Scenarios of Future Temperature Rise

Figure 1

Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC
Kenneth Kunkel

This figure appears in chapter appendix-1--technical-support-document of the The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment report.

Projected global average temperature rise for specific emissions pathways (left) and concentration pathways (right) relative to the 1901_1960 average. Shading indicates the range (5thto 95th percentile) of results from a suite of climate models. Projections in 2099 are indicated by the bars to the right of each panel. In all cases, temperatures are expected to rise, although the difference between lower and higher pathways is substantial.

The left panel shows the two main CMIP3 scenarios (SRES) used in this assessment: A2 assumes continued increases in emissions throughout this century, and B1 assumes significant emissions reductions beginning around 2050. The right panel shows the newer CMIP5 scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). CMIP5 includes both lower and higher pathways than CMIP3. The lowest concentration pathway shown here, RCP2.6, assumes immediate and rapid reductions in emissions and would result in about 2.5°F of warming in this century. The highest pathway, RCP8.5, roughly similar to a continuation of the current path of global emissions increases, is projected to lead to more than 8°F warming by 2100, with a high-end possibility of more than 11°F. (Data from CMIP3, CMIP5, and NOAA NCEI). (Figure source: adapted from Melillo et al. 2014)dd5b893d-4462-4bb3-9205-67b532919566

The time range for this figure is January 01, 1900 (00:00 AM) to December 31, 2100 (23:59 PM).

This figure was created on July 02, 2014.

The spatial range for this figure is -90.00° to 90.00° latitude, and -180.00° to 180.00° longitude.

This figure was derived from Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment .

References :

• Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment (dd5b893d)

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