--- attributes: ~ caption: 'Two families of scenarios are commonly used for future climate projections: the 2000 Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES, left) and the 2010 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, right). The SRES scenarios are named by family (A1, A2, B1, and B2), where each family is designed around a set of consistent assumptions: for example, a world that is more integrated or more divided. In contrast, the RCP scenarios are simply numbered according to the change in radiative forcing (from +2.6 to +8.5 watts per square meter) that results by 2100. This figure compares SRES and RCP annual carbon emissions (top), carbon dioxide equivalent levels in the atmosphere (middle), and temperature change that would result from the central estimate (lines) and the likely range (shaded areas) of climate sensitivity (bottom). At the top end of the range, the older SRES scenarios are slightly higher. Comparing carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperature change between the SRES and RCP scenarios, SRES A1fI is similar to RCP 8.5; SRES A1B to RCP 6.0 and SRES B1 to RCP 4.5. The RCP 2.6 scenario is much lower than any SRES scenario because it includes the option of using policies to achieve net negative carbon dioxide emissions before end of century, while SRES scenarios do not. (Data from CMIP3 and CMIP5).' chapter: description: ~ display_name: 'Chapter 33: Appendix 3: Climate Science Supplement' doi: 10.7930/J0KS6PHH identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement number: 33 report_identifier: nca3 sort_key: 330 title: 'Appendix 3: Climate Science Supplement' url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement cited_by: [] contributors: - display_name: 'Scientist : Katharine Hayhoe (Texas Tech University) ' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/contributor/3758.yaml id: 3758 organization: country_code: US display_name: Texas Tech University identifier: texas-tech-university name: Texas Tech University organization_type_identifier: academic type: organization url: http://www.ttu.edu organization_uri: /organization/texas-tech-university person: display_name: Katharine Hayhoe first_name: Katharine id: 1024 last_name: Hayhoe middle_name: ~ orcid: 0000-0003-3625-1402 type: person url: http://www.katharinehayhoe.com/ person_id: 1024 person_uri: /person/1024 role_type_identifier: scientist uri: /contributor/3758 create_dt: 2013-08-16T14:30:00 description: 'Two families of scenarios are commonly used for future climate projections: the 2000 Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES, left) and the 2010 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, right). The SRES scenarios are named by family (A1, A2, B1, and B2), where each family is designed around a set of consistent assumptions: for example, a world that is more integrated or more divided. In contrast, the RCP scenarios are simply numbered according to the change in radiative forcing (from +2.6 to +8.5 watts per square meter) that results by 2100. This figure compares SRES and RCP annual carbon emissions (top), carbon dioxide equivalent levels in the atmosphere (middle), and temperature change that would result from the central estimate (lines) and the likely range (shaded areas) of climate sensitivity (bottom). At the top end of the range, the older SRES scenarios are slightly higher. Comparing carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperature change between the SRES and RCP scenarios, SRES A1fI is similar to RCP 8.5; SRES A1B to RCP 6.0 and SRES B1 to RCP 4.5. The RCP 2.6 scenario is much lower than any SRES scenario because it includes the option of using policies to achieve net negative carbon dioxide emissions before end of century, while SRES scenarios do not. (Data from CMIP3 and CMIP5).' display_name: '33.19: Emissions, Concentrations, and Temperature Projections' files: - display_name: APP_emissions_concentrations_and_temperature_projections_V2.png file: f0/83/a73d0f7633d67891c298aea7d1a4/APP_emissions_concentrations_and_temperature_projections_V2.png href: http://data.globalchange.gov/assets/f0/83/a73d0f7633d67891c298aea7d1a4/APP_emissions_concentrations_and_temperature_projections_V2.png identifier: 8a9d4d80-2ac9-4ebb-bb3d-7ba66fba36af landing_page: ~ location: ~ mime_type: image/png sha1: dc850a78be894a92f6f9c80c9d2f1d4e89697a46 size: 368936 thumbnail: f0/83/a73d0f7633d67891c298aea7d1a4/.thumb-8a9d4d80-2ac9-4ebb-bb3d-7ba66fba36af.png thumbnail_href: http://data.globalchange.gov/assets/f0/83/a73d0f7633d67891c298aea7d1a4/.thumb-8a9d4d80-2ac9-4ebb-bb3d-7ba66fba36af.png type: file uri: /file/8a9d4d80-2ac9-4ebb-bb3d-7ba66fba36af url: http://data.globalchange.gov/assets/f0/83/a73d0f7633d67891c298aea7d1a4/APP_emissions_concentrations_and_temperature_projections_V2.png href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/emissions-concentrations-and-temperature-projections.yaml identifier: emissions-concentrations-and-temperature-projections images: - attributes: ~ create_dt: 2103-08-16T14:30:00 description: ~ identifier: c6de30bc-2924-46f5-bbc5-14f95cf27584 lat_max: 90.00 lat_min: -90.00 lon_max: 180.00 lon_min: -180.00 position: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2100-12-31T23:59:59 time_start: 2000-01-01T00:00:00 title: 'Emissions, Concentrations, and Temperature Projections - RCP Carbon Emissions' url: ~ usage_limits: ~ - attributes: ~ create_dt: 2103-08-16T14:30:00 description: ~ identifier: c930a717-a255-4bfe-b958-6c3737263b17 lat_max: 90.00 lat_min: -90.00 lon_max: 180.00 lon_min: -180.00 position: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2100-12-31T23:59:59 time_start: 2000-01-01T00:00:00 title: 'Emissions, Concentrations, and Temperature Projections - SRES Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations' url: ~ usage_limits: ~ - attributes: ~ create_dt: 2103-08-16T14:30:00 description: ~ identifier: 5d031cdb-2de3-4b74-b4ca-fcdb8d9c1396 lat_max: 90.00 lat_min: -90.00 lon_max: 180.00 lon_min: -180.00 position: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2100-12-31T23:59:59 time_start: 2000-01-01T00:00:00 title: 'Emissions, Concentrations, and Temperature Projections - RCP Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations' url: ~ usage_limits: ~ - attributes: ~ create_dt: 2103-08-16T14:30:00 description: ~ identifier: 4658d4b5-777e-47bb-8e4d-23cc2abe37c8 lat_max: 90.00 lat_min: -90.00 lon_max: 180.00 lon_min: -180.00 position: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2100-12-31T23:59:59 time_start: 2000-01-01T00:00:00 title: 'Emissions, Concentrations, and Temperature Projections - SRES Global Average Temperature Change' url: ~ usage_limits: ~ - attributes: ~ create_dt: 2103-08-16T14:30:00 description: ~ identifier: 5a078a03-28f5-4f7b-8be9-fba3a10c42ae lat_max: 90.00 lat_min: -90.00 lon_max: 180.00 lon_min: -180.00 position: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2100-12-31T23:59:59 time_start: 2000-01-01T00:00:00 title: 'Emissions, Concentrations, and Temperature Projections - RCP Global Average Temperature Change' url: ~ usage_limits: ~ - attributes: ~ create_dt: 2103-08-16T14:30:00 description: ~ identifier: 2c7f54b9-99dc-4e09-95b1-f2244bcdf7ab lat_max: 90.00 lat_min: -90.00 lon_max: 180.00 lon_min: -180.00 position: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2100-12-31T23:59:59 time_start: 2000-01-01T00:00:00 title: 'Emissions, Concentrations, and Temperature Projections - SRES Carbon Emissions' url: ~ usage_limits: ~ kindred_figures: [] lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 19 parents: [] references: [] report: display_name: 'Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment' report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: CMIP3 and CMIP5 submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: 'Emissions, Concentrations, and Temperature Projections' type: figure uri: /report/nca3/chapter/appendix-climate-science-supplement/figure/emissions-concentrations-and-temperature-projections url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/emissions-concentrations-and-temperature usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source.