--- chapter: description: ~ doi: 10.7930/J0TD9V7H identifier: ecosystems number: 8 report_identifier: nca3 sort_key: 80 title: 'Ecosystems, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem Services' url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/ecosystems chapter_identifier: ecosystems cited_by: [] confidence: 'Given the evidence base and uncertainties, there is very high confidence that the timing of critical events, such as spring bud burst, emergence from overwintering, and the start of migrations, has shifted, leading to important impacts on species and habitats. ' contributors: [] description: 'Timing of critical biological events, such as spring bud burst, emergence from overwintering, and the start of migrations, has shifted, leading to important impacts on species and habitats.' display_name: NCA3 Finding 8.4 evidence: "The key message and supporting text summarizes extensive evidence documented in the Ecosystems Technical Input, Phenology as a bio-indicator of climate change impacts on people and ecosystems: Towards an integrated national assessment approach.13f67e66-80b2-4732-992a-1f4fd1e91d03 An additional 127 input reports, on a wide range of topics related to ecosystems, were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. \r\nMany studies have documented an advance in springtime phenological events of species in response to climate warming. For example, long-term observations of lilac flowering indicate that the onset of spring has advanced one day earlier per decade across the northern hemisphere in response to increased winter and spring temperatures, and by 1.5 days per decade earlier in the western United States.655d6652-08ae-4f55-960d-f06297e9eb9e,56447233-ad64-46b3-8371-925de98e78c0 Other multi-decadal studies for plant species have documented similar trends for early flowering.a454cc19-a815-4db9-b074-bb97cb5925fb,5bb98e9a-bb4f-4653-9ad2-8a34477a67dd,bab55be2-dd1f-4525-aaa0-b7c1f3c975f4,a7b4b70b-7218-483a-8c77-2f593629fa96 Evidence suggests that insect emergence from overwintering may become out of sync with pollen sources,241f3e50-9b98-464f-b6a7-dc0b6ee243a1 and that the beginning of bird and fish migrations are shifting.f5e7f46d-c229-4474-b70b-6f9478134320,d5af6e55-d90e-4258-b455-c95fc6c9994c,eeb20593-b221-4b48-9da2-eae062a14757,7fb94ff1-3d43-4aac-8c66-97633790422b,f8043f85-6a17-419e-bd3c-60b4bfdc2a9a,699a7dbf-7a48-439f-8272-b1daf9bad9b1\r\n" files: [] href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/critical-biological-events-shift.yaml identifier: critical-biological-events-shift ordinal: 4 parents: [] process: 'The key messages and supporting chapter text summarize extensive evidence documented in the Ecosystems Technical Input Report, Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Ecosystem Services: Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment.7406884d-2302-4644-aa50-12ed8baf4fd7 This foundational report evolved from a technical workshop held at the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation in Palo Alto, CA, in January 2012 and attended by approximately 65 scientists. Technical inputs (127) on a wide range of topics related to ecosystems were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input.' references: - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/03297bb4-3833-4606-ae88-a166d29b7288.yaml uri: /reference/03297bb4-3833-4606-ae88-a166d29b7288 - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/13f67e66-80b2-4732-992a-1f4fd1e91d03.yaml uri: /reference/13f67e66-80b2-4732-992a-1f4fd1e91d03 - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/241f3e50-9b98-464f-b6a7-dc0b6ee243a1.yaml uri: /reference/241f3e50-9b98-464f-b6a7-dc0b6ee243a1 - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/37f4c175-f826-4106-8f9e-1661f51a470c.yaml uri: /reference/37f4c175-f826-4106-8f9e-1661f51a470c - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/56447233-ad64-46b3-8371-925de98e78c0.yaml uri: /reference/56447233-ad64-46b3-8371-925de98e78c0 - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/5bb98e9a-bb4f-4653-9ad2-8a34477a67dd.yaml uri: /reference/5bb98e9a-bb4f-4653-9ad2-8a34477a67dd - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/655d6652-08ae-4f55-960d-f06297e9eb9e.yaml uri: /reference/655d6652-08ae-4f55-960d-f06297e9eb9e - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/699a7dbf-7a48-439f-8272-b1daf9bad9b1.yaml uri: /reference/699a7dbf-7a48-439f-8272-b1daf9bad9b1 - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/7406884d-2302-4644-aa50-12ed8baf4fd7.yaml uri: /reference/7406884d-2302-4644-aa50-12ed8baf4fd7 - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/7fb94ff1-3d43-4aac-8c66-97633790422b.yaml uri: /reference/7fb94ff1-3d43-4aac-8c66-97633790422b - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/a454cc19-a815-4db9-b074-bb97cb5925fb.yaml uri: /reference/a454cc19-a815-4db9-b074-bb97cb5925fb - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/a7b4b70b-7218-483a-8c77-2f593629fa96.yaml uri: /reference/a7b4b70b-7218-483a-8c77-2f593629fa96 - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/b0ab019c-3ea7-4e75-986c-2cc74541c187.yaml uri: /reference/b0ab019c-3ea7-4e75-986c-2cc74541c187 - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/bab55be2-dd1f-4525-aaa0-b7c1f3c975f4.yaml uri: /reference/bab55be2-dd1f-4525-aaa0-b7c1f3c975f4 - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/d5af6e55-d90e-4258-b455-c95fc6c9994c.yaml uri: /reference/d5af6e55-d90e-4258-b455-c95fc6c9994c - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a.yaml uri: /reference/e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/eeb20593-b221-4b48-9da2-eae062a14757.yaml uri: /reference/eeb20593-b221-4b48-9da2-eae062a14757 - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/f5e7f46d-c229-4474-b70b-6f9478134320.yaml uri: /reference/f5e7f46d-c229-4474-b70b-6f9478134320 - href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/f8043f85-6a17-419e-bd3c-60b4bfdc2a9a.yaml uri: /reference/f8043f85-6a17-419e-bd3c-60b4bfdc2a9a report_identifier: nca3 statement: 'Timing of critical biological events, such as spring bud burst, emergence from overwintering, and the start of migrations, has shifted, leading to important impacts on species and habitats.' type: finding uncertainties: "In addition to the Ecosystems Technical Input13f67e66-80b2-4732-992a-1f4fd1e91d03 many new studies have been conducted since the previous National Climate Assessment,e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a contributing to our understanding of the impacts of climate change on phenological events. Many studies, in many areas, have shown significant changes in phenology, including spring bud burst, emergence from overwintering, and migration shifts.\r\nA key uncertainty is “phase effects” where organisms are so out of phase with their natural phenology that outbreaks of pests occur, species emerge and cannot find food, or pollination is disrupted. This will vary with specific species and is therefore very difficult to predict.03297bb4-3833-4606-ae88-a166d29b7288,b0ab019c-3ea7-4e75-986c-2cc74541c187,37f4c175-f826-4106-8f9e-1661f51a470c\r\n" uri: /report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/critical-biological-events-shift url: ~