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reference : Climatic effects of 1950-2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols - Part 1: Aerosol trends and radiative forcing

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Climatic effects of 1950-2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols - Part 1: Aerosol trends and radiative forcing
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract We use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model combined with the GISS general; circulation model to calculate the aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings; from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950–2050 period, based on historical; 5 emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. The aerosol; simulation is evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980–2010 trends of; aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. The radiative forcing; from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We; find that it peaked in 1970–1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 W); 10 of −2.0Wm−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0Wm−2), nitrate; (−0.2Wm−2), organic carbon (−0.2Wm−2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm−2). The; aerosol indirect effect is of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that; the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm−2 direct and 1.0Wm−2 indirect),; mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue; 15 declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already; declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect; of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources may have already been realized by; 2010, however some additional warming is expected through 2020. The small positive; radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm−2 over the eastern US in 2010) sug20; gests that an emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate; benefit.
Author Leibensperger, E. M. L.J. Mickley D.J. Jacob W.T. Chen J.H. Seinfeld A. Nenes P.J. Adams D.G. Streets N. Kumar D. Rind
DOI 10.5194/acp-12-3333-2012
ISSN 1680-7324
Issue 7
Journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Keywords transboundary pollution influences; stratiform cloud microphysics; eastern united-states; art. no. 4407; black-carbon; organic aerosol; tropospheric ozone; model description; droplet formation; sulfur cycle
Language English
Pages 3333-3348
Title Climatic effects of 1950-2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols - Part 1: Aerosol trends and radiative forcing
URL http://atmos-chem-phys.net/12/3333/2012/acp-12-3333-2012.pdf
Volume 12
Year 2012
Bibliographic identifiers
.reference_type 0
_chapter ["Ch. 15: Biogeochemical FINAL","Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]
_record_number 399
_uuid e5093ad6-fff0-48b1-863b-51882837f648