Projected Arctic Sea Ice Decline

Figure 2.29

This figure appears in chapter 2 of the Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment report.

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/melting-ice/graphics/projected-arctic-sea-ice-decline

Model simulations of Arctic sea ice extent for September (1900-2100) based on observed concentrations of heat-trapping gases and particles (through 2005) and four scenarios. Colored lines for RCP scenarios are model averages (CMIP5) and lighter shades of the line colors denote ranges among models for each scenario. Dotted gray line and gray shading denotes average and range of the historical simulations through 2005. The thick black line shows observed data for 1953-2012. These newer model (CMIP5) simulations project more rapid sea ice loss compared to the previous generation of models (CMIP3) under similar forcing scenarios, although the simulated September ice losses under all scenarios still lag the observed loss of the past decade. Extrapolation of the present observed trend suggests an essentially ice-free Arctic in summer before mid-century.095ba621-feea-4f7f-8b98-890e5bee679f The Arctic is considered essentially ice-free when the areal extent of ice is less than one million square kilometers. (Figure source: adapted from Stroeve et al. 2012a60d1734-9067-4e1e-9699-d8e998dfa4d3).

When citing this figure, please reference adapted from Stroeve et al. 2012a60d1734-9067-4e1e-9699-d8e998dfa4d3.

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This figure was created on October 21, 2013.

This figure was derived from dataset World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble using the activity nca3-projected-arctic-sea-ice-decline-activity-1. (Sea-ice extent projections for scenarios RCP 8.6, RCP 6.0, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6)
This figure was derived from Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations using the activity nca3-projected-arctic-sea-ice-decline-activity-1.
This figure was derived from dataset Sea Ice Index using the activity nca3-projected-arctic-sea-ice-decline-activity-1.
This figure was derived from dataset using the activity nca3-projected-arctic-sea-ice-decline-activity-1.

References :

• Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations (a60d1734)
• When will the summer Arctic be nearly sea ice free? (095ba621)

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