--- attributes: ~ cited_by: [] contributors: - display_name: 'Scientist : Katharine Hayhoe (Texas Tech University) ' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/contributor/3758.yaml id: 3758 organization: country_code: US display_name: Texas Tech University identifier: texas-tech-university name: Texas Tech University organization_type_identifier: academic type: organization url: http://www.ttu.edu organization_uri: /organization/texas-tech-university person: display_name: Katharine Hayhoe first_name: Katharine id: 1024 last_name: Hayhoe middle_name: ~ orcid: 0000-0003-3625-1402 type: person url: http://www.katharinehayhoe.com/ person_id: 1024 person_uri: /person/1024 role_type_identifier: scientist uri: /contributor/3758 create_dt: 2103-08-16T14:30:00 description: ~ display_name: 5a078a03-28f5-4f7b-8be9-fba3a10c42ae figures: - attributes: ~ caption: 'Two families of scenarios are commonly used for future climate projections: the 2000 Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES, left) and the 2010 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, right). The SRES scenarios are named by family (A1, A2, B1, and B2), where each family is designed around a set of consistent assumptions: for example, a world that is more integrated or more divided. In contrast, the RCP scenarios are simply numbered according to the change in radiative forcing (from +2.6 to +8.5 watts per square meter) that results by 2100. This figure compares SRES and RCP annual carbon emissions (top), carbon dioxide equivalent levels in the atmosphere (middle), and temperature change that would result from the central estimate (lines) and the likely range (shaded areas) of climate sensitivity (bottom). At the top end of the range, the older SRES scenarios are slightly higher. Comparing carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperature change between the SRES and RCP scenarios, SRES A1fI is similar to RCP 8.5; SRES A1B to RCP 6.0 and SRES B1 to RCP 4.5. The RCP 2.6 scenario is much lower than any SRES scenario because it includes the option of using policies to achieve net negative carbon dioxide emissions before end of century, while SRES scenarios do not. (Data from CMIP3 and CMIP5).' chapter_identifier: appendix-climate-science-supplement create_dt: 2013-08-16T14:30:00 identifier: emissions-concentrations-and-temperature-projections lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 19 report_identifier: nca3 source_citation: CMIP3 and CMIP5 submission_dt: ~ time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: 'Emissions, Concentrations, and Temperature Projections' url: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/appendices/climate-science-supplement/graphics/emissions-concentrations-and-temperature usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. files: - display_name: app-fig19_rcp-bottom.png file: d4/c2/7bbe887970ba994ecf50ef1c079e/app-fig19_rcp-bottom.png href: http://data.globalchange.gov/assets/d4/c2/7bbe887970ba994ecf50ef1c079e/app-fig19_rcp-bottom.png identifier: 1fe24210-fbd8-4e6e-a460-2b0eac51084d landing_page: ~ location: ~ mime_type: image/png sha1: 15b6b928621eb972c89815bcc04bf7647dcaf4ba size: 40999 thumbnail: d4/c2/7bbe887970ba994ecf50ef1c079e/.thumb-1fe24210-fbd8-4e6e-a460-2b0eac51084d.png thumbnail_href: http://data.globalchange.gov/assets/d4/c2/7bbe887970ba994ecf50ef1c079e/.thumb-1fe24210-fbd8-4e6e-a460-2b0eac51084d.png type: file uri: /file/1fe24210-fbd8-4e6e-a460-2b0eac51084d url: http://data.globalchange.gov/assets/d4/c2/7bbe887970ba994ecf50ef1c079e/app-fig19_rcp-bottom.png href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/image/5a078a03-28f5-4f7b-8be9-fba3a10c42ae.yaml identifier: 5a078a03-28f5-4f7b-8be9-fba3a10c42ae lat_max: 90.00 lat_min: -90.00 lon_max: 180.00 lon_min: -180.00 parents: [] position: ~ references: [] submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2100-12-31T23:59:59 time_start: 2000-01-01T00:00:00 title: 'Emissions, Concentrations, and Temperature Projections - RCP Global Average Temperature Change' type: image uri: /image/5a078a03-28f5-4f7b-8be9-fba3a10c42ae url: ~ usage_limits: ~