--- - attributes: ~ caption: 'This figure shows the projected increase in deaths due to warming in the summer months (hot season, April–September), the projected decrease in deaths due to warming in the winter months (cold season, October–March), and the projected net change in deaths compared to a 1990 baseline period for the 209 U.S. cities examined, using the GFDL–CM3 and MIROC5 climate models (see Ch. 2: Temperature-Related Deaths and Illness). (Figure source: adapted from Schwartz et al. 2015)e805bfdc-c4c2-43a0-b2e5-5a66945c74e4' chapter: display_name: Executive Summary chapter_identifier: executive-summary create_dt: 2014-10-31T12:00:00 description: 'This figure shows the projected increase in deaths due to warming in the summer months (hot season, April–September), the projected decrease in deaths due to warming in the winter months (cold season, October–March), and the projected net change in deaths compared to a 1990 baseline period for the 209 U.S. cities examined, using the GFDL–CM3 and MIROC5 climate models (see Ch. 2: Temperature-Related Deaths and Illness). (Figure source: adapted from Schwartz et al. 2015)e805bfdc-c4c2-43a0-b2e5-5a66945c74e4' display_name: '3: Projected Changes in Deaths in U.S Cities by Season' identifier: es-projected-changes-in-deaths-in-us-cities-by-season lat_max: 49.38 lat_min: 24.50 lon_max: -66.95 lon_min: -124.80 ordinal: 3 report: display_name: 'The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment' report_identifier: usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2100-12-31T23:59:59 time_start: 2030-01-01T00:00:00 title: Projected Changes in Deaths in U.S Cities by Season type: figure uri: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/executive-summary/figure/es-projected-changes-in-deaths-in-us-cities-by-season url: ~ usage_limits: ~ - attributes: ~ caption: 'This figure shows the relationship between high temperatures and deaths observed during the 1995 Chicago heat wave. The large spike in deaths in mid-July of 1995 (red line) is much higher than the average number of deaths during that time of year (orange line), as well as the death rate before and after the heat wave. This increase in the rate of deaths occurred during and after the heat wave, as shown here by temperatures exceeding 100°F during the day (green line). Humidity and high nighttime temperatures were also key contributing factors to this increase in deaths.4f9edf45-db7c-4e87-b1ab-af8856388760 The number of excess deaths has been estimated to be about 700 based on statistical methods, but only 465 deaths in Cook County were classified as “heat-related” on death certificates during this same period,e4b23502-00d8-4f34-8da8-3bb61ece107d demonstrating the tendency of direct attribution to undercount total heat-related deaths. (Figure source: EPA 2014)bfc00315-ccea-4e7c-8a05-2650a07e4252' chapter: display_name: 'Chapter 2: Temperature-Related Death and Illness' chapter_identifier: temperature-related-death-and-illness create_dt: 2014-05-01T12:00:00 description: 'This figure shows the relationship between high temperatures and deaths observed during the 1995 Chicago heat wave. The large spike in deaths in mid-July of 1995 (red line) is much higher than the average number of deaths during that time of year (orange line), as well as the death rate before and after the heat wave. This increase in the rate of deaths occurred during and after the heat wave, as shown here by temperatures exceeding 100°F during the day (green line). Humidity and high nighttime temperatures were also key contributing factors to this increase in deaths.4f9edf45-db7c-4e87-b1ab-af8856388760 The number of excess deaths has been estimated to be about 700 based on statistical methods, but only 465 deaths in Cook County were classified as “heat-related” on death certificates during this same period,e4b23502-00d8-4f34-8da8-3bb61ece107d demonstrating the tendency of direct attribution to undercount total heat-related deaths. (Figure source: EPA 2014)bfc00315-ccea-4e7c-8a05-2650a07e4252' display_name: '2.2: Heat-Related Deaths During the 1995 Chicago Heat Wave' identifier: heat-related-deaths-during-the-1995-chicago-heat-wave lat_max: 42.2 lat_min: 41.5 lon_max: 88.3 lon_min: 87.1 ordinal: 2 report: display_name: 'The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment' report_identifier: usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 1995-08-30T23:59:59 time_start: 1995-06-01T00:00:00 title: Heat-Related Deaths During the 1995 Chicago Heat Wave type: figure uri: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/temperature-related-death-and-illness/figure/heat-related-deaths-during-the-1995-chicago-heat-wave url: ~ usage_limits: ~ - attributes: ~ caption: 'This figure shows the projected increase in deaths due to warming in the summer months (hot season, April–September), the projected decrease in deaths due to warming in the winter months (cold season, October–March), and the projected net change in deaths for the 209 U.S. cities examined. These results compare projected deaths for future reporting years to results for the year 1990 while holding the population constant at 2010 levels and without any quantitative adjustment for potential future adaptation, so that temperature–death relationships observed in the last decade of the available data (1997–2006) are assumed to remain unchanged in projections over the 21st century. With these assumptions, the figure shows an increasing health benefit in terms of reduced deaths during the cold season (October–March) over the 21st century from warming temperatures, while deaths during the hot season (April–September) increase. Overall, the additional deaths from the warming in the hot season exceed the reduction in deaths during the cold season, resulting in a net increase in deaths attributable to temperature over time as a result of climate change. The baseline and future reporting years are based on 30-year periods where possible, with the exception of 2100: 1990 (1976–2005), 2030 (2016–2045), 2050 (2036–2065), and 2100 (2086–2100). (Figure source: adapted from Schwartz et al. 2015)e805bfdc-c4c2-43a0-b2e5-5a66945c74e4' chapter: display_name: 'Chapter 2: Temperature-Related Death and Illness' chapter_identifier: temperature-related-death-and-illness create_dt: 2014-10-31T12:00:00 description: 'This figure shows the projected increase in deaths due to warming in the summer months (hot season, April–September), the projected decrease in deaths due to warming in the winter months (cold season, October–March), and the projected net change in deaths for the 209 U.S. cities examined. These results compare projected deaths for future reporting years to results for the year 1990 while holding the population constant at 2010 levels and without any quantitative adjustment for potential future adaptation, so that temperature–death relationships observed in the last decade of the available data (1997–2006) are assumed to remain unchanged in projections over the 21st century. With these assumptions, the figure shows an increasing health benefit in terms of reduced deaths during the cold season (October–March) over the 21st century from warming temperatures, while deaths during the hot season (April–September) increase. Overall, the additional deaths from the warming in the hot season exceed the reduction in deaths during the cold season, resulting in a net increase in deaths attributable to temperature over time as a result of climate change. The baseline and future reporting years are based on 30-year periods where possible, with the exception of 2100: 1990 (1976–2005), 2030 (2016–2045), 2050 (2036–2065), and 2100 (2086–2100). (Figure source: adapted from Schwartz et al. 2015)e805bfdc-c4c2-43a0-b2e5-5a66945c74e4' display_name: '2.4: Projected Changes in Deaths in U.S. Cities by Season' identifier: projected-changes-in-deaths-in-us-cities-by-season lat_max: 49.38 lat_min: 24.50 lon_max: -66.95 lon_min: -124.80 ordinal: 4 report: display_name: 'The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment' report_identifier: usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2100-12-31T23:59:59 time_start: 2030-01-01T00:00:00 title: Projected Changes in Deaths in U.S. Cities by Season type: figure uri: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/temperature-related-death-and-illness/figure/projected-changes-in-deaths-in-us-cities-by-season url: ~ usage_limits: ~ - attributes: ~ caption: 'This figure shows the projected decrease in death rates due to warming in colder months (October–March, top left), the projected increase in death rates due to warming in the warmer months (April–September, top right), and the projected net change in death rates (combined map, bottom), comparing results for 2100 to those for a 1990 baseline period in 209 U.S. cities. These results are from one of the two climate models (GFDL–CM3 scenario RCP6.0) studied in Schwartz et al. (2015). In the study, mortality data for a city is based on county-level records, so the borders presented reflect counties corresponding to the study cities. Geographic variation in the death rates are due to a combination of differences in the amount of projected warming and variation in the relationship between deaths and temperatures derived from the historical health and temperature data. These results are based on holding the 2010 population constant in the analyses, with no explicit assumptions or adjustment for potential future adaptation. Therefore, these results reflect only the effect of the anticipated change in climate over time. (Figure source: Schwartz et al. 2015)e805bfdc-c4c2-43a0-b2e5-5a66945c74e4' chapter: display_name: 'Chapter 2: Temperature-Related Death and Illness' chapter_identifier: temperature-related-death-and-illness create_dt: 2014-10-31T12:00:00 description: 'This figure shows the projected decrease in death rates due to warming in colder months (October–March, top left), the projected increase in death rates due to warming in the warmer months (April–September, top right), and the projected net change in death rates (combined map, bottom), comparing results for 2100 to those for a 1990 baseline period in 209 U.S. cities. These results are from one of the two climate models (GFDL–CM3 scenario RCP6.0) studied in Schwartz et al. (2015). In the study, mortality data for a city is based on county-level records, so the borders presented reflect counties corresponding to the study cities. Geographic variation in the death rates are due to a combination of differences in the amount of projected warming and variation in the relationship between deaths and temperatures derived from the historical health and temperature data. These results are based on holding the 2010 population constant in the analyses, with no explicit assumptions or adjustment for potential future adaptation. Therefore, these results reflect only the effect of the anticipated change in climate over time. (Figure source: Schwartz et al. 2015)e805bfdc-c4c2-43a0-b2e5-5a66945c74e4' display_name: '2.3: Projected Changes in Temperature-Related Death Rates' identifier: projected-changes-in-temperature-related-death-rates lat_max: 49.38 lat_min: 24.50 lon_max: -66.95 lon_min: -124.80 ordinal: 3 report: display_name: 'The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment' report_identifier: usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2100-12-31T23:59:59 time_start: 1975-01-01T00:00:00 title: Projected Changes in Temperature-Related Death Rates type: figure uri: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/temperature-related-death-and-illness/figure/projected-changes-in-temperature-related-death-rates url: ~ usage_limits: ~