---
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  .reference_type: 0
  Abstract: 'The rapid retreat and thinning of the Arctic sea ice cover over the past several decades is one of the most striking manifestations of global climate change. Previous research revealed that the observed downward trend in September ice extent exceeded simulated trends from most models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3). We show here that as a group, simulated trends from the models contributing to CMIP5 are more consistent with observations over the satellite era (1979–2011). Trends from most ensemble members and models nevertheless remain smaller than the observed value. Pointing to strong impacts of internal climate variability, 16% of the ensemble member trends over the satellite era are statistically indistinguishable from zero. Results from the CMIP5 models do not appear to have appreciably reduced uncertainty as to when a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean will be realized. '
  Author: "Stroeve, J.C.\rKattsov, V.\rBarrett, A.\rSerreze, M.\rPavlova, T.\rHolland, M.\rMeier, W.N."
  DOI: 10.1029/2012GL052676
  ISSN: 0094-8276
  Issue: 16
  Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
  Pages: L16502
  Title: 'Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations'
  Volume: 39
  Year: 2012
  _chapter: '["Ch. 24: Oceans FINAL","Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]'
  _record_number: 2976
  _uuid: a60d1734-9067-4e1e-9699-d8e998dfa4d3
  reftype: Journal Article
child_publication: /article/10.1029/2012GL052676
description: 'Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations'
display_name: 'Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations'
href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/reference/a60d1734-9067-4e1e-9699-d8e998dfa4d3.yaml
identifier: a60d1734-9067-4e1e-9699-d8e998dfa4d3
publications:
  - /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate
  - /report/nca3/chapter/oceans-marine-resources
  - /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/projected-arctic-sea-ice-decline
  - /report/nca3/chapter/our-changing-climate/finding/ice-loss-by-rising-temperatures
  - /report/nca3
type: reference
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