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reference : Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system

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Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
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reftype Journal Article
Abstract The term “tipping point” commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term “tipping element” to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points.
Author Lenton, Timothy M. Held, Hermann Kriegler, Elmar Hall, Jim W. Lucht, Wolfgang Rahmstorf, Stefan Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
DOI 10.1073/pnas.0705414105
Date February 12, 2008
Issue 6
Journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Pages 1786-1793
Title Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
URL http://www.pnas.org/content/105/6/1786.full.pdf+html
Volume 105
Year 2008
Bibliographic identifiers
.reference_type 0
_chapter ["Appendix 4: FAQs FINAL"]
_record_number 4166
_uuid d64a3dbf-d45e-49de-98b9-b4ea32da888f