---
cited_by:
  - publication: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/water-related-illnesses
    publication_type: chapter
    reference: /reference/7a4a25c9-22a4-4189-b763-4711f495aea7
  - publication: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016
    publication_type: report
    reference: /reference/7a4a25c9-22a4-4189-b763-4711f495aea7
contributors: []
description: 'The effect that climate change and variability will have on waterborne bacteria is a topic of increasing concern for coastal ecosystems, including the Chesapeake Bay. Surface water temperature trends in the Bay indicate a warming pattern of roughly 0.3-0.4degC per decade over the past 30 years. It is unclear what impact future warming will have on pathogens currently found in the Bay, including Vibrio spp. Using historical environmental data, combined with three different statistical models of Vibrio vulnificus probability, we explore the relationship between environmental change and predicted Vibrio vulnificus presence in the upper Chesapeake Bay. We find that the predicted response of V. vulnificus probability to high temperatures in the Bay differs systematically between models of differing structure. As existing publicly available datasets are inadequate to determine which model structure is most appropriate, the impact of climatic change on the probability of V. vulnificus presence in the Chesapeake Bay remains uncertain. This result points to the challenge of characterizing climate sensitivity of ecological systems in which data are sparse and only statistical models of ecological sensitivity exist. '
display_name: 'Uncertainty in model predictions of Vibrio vulnificus response to climate variability and change: A Chesapeake Bay case study'
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0098256
files: []
href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/article/10.1371/journal.pone.0098256.yaml
identifier: 10.1371/journal.pone.0098256
journal_identifier: plos-one
journal_pages: e98256
journal_vol: 9
notes: ~
parents:
  - display_name: "Chapter 6: Climate Impacts on Water-Related Illnesses (in 'The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment')"
    reference: /reference/7a4a25c9-22a4-4189-b763-4711f495aea7
    relationship: cito:isCitedBy
    uri: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/water-related-illnesses
  - display_name: 'The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment'
    reference: /reference/7a4a25c9-22a4-4189-b763-4711f495aea7
    relationship: cito:isCitedBy
    uri: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016
references: []
title: 'Uncertainty in model predictions of Vibrio vulnificus response to climate variability and change: A Chesapeake Bay case study'
type: article
uri: /article/10.1371/journal.pone.0098256
url: ~
year: 2014