Climate change and cryptosporidiosis: A qualitative analysis

2001

Description

The effects of climate change on drinking-waterborne cryptosporidiosis transmission in the United States are analyzed using an influence diagram representation of epidemic development. Results from a systematic qualitative analysis indicate that climate change will have little effect on cryptosporidiosis incidence if the United States continues to be wealthy and maintains its commitment to public health. The major impact will, instead, be the additional costs of adapting to new climate regimes in order to avoid drinking-waterborne disease risk. These costs, for the most part, will be from improved monitoring and treatment of drinking water. The consequences of disaster scenarios are also considered. These, too, suggest that climate change per se will be a poor predictor of waterborne cryptosporidiosis in countries with high standards of living. Rather, the risk of epidemics will depend on the interplay between population, public health investment, infrastructure maintenance, emergency planning/response capabilities, water-treatment technologies, drinking-water regulations, and climate.

Climatic Change volume 50 pages 219-249

DOI : 10.1023/a:1010623831501

Cited by chapter 6, and usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016. (reference: 0002c0e6)