to climate variability. There are also multiple studies associating extreme precipitation events with waterborne disease outbreaks.dba82efa-be61-4edd-af85-ee5e3ed07139 This evidence of responsiveness of waterborne disease to weather and climate, combined with evidence strongly suggesting that temperatures will increase and extreme precipitation events will increase in frequency and severity (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate), provides a strong argument for climate change impacts on waterborne disease by analogy. There are multiple studies associating extreme precipitation events with waterborne disease outbreaks and strong climatological evidence for increasing frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in the future. The scientific literature modeling the projected impacts of climate change on waterborne disease is somewhat limited, however. Combined, we therefore have overall medium confidence in the impact of climate change on waterborne and food-borne disease.\r\nHarmful Algal Blooms:\r\nBecause algal blooms are closely related to climate factors, projected changes in climate could affect algal blooms and lead to increases in food- and waterborne exposures and subsequent cases of illness.03009fa3-0b53-44b8-a890-6e3ac5850680,64b2c0fc-7c3c-4b6e-acd6-fd384be7d7f6,918354f7-f16e-4cad-9289-20d41305abb8,da0435d7-46ed-4cc5-bb32-921edfc711a0,81a84ac5-4314-41ff-8ee8-1620db18cd00,030e3539-a620-441c-adb6-042db1a3fa6e,3325ef64-347b-4c33-9289-9e05e905dcbe Harmful algal blooms have multiple exposure routes.45c78ce3-56d1-4ed8-864b-bca300114602,735320eb-92d5-401c-957d-993e06668fa8,c41878da-d01e-4bfc-a839-484d89334c7a \r\nFood Security:\r\nClimate change is expected to have global impacts on both food production and certain aspects of food quality. The impact of temperature extremes, changes in precipitation and elevated atmospheric CO2, and increasing competition from weeds and pests on crop plants are areas of active research (Ch. 6: Agriculture, Key Message 6).2334a252-10b7-4f9a-8312-409147a7333a,5b19a296-8813-4bbf-a292-2b555607a74b,0da20a61-8e46-4547-ae2d-18e927ea9224,af9250bc-28b0-4ad7-a9b7-021ff769d8fe,242761d1-1e32-4bd8-92a1-24f527121099,3818382e-ae71-4de7-9b23-0a5d9195ae5f,b4dfdd6a-ffce-44a3-b6b7-5770f5c70fbb,d4e4b28f-2018-42c7-9131-dd60ab9946c3,49d46c73-b2da-4977-8c94-fc8d6954d0a0 The U.S. as a whole will be less affected than some other countries. However, the most vulnerable, including those dependent on subsistence lifestyles, especially Alaska Natives and low-income populations, will confront shortages of key foods. \r\nMental Health and Stress-Related Disorders:\r\nThe effects of extreme weather on mental health have been extensively studied.88cd6f85-8f7f-4946-9e7b-4b1ad1590858,34647534-8863-4fde-b8d0-f24bcdc4fcc6,9845a991-d58b-409b-91b9-670cc383d030,8eccc146-c874-49ff-ba79-160c0e12c158 Studies have shown the impacts of mental health problems after disasters,6fc9a84e-1ac3-4301-80f5-cb4bf0806428,465e189f-798c-4db7-a381-6c2cb6f9c565,c4f4b08b-a7a1-4c34-8220-a7f881f5be47 with extreme events like Hurricane Katrina,0e71e17a-442f-46d8-b62f-cc3213f85208,8702da89-76d0-44e1-9eda-b04dc6a26385 floods,de8e1aa9-dc37-4056-90f7-d11b9fa20f2c,63de15ee-1f68-4899-a9f2-067f3ec89bda heat waves,922bcd50-dd07-4e05-afc7-fe3bcb1a953a and wildfiresceafce9f-08b6-4a6f-accb-95678efa13c9 having led to mental health problems. Further work has shown that some people with mental illnesses are especially vulnerable to heat. Suicide rates vary with weather,f3f74a8a-8d03-4770-8765-66c57dd40da3,83c98464-a66f-4c93-8698-a45966ccc96b,bf16e763-fb16-45db-bdb9-e533ccb2bdac dementia is a risk factor for hospitalization and death during heat waves,922bcd50-dd07-4e05-afc7-fe3bcb1a953a,8bf8d41a-8b94-4ec2-95f0-cfd77b48685e and medications for schizophrenia may interfere with temperature regulation or even directly cause hyperthermia.1e9a7907-02f2-4da8-9e93-131f92515dbc,114cd0b9-5577-4c58-b5b1-24c822dd4ad7 Additional potential mental health impacts include distress associated with environmental degradation, displacement, and the knowledge of climate change.34647534-8863-4fde-b8d0-f24bcdc4fcc6,9845a991-d58b-409b-91b9-670cc383d030,ac2a32ac-2dce-4cf0-943a-f788c508b72a,06f5500e-fab9-4da4-b90d-aed04d543f83\r\n" files: [] href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/human-health/finding/climate-change-threatens-health.yaml identifier: climate-change-threatens-health ordinal: 1 parents: [] process: 'The key messages were developed during technical discussions and expert deliberation at a two-day meeting of the eight chapter Lead Authors, plus Susan Hassol and Daniel Glick, held in Boulder, Colorado May 8-9, 2012; through multiple technical discussions via six teleconferences from January through June 2012, and an author team call to finalize the Traceable Account draft language on Oct 12, 2012; and through other various communications on points of detail and issues of expert judgment in the interim. The author team also engaged in targeted consultations during multiple exchanges with Contributing Authors, who provided additional expertise on subsets of the key message. These discussions were held after a review of the technical inputs and associated literature pertaining to human health, including a literature review,5836b5e1-c6fa-4eaa-b453-93304c3021d5 workshop reports for the Northwest and Southeast United States, and additional technical inputs on a variety of topics. ' references: - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/001ff09f-665d-4872-acdc-11e8af22e83e.yaml uri: /reference/001ff09f-665d-4872-acdc-11e8af22e83e - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/01c49cdf-06bb-41ef-95be-37a8553295b7.yaml uri: /reference/01c49cdf-06bb-41ef-95be-37a8553295b7 - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/03009fa3-0b53-44b8-a890-6e3ac5850680.yaml uri: /reference/03009fa3-0b53-44b8-a890-6e3ac5850680 - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/030e3539-a620-441c-adb6-042db1a3fa6e.yaml uri: /reference/030e3539-a620-441c-adb6-042db1a3fa6e - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/036ba27d-8341-4f6d-ad66-1288e53dee65.yaml uri: /reference/036ba27d-8341-4f6d-ad66-1288e53dee65 - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/06f5500e-fab9-4da4-b90d-aed04d543f83.yaml uri: /reference/06f5500e-fab9-4da4-b90d-aed04d543f83 - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/0b3b0345-837c-4be4-9e68-6dd8d6ea5e51.yaml uri: /reference/0b3b0345-837c-4be4-9e68-6dd8d6ea5e51 - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/0d2f1e72-f7e5-4ab0-8dce-cd22cdd2617a.yaml uri: /reference/0d2f1e72-f7e5-4ab0-8dce-cd22cdd2617a - 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Some of these health impacts are already underway in the United States.' type: finding uncertainties: 'Important new evidence on heat-health effectse2f39823-225f-43ea-ae65-dfc3d73bf9a6,1f4ec538-27f4-4a34-9d75-2d4cf9d2e960,71cceabc-45d8-4b40-bb94-30755e6db7d3 confirmed many of the findings from a prior literature review. Uncertainties in the magnitude of projections of future climate-related morbidity and mortality can result from differences in climate model projections of the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heat waves and other climate parameters such as precipitation. Efforts to improve the information base should address the coordinated monitoring of climate and improved surveillance of health effects.' uri: /report/nca3/chapter/human-health/finding/climate-change-threatens-health url: ~