The Southwest produces more than half of the nation’s high-value specialty crops, which are irrigation-dependent and particularly vulnerable to extremes of moisture, cold, and heat. Reduced yields from increasing temperatures and increasing competition for scarce water supplies will displace jobs in some rural communities.

This finding is from chapter 20 of Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment.

Process for developing key messages: A central component of the assessment process was the Southwest Regional Climate assessment workshop that was held August 1-4, 2011, in Denver, CO with more than 80 participants in a series of scoping presentations and workshops. The workshop began the process leading to a foundational Technical Input Report (TIR) report.17ad4429-1321-4e7c-9cd5-3554eb0c3b38 The TIR consists of nearly 800 pages organized into 20 chapters that were assembled by 122 authors representing a wide range of inputs, including governmental agencies, non-governmental organizations, tribes, and other entities. The report findings were described in a town hall meeting at the American Geophysical Union’s annual fall meeting in 2011, and feedback was collected and incorporated into the draft. The chapter author team engaged in multiple technical discussions through more than 15 biweekly teleconferences that permitted a careful review of the foundational TIR17ad4429-1321-4e7c-9cd5-3554eb0c3b38 and of approximately 125 additional technical inputs provided by the public, as well as the other published literature and professional judgment. The chapter author team then met at the University of Southern California on March 27-28, 2012, for expert deliberation of draft key messages by the authors. Each key message was defended before the entire author team prior to the key message being selected for inclusion. These discussions were supported by targeted consultation with additional experts by the lead author of each message, and they were based on criteria that help define “key vulnerabilities, which include magnitude, timing, persistence and reversibility, likelihood and confidence, potential for adaptation, distribution, and importance of the vulnerable system.”3277e83c-e374-4ed5-b0a2-0adadfaf118d

Description of evidence base: Increased competition for scarce water was presented in the first key message and in the foundational Technical Input Report (TIR).17ad4429-1321-4e7c-9cd5-3554eb0c3b38 U.S. temperatures, including those for the Southwest region, have increased and are expected to continue to rise (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 3). Heat waves have become more frequent and intense and droughts are expected to become more intense in the Southwest (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 7). The length of the frost-free season in the Southwest has been increasing, and frost-free season length is projected to increase (Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 4). A regional study966bf116-8d6d-41f2-96be-4b66d3e729db discusses the trends and scenarios in the Southwest for moisture, cold, heat, and their extremes. There is abundant evidence of irrigation dependence and vulnerability of high-value specialty crops to extremes of moisture, cold, and heat, including, prominently, the 2009 National Climate Assessmente251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a and the foundational TIR.17ad4429-1321-4e7c-9cd5-3554eb0c3b38 Southwest agricultural production statistics and irrigation dependence of that production is delineated in the USDA 2007 Census of Agriculturef8d6bd15-52c4-487d-bea5-cc791a4e9790 and the USDA Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey.e2668b41-7c30-4ae3-843a-a9a3b60f1bc3 Reduced Yields. Even under the most conservative emissions scenarios evaluated (the combination of SRES B1emissions scenario with statistically downscaled winter chill projections from the HADCM3 climate model), one studyc620a37e-b020-4b91-94af-a2511bb66898 projected that required winter chill periods will fall below the number of hours that are necessary for many of the nut- and fruit-bearing trees of California, and yields are projected to decline as a result. A second study6230e3f3-fafc-47bb-b3e0-6fc09ff7e0a7 found that California wheat acreage and walnut acreage will decline due to increased temperatures. Drought and extreme weather may have more effect on the market value of fruits and vegetables, as opposed to other crops, because fruits and vegetables have high water content and because consumers expect good visual appearance and flavor.190f2677-f5e4-4015-862e-71e982509814 Extreme daytime and nighttime temperatures have been shown to accelerate crop ripening and maturity, reduce yield of crops such as corn, fruit trees, and vineyards, cause livestock to be stressed, and increase water consumption in agriculture.5b19a296-8813-4bbf-a292-2b555607a74b Irrigation water transfers to urban. Warmer, drier future scenarios portend large transfers of irrigation water to urban areas even though agriculture will need additional water to meet crop demands, affecting local agriculturally-dependent economies.ffbc0968-438e-468e-9f7f-571eea8d1878 In particular areas of the Southwest (most notably lower-central Arizona), a significant reduction in irrigated agriculture is already underway as land conversion occurs near urban centers.35fd4773-0d68-4ff9-a0ae-f0ea166df237 Functioning water markets, which may require legal and institutional changes, can enable such transfers and reduce the social and economic impacts of water shortages to urban areas.4442506b-fbba-41ea-9cef-1eac88ce2049 The economic impacts of climate change on Southwest fruit and nut growers are projected to be substantial and will result in a northward shift in production of these crops, displacing growers and affecting communities.

New information and remaining uncertainties: Competition for water is an uncertainty. The extent to which water transfers take place depends on whether complementary investments in conveyance or storage infrastructure are made. Currently, there are legal and institutional restrictions limiting water transfers across state and local jurisdictions. It is uncertain whether infrastructure investments will be made or whether institutional innovations facilitating transfers will develop. Institutional barriers will be greater if negative third-party effects of transfers are not adequately addressed. Research that would improve the information base to inform future water transfer debates includes: 1) estimates of third party impacts, 2) assessment of institutional mechanisms to reduce those impacts, 3) environmental impacts of water infrastructure projects, and 4) options and costs of mitigating those environmental impacts. Extremes and phenology. A key uncertainty is the timing of extreme events during the phenological stage of the plant or the growth cycle of the animal. For example, plants are more sensitive to extreme high temperatures and drought during the pollination stage compared to vegetative growth stages. Genetic improvement potential. Crop and livestock reduction studies by necessity depend on assumptions about adaptive actions by farmers and ranchers. However, agriculture has proven to be highly adaptive in the past. A particularly high uncertainty is the ability of conventional breeding and biotechnology to keep pace with the crop plant and animal genetic improvements needed for adaptation to climate-induced biotic and abiotic stresses.

Assessment of confidence based on evidence: Although evidence includes studies of observed climate and weather impacts on agriculture, projections of future changes using climate and crop yield models and econometric models show varying results depending on the choice of crop and assumptions regarding water availability. For example, projections of 2050 California crop yields show reductions in field crop yields, based on assumptions of a 21% decline in agricultural water use, shifts away from water-intensive crops to high-value specialty crops, and development of a more economical means of transferring water from northern to southern California.4442506b-fbba-41ea-9cef-1eac88ce2049 Other studies, using projections of a dry, warmer future for California, and an assumption that water will flow from lower- to higher-valued uses (such as urban water use), generated a 15% decrease in irrigated acreage and a shift from lower- to higher-valued crops.1001c025-916b-4781-8796-78c4399d691b Because net reductions in the costs of water shortages depend on multiple institutional responses, it is difficult as yet to locate a best estimate of water transfers between zero and the upper bound. Water scarcity may also be a function of tradeoffs between economic returns from agricultural production and returns for selling off property or selling water to urban areas (for example, Imperial Valley transfers to San Diego). Given the evidence base and remaining uncertainties, confidence is high in this key message.

References :

• Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment (4442506b)
• Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in California Agriculture. A White Paper from the California Energy Commission’s California Climate Change Center (PIER Program). Publication number: CEC-500-2012-031 (6230e3f3)
• United States Summary and State Data. In 2007 Census of Agriculture, Vol. 1, Geographic Area Series, Part 51. AC-07-A-51. (f8d6bd15)
• Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for the U.S. National Climate Assessment: Part 5. Climate of the Midwest U.S. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 142-5 (966bf116)
• Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey (2008). In 2007 Census of Agriculture, Vol. 3, Special Studies, Part 1. AC-07-SS-1 (e2668b41)
• Quantification Task, a Description of Agriculture Production and Water Transfers in the Colorado River Basin: A Report to the CRB Water Sharing Working Group and the Walton Family Foundation (35fd4773)
• Climate Change Affects Winter Chill for Temperate Fruit and Nut Trees (c620a37e)
• Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States (17ad4429)
• Climate Warming and Water Management Adaptation for California (1001c025)
• SAP 4.3. The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity. (190f2677)
• Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (e251f590)
• Economic impacts of climate-related changes to California agriculture (ffbc0968)
• Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat (5b19a296)
• Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (3277e83c)