--- attributes: ~ cited_by: [] contributors: [] create_dt: 2014-10-31T12:34:00 description: ~ display_name: 15f2c181-976d-408c-8065-9742809d954e figures: - attributes: ~ caption: 'Projected changes in average daily maximum temperature (degrees Fahrenheit), summer average maximum daily 8-hour ozone (parts per billion), and excess ozone-related deaths (incidences per year by county) in the year 2030 relative to the year 2000, following two global climate models and two greenhouse gas concentration pathways, known as Representative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs (see van Vuuren et al. 201144124472-4a1d-4fbd-b86e-91cca108b938). Each year (2000 and 2030) is represented by 11 years of modeled data for May through September, the traditional ozone season in the United States.

The top panels are based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Department of Energy (NCAR/DOE) Community Earth System Model (CESM) following RCP8.5 (a higher greenhouse gas concentration pathway), and the bottom panels are based on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE2-R following RCP6.0 (a moderate greenhouse gas concentration pathway).

The leftmost panels are based on dynamically downscaled regional climate using the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the center panels are based on air quality simulations from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, and the rightmost panels are based on the U.S. EPA Environmental Benefits and Mapping Program (BenMAP).

Fann et al. 2015 reports a range of mortality outcomes based on different methods of computing the mortality effects of ozone changes—the changes in the number of deaths shown in the rightmost panels were computed using the method described in Bell et al. 2004.54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de,a02f25a1-29c1-4564-9b41-7d974e8ce6b5 (Figure source: adapted from Fann et al. 2015)54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de' chapter_identifier: air-quality-impacts create_dt: 2014-10-31T12:34:00 identifier: projected-change-in-temperature-ozone-and-ozone-related-premature-deaths-in-2030 lat_max: 49.38 lat_min: 24.50 lon_max: -66.95 lon_min: -124.80 ordinal: 2 report_identifier: usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2030-12-31T23:59:59 time_start: 2030-01-01T00:00:00 title: 'Projected Change in Temperature, Ozone, and Ozone-Related Premature Deaths in 2030' url: ~ usage_limits: Copyright protected. Obtain permission from the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'The air quality response to climate change can vary substantially by region across scenarios. Two downscaled global climate model projections using two greenhouse gas concentration pathways estimate increases in average daily maximum temperatures of 1.8°F to 7.2°F (1°C to 4°C) and increases of 1 to 5 parts per billion (ppb) in daily 8-hour maximum ozone in the year 2030 relative to the year 2000 throughout the continental United States. Unless reductions in ozone precursor emissions offset the influence of climate change, this “climate penalty” of increased ozone concentrations due to climate change would result in tens to thousands of additional ozone-related premature deaths per year, shown here as incidences per year by county (see Ch. 3: Air Quality Impacts). (Figure source: adapted from Fann et al. 2015)54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de' chapter_identifier: executive-summary create_dt: 2014-10-31T12:34:00 identifier: es-projected-change-in-temperature-ozone-and-ozone-related-premature-deaths-in-2030 lat_max: 49.38 lat_min: 24.50 lon_max: -66.95 lon_min: -124.80 ordinal: 4 report_identifier: usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2030-12-31T23:59:59 time_start: 2030-01-01T00:00:00 title: 'Projected Change in Temperature, Ozone, and Ozone-Related Premature Deaths in 2030' url: ~ usage_limits: ~ files: - display_name: 3-2_c.png file: 7e/f6/ea6dd9db884c41585a980025f51a/3-2_c.png href: http://data.globalchange.gov/assets/7e/f6/ea6dd9db884c41585a980025f51a/3-2_c.png identifier: b2594042-703f-4987-b0cd-e42fb03e155b landing_page: ~ location: ~ mime_type: image/png sha1: 774f82ad44cef1866603dd2284668eac367f11f9 size: 179480 thumbnail: 7e/f6/ea6dd9db884c41585a980025f51a/.thumb-b2594042-703f-4987-b0cd-e42fb03e155b.png thumbnail_href: http://data.globalchange.gov/assets/7e/f6/ea6dd9db884c41585a980025f51a/.thumb-b2594042-703f-4987-b0cd-e42fb03e155b.png type: file uri: /file/b2594042-703f-4987-b0cd-e42fb03e155b url: http://data.globalchange.gov/assets/7e/f6/ea6dd9db884c41585a980025f51a/3-2_c.png href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/image/15f2c181-976d-408c-8065-9742809d954e.yaml identifier: 15f2c181-976d-408c-8065-9742809d954e lat_max: 49.38 lat_min: 24.50 lon_max: -66.95 lon_min: -124.80 parents: [] position: ~ references: [] submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2030-12-31T23:59:59 time_start: 2030-01-01T00:00:00 title: '(Top Right) Projected Change in Temperature, Ozone and Ozone-Related Premature Deaths in 2030 Attributable to Two Climate Scenarios: CESM/RCP8.5 Annual Ozone-Related Premature Deaths' type: image uri: /image/15f2c181-976d-408c-8065-9742809d954e url: ~ usage_limits: ~