---
cited_by:
  - publication: /report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems
    publication_type: chapter
    reference: /reference/b0ab019c-3ea7-4e75-986c-2cc74541c187
  - publication: /report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/critical-biological-events-shift
    publication_type: finding
    reference: /reference/b0ab019c-3ea7-4e75-986c-2cc74541c187
  - publication: /report/nca3
    publication_type: report
    reference: /reference/b0ab019c-3ea7-4e75-986c-2cc74541c187
  - publication: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/water-related-illnesses
    publication_type: chapter
    reference: /reference/b0ab019c-3ea7-4e75-986c-2cc74541c187
  - publication: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016
    publication_type: report
    reference: /reference/b0ab019c-3ea7-4e75-986c-2cc74541c187
contributors:
  - display_name: 'Author : Camille Parmesan (The University of Texas at Austin Department of Integrative Biology) '
    href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/contributor/14158.yaml
    id: 14158
    organization:
      country_code: US
      display_name: The University of Texas at Austin Department of Integrative Biology
      identifier: university-texas-austin-department-integrative-biology
      name: The University of Texas at Austin Department of Integrative Biology
      organization_type_identifier: academic
      type: organization
      url: https://integrativebio.utexas.edu/
    organization_uri: /organization/university-texas-austin-department-integrative-biology
    person:
      display_name: Camille Parmesan
      first_name: Camille
      id: 2333
      last_name: Parmesan
      middle_name: ~
      orcid: ~
      type: person
      url: https://www.plymouth.ac.uk/staff/camille-parmesan
    person_id: 2333
    person_uri: /person/2333
    role_type_identifier: author
    uri: /contributor/14158
  - display_name: 'Author : Gary Yohe (Wesleyan University Department of Economics) '
    href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/contributor/14157.yaml
    id: 14157
    organization:
      country_code: US
      display_name: Wesleyan University Department of Economics
      identifier: wesleyan-university-department-economics
      name: Wesleyan University Department of Economics
      organization_type_identifier: academic
      type: organization
      url: http://www.wesleyan.edu/econ/
    organization_uri: /organization/wesleyan-university-department-economics
    person:
      display_name: Gary Yohe
      first_name: Gary
      id: 840
      last_name: Yohe
      middle_name: ~
      orcid: ~
      type: person
      url: http://gyohe.faculty.wesleyan.edu/
    person_id: 840
    person_uri: /person/840
    role_type_identifier: author
    uri: /contributor/14157
description: "Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems. "
display_name: A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
doi: 10.1038/nature01286
files: []
href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/article/10.1038/nature01286.yaml
identifier: 10.1038/nature01286
journal_identifier: nature
journal_pages: 37-42
journal_vol: 421
notes: ~
parents:
  - display_name: 'NCA3 Chapter 8: Ecosystems, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem Services'
    reference: /reference/b0ab019c-3ea7-4e75-986c-2cc74541c187
    relationship: cito:isCitedBy
    uri: /report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems
  - display_name: NCA3 Finding 8.4
    reference: /reference/b0ab019c-3ea7-4e75-986c-2cc74541c187
    relationship: cito:isCitedBy
    uri: /report/nca3/chapter/ecosystems/finding/critical-biological-events-shift
  - display_name: 'Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment'
    reference: /reference/b0ab019c-3ea7-4e75-986c-2cc74541c187
    relationship: cito:isCitedBy
    uri: /report/nca3
  - display_name: "Chapter 6: Climate Impacts on Water-Related Illnesses (in 'The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment')"
    reference: /reference/b0ab019c-3ea7-4e75-986c-2cc74541c187
    relationship: cito:isCitedBy
    uri: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/water-related-illnesses
  - display_name: 'The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment'
    reference: /reference/b0ab019c-3ea7-4e75-986c-2cc74541c187
    relationship: cito:isCitedBy
    uri: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016
references: []
title: A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
type: article
uri: /article/10.1038/nature01286
url: ~
year: 2003