Projected Increases in Very Large Fires

Figure 4.4

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Stephanie C. Herring

This figure appears in chapter 4 of the The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment report.

Based on 17 climate model simulations for the continental United States using a higher emissions pathway (RCP8.5), the map shows projected percentage increases in weeks with risk of very large fires by mid-century (2041-2070) compared to the recent past (1971-2000). The darkest shades of red indicated that up to a 6-fold increase in risk is projected for parts of the West. This area includes the Great Basin, Northern Rockies, and parts of Northern California. Gray represents areas within the continental United States where there is either no data or insufficient historical observations on very large fires to build robust models. The potential for very large fire events is also expected to increase along the southern coastline and in areas around the Great Lakes. (Figure source: adapted from Barbero et al. 2015 by NOAA)ca5c4b38-9aa8-4edc-9aea-42f1625cc45b

Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source.

This figure was created on September 10, 2015.

The spatial range for this figure is N/A° to N/A° latitude, and N/A° to N/A° longitude.

This figure was derived from webpage Risk of very large fires could increase sixfold by mid-century in the US .

References :

• Climate change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous United States (ca5c4b38)