Projected Sea Level Rise and Flooding by 2050

Figure 25.3

This figure appears in chapter 25 of the Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment report.

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/coasts/graphics/projected-sea-level-rise-and-flooding-2050

The amount of sea level rise (SLR) by 2050 will vary along different stretches of the U.S. coastline and under different SLR scenarios, mostly due to land subsidence or uplift (Ch.2: Our Changing Climate).d8089822-678e-4834-a1ec-0dca1da35314 The panels show feet of sea level above 1992 levels at different tide gauge stations based on a) an 8 inch SLR and b) a 1.24 foot SLR by 2050. The flood level that has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year (“return level”) is similarly projected to differ by region as a result of varying storm surge risk. Panel c) shows return levels for a 1.05 foot SLR above mean high tide by 2050. Finally, panel d) shows how a 1.05 foot SLR by 2050 could cause the level of flooding that occurs during today’s 100-year storm to occur more frequently by mid-century, in some regions as often as once a decade or even annually. (Figure source: replicated Tebaldi et al. 2012be9c98a9-915f-4d78-80b9-239b70f93ae2 analysis with NCA sea level rise scenariosd8089822-678e-4834-a1ec-0dca1da35314 for panels a) and b); data/ensemble SLR projections used for panels c) and d) from Tebaldi et al. 2012be9c98a9-915f-4d78-80b9-239b70f93ae2; all estimates include the effect of land subsidence).

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References :

• Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts (be9c98a9)
• Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment. NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO-1 (d8089822)