--- articles: - contributors: - display_name: 'Author : John Jacobs (National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science) ' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/contributor/19061.yaml id: 19061 organization: country_code: US display_name: National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science identifier: national-centers-coastal-ocean-science name: National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science organization_type_identifier: federal type: organization url: http://coastalscience.noaa.gov/ organization_uri: /organization/national-centers-coastal-ocean-science person: display_name: John Jacobs first_name: John id: 9888 last_name: Jacobs middle_name: ~ orcid: 0000-0001-9748-7828 type: person url: https://ams.confex.com/ams/5EDUSCIFORUM/webprogram/Person101629.html person_id: 9888 person_uri: /person/9888 role_type_identifier: author uri: /contributor/19061 - display_name: 'Author : Stephanie Moore (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) ' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/contributor/19062.yaml id: 19062 organization: country_code: US display_name: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research identifier: university-corporation-atmospheric-research name: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research organization_type_identifier: consortium type: organization url: http://www2.ucar.edu/ organization_uri: /organization/university-corporation-atmospheric-research person: display_name: Stephanie Moore first_name: Stephanie id: 9889 last_name: Moore middle_name: ~ orcid: 0000-0003-3319-5070 type: person url: http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/contact/display_staffprofile.cfm?staffid=2225 person_id: 9889 person_uri: /person/9889 role_type_identifier: author uri: /contributor/19062 - display_name: 'Author : Stephanie Moore (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Northwest Fisheries Science Center) ' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/contributor/14733.yaml id: 14733 organization: country_code: US display_name: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Northwest Fisheries Science Center identifier: national-oceanic-atmospheric-administration-northwest-fisheries-science-center name: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Northwest Fisheries Science Center organization_type_identifier: federal type: organization url: http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov organization_uri: /organization/national-oceanic-atmospheric-administration-northwest-fisheries-science-center person: display_name: Stephanie Moore first_name: Stephanie id: 9889 last_name: Moore middle_name: ~ orcid: 0000-0003-3319-5070 type: person url: http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/contact/display_staffprofile.cfm?staffid=2225 person_id: 9889 person_uri: /person/9889 role_type_identifier: author uri: /contributor/14733 - display_name: 'Author : Kenneth Kunkel (Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC) ' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/contributor/2981.yaml id: 2981 organization: country_code: US display_name: 'Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC' identifier: cooperative-institute-climate-satellites-nc name: 'Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC' organization_type_identifier: academic type: organization url: http://www.cicsnc.org/ organization_uri: /organization/cooperative-institute-climate-satellites-nc person: display_name: Kenneth Kunkel first_name: Kenneth id: 1025 last_name: Kunkel middle_name: E. orcid: 0000-0001-6667-7047 type: person url: http://cicsnc.org/people/kenneth-kunkel/ person_id: 1025 person_uri: /person/1025 role_type_identifier: author uri: /contributor/2981 - display_name: 'Author : Liqiang Sun (Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC) ' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/contributor/2983.yaml id: 2983 organization: country_code: US display_name: 'Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC' identifier: cooperative-institute-climate-satellites-nc name: 'Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC' organization_type_identifier: academic type: organization url: http://www.cicsnc.org/ organization_uri: /organization/cooperative-institute-climate-satellites-nc person: display_name: Liqiang Sun first_name: Liqiang id: 1801 last_name: Sun middle_name: ~ orcid: ~ type: person url: http://www.cicsnc.org/people/liqiang-sun/ person_id: 1801 person_uri: /person/1801 role_type_identifier: author uri: /contributor/2983 - display_name: 'Data Producer : World Climate Research Programme ' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/contributor/20238.yaml id: 20238 organization: country_code: ~ display_name: World Climate Research Programme identifier: world-climate-research-programme name: World Climate Research Programme organization_type_identifier: international type: organization url: http://wcrp-climate.org/ organization_uri: /organization/world-climate-research-programme person: {} person_id: ~ person_uri: ~ role_type_identifier: data_producer uri: /contributor/20238 - display_name: 'Funding Agency : National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/contributor/3130.yaml id: 3130 organization: country_code: US display_name: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration identifier: national-oceanic-atmospheric-administration name: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration organization_type_identifier: federal type: organization url: http://www.noaa.gov/ organization_uri: /organization/national-oceanic-atmospheric-administration person: {} person_id: ~ person_uri: ~ role_type_identifier: funding_agency uri: /contributor/3130 description: 'Climate change is expected to alter coastal ecosystems in ways which may have predictable consequences for the seasonality and geographical distribution of human pathogens and harmful algae. Here we demonstrate relatively simple approaches for evaluating the risk of occurrence of pathogenic bacteria in the genus Vibrio and outbreaks of toxin-producing harmful algae in the genus Alexandrium, with estimates of uncertainty, in U.S. coastal waters under future climate change scenarios through the end of the 21st century. One approach forces empirical models of growth, abundance and the probability of occurrence of the pathogens and algae at specific locations in the Chesapeake Bay and Puget Sound with ensembles of statistically downscaled climate model projections to produce first order assessments of changes in seasonality. In all of the case studies examined, the seasonal window of occurrence for Vibrio andAlexandrium broadened, indicating longer annual periods of time when there is increased risk for outbreaks. A second approach uses climate model projections coupled with GIS to identify the potential for geographic range shifts for Vibrio spp. in the coastal waters of Alaska. These two approaches could be applied to other coastal pathogens that have climate sensitive drivers to investigate potential changes to the risk of outbreaks in both time (seasonality) and space (geographical distribution) under future climate change scenarios. ' display_name: A framework for examining climate-driven changes to the seasonality and geographical range of coastal pathogens and harmful algae doi: 10.1016/j.crm.2015.03.002 files: [] href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/article/10.1016/j.crm.2015.03.002.yaml identifier: 10.1016/j.crm.2015.03.002 journal_identifier: climate-risk-management journal_pages: 16-27 journal_vol: 8 notes: ~ parents: [] references: [] title: A framework for examining climate-driven changes to the seasonality and geographical range of coastal pathogens and harmful algae type: article uri: /article/10.1016/j.crm.2015.03.002 url: ~ year: 2015 cited_by: [] contributors: [] country: ~ description: ~ display_name: Climate Risk Management files: - display_name: 729994.gif file: /cover_img/729994.gif href: http://cdn.elsevier.com/cover_img/729994.gif identifier: be152494-db4e-478c-9b2f-e7ec041a2596 landing_page: ~ location: http://cdn.elsevier.com mime_type: image/gif sha1: bb84e5ef3cd9f20ce0cd1f8577f18870f162b3b7 size: 10193 thumbnail: 15/ef/a4a66bcbe992863ee3dcbf31d9bf/.thumb-be152494-db4e-478c-9b2f-e7ec041a2596.png thumbnail_href: http://data.globalchange.gov/assets/15/ef/a4a66bcbe992863ee3dcbf31d9bf/.thumb-be152494-db4e-478c-9b2f-e7ec041a2596.png type: file uri: /file/be152494-db4e-478c-9b2f-e7ec041a2596 url: http://cdn.elsevier.com/cover_img/729994.gif href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/journal/climate-risk-management.yaml identifier: climate-risk-management notes: ~ online_issn: ~ parents: [] print_issn: 2212-0963 publisher: Elsevier BV references: [] title: Climate Risk Management type: journal uri: /journal/climate-risk-management url: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/climate-risk-management/