--- cited_by: - publication: /report/nca3/chapter/northwest publication_type: chapter reference: /reference/f8911f98-5481-48f7-bef1-7900ae16f535 - publication: /report/nca3 publication_type: report reference: /reference/f8911f98-5481-48f7-bef1-7900ae16f535 - publication: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/water-related-illnesses publication_type: chapter reference: /reference/f8911f98-5481-48f7-bef1-7900ae16f535 - publication: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016 publication_type: report reference: /reference/f8911f98-5481-48f7-bef1-7900ae16f535 contributors: - display_name: 'Author : Stephanie Moore (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Northwest Fisheries Science Center) ' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/contributor/14733.yaml id: 14733 organization: country_code: US display_name: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Northwest Fisheries Science Center identifier: national-oceanic-atmospheric-administration-northwest-fisheries-science-center name: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Northwest Fisheries Science Center organization_type_identifier: federal type: organization url: http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov organization_uri: /organization/national-oceanic-atmospheric-administration-northwest-fisheries-science-center person: display_name: Stephanie Moore first_name: Stephanie id: 9889 last_name: Moore middle_name: ~ orcid: 0000-0003-3319-5070 type: person url: http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/contact/display_staffprofile.cfm?staffid=2225 person_id: 9889 person_uri: /person/9889 role_type_identifier: author uri: /contributor/14733 - display_name: 'Author : Nathan J. Mantua (University of Washington Climate Impacts Group) ' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/contributor/14734.yaml id: 14734 organization: country_code: US display_name: University of Washington Climate Impacts Group identifier: university-washington-climate-impacts-group name: University of Washington Climate Impacts Group organization_type_identifier: research type: organization url: http://cses.washington.edu/cig/ organization_uri: /organization/university-washington-climate-impacts-group person: display_name: Nathan J. Mantua first_name: Nathan J. id: 4255 last_name: Mantua middle_name: ~ orcid: ~ type: person url: http://jisao.washington.edu/researchers/bios/mantua person_id: 4255 person_uri: /person/4255 role_type_identifier: author uri: /contributor/14734 - display_name: 'Author : Nathan J. Mantua (University of Washington School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences) ' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/contributor/14735.yaml id: 14735 organization: country_code: US display_name: University of Washington School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences identifier: university-washington-school-aquatic-fishery-sciences name: University of Washington School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences organization_type_identifier: academic type: organization url: https://fish.washington.edu organization_uri: /organization/university-washington-school-aquatic-fishery-sciences person: display_name: Nathan J. Mantua first_name: Nathan J. id: 4255 last_name: Mantua middle_name: ~ orcid: ~ type: person url: http://jisao.washington.edu/researchers/bios/mantua person_id: 4255 person_uri: /person/4255 role_type_identifier: author uri: /contributor/14735 - display_name: 'Author : Eric P. Salathé (University of Washington Bothell Science and Technology Program) ' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/contributor/14742.yaml id: 14742 organization: country_code: US display_name: University of Washington Bothell Science and Technology Program identifier: university-washington-bothell-science-technology-program name: University of Washington Bothell Science and Technology Program organization_type_identifier: academic type: organization url: ~ organization_uri: /organization/university-washington-bothell-science-technology-program person: display_name: Eric P. Salathé first_name: Eric P. id: 3356 last_name: Salathé middle_name: ~ orcid: ~ type: person url: http://faculty.washington.edu/salathe/index.html person_id: 3356 person_uri: /person/3356 role_type_identifier: author uri: /contributor/14742 - display_name: 'Author : Eric P. Salathé (University of Washington School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences) ' href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/contributor/14741.yaml id: 14741 organization: country_code: US display_name: University of Washington School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences identifier: university-washington-school-aquatic-fishery-sciences name: University of Washington School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences organization_type_identifier: academic type: organization url: https://fish.washington.edu organization_uri: /organization/university-washington-school-aquatic-fishery-sciences person: display_name: Eric P. Salathé first_name: Eric P. id: 3356 last_name: Salathé middle_name: ~ orcid: ~ type: person url: http://faculty.washington.edu/salathe/index.html person_id: 3356 person_uri: /person/3356 role_type_identifier: author uri: /contributor/14741 description: 'The risk of harmful algal blooms (HABs) of the dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella in Puget Sound, Washington State, can be assessed by identifying and predicting climate and environmental conditions that are favorable for bloom development and the accumulation of paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) in shellfish. When these favorable conditions occur in combination, a harmful algal bloom window of opportunity (HAB-WOO) exists for A. catenella. The original HAB-WOO was identified by Moore et al. (2009) for the time period 1993-2007. In general, it showed that warm air and water temperatures, low streamflow, low winds, and small tidal variability precede PST events. Here, we use the HAB-WOO model to examine (i) changes in the annual HAB-WOO duration over the period from 1967 to 2006, and (ii) the potential effect of future climate change on HAB risk through the late 21st century. The annual HAB-WOO duration increased between 1978 and 2006, as did the frequency and geographic extent of PST events. Two step-like changes occurred in 1978 and 1992 with higher annual values attained by the HAB-WOO compared to previous years. The 1978 step change may be related to the 1977 reversal of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation from cool to warm phase. Climate change projections from global climate models and regionally downscaled climate models for the Pacific Northwest are used to evaluate scenarios for the future HAB-WOO. Under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario (i.e., A1B), the annual HAB-WOO for A. catenella in Puget Sound is projected to increase by an average of 13 days by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, the annual HAB-WOO may begin up to 2 months earlier in the year and persist for up to 1 month later in the year compared to the present day. This research provides managers, health authorities, and shellfish growers in Washington State with critical information for anticipating climate impacts on toxic HABs in the Pacific Northwest now and in a future warmer climate. ' display_name: Past trends and future scenarios for environmental conditions favoring the accumulation of paralytic shellfish toxins in Puget Sound shellfish doi: 10.1016/j.hal.2011.04.004 files: [] href: http://52.38.26.42:8080/article/10.1016/j.hal.2011.04.004.yaml identifier: 10.1016/j.hal.2011.04.004 journal_identifier: harmful-algae journal_pages: 521-529 journal_vol: 10 notes: ~ parents: - display_name: 'NCA3 Chapter 21: Northwest' reference: /reference/f8911f98-5481-48f7-bef1-7900ae16f535 relationship: cito:isCitedBy uri: /report/nca3/chapter/northwest - display_name: 'Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment' reference: /reference/f8911f98-5481-48f7-bef1-7900ae16f535 relationship: cito:isCitedBy uri: /report/nca3 - display_name: "Chapter 6: Climate Impacts on Water-Related Illnesses (in 'The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment')" reference: /reference/f8911f98-5481-48f7-bef1-7900ae16f535 relationship: cito:isCitedBy uri: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/water-related-illnesses - display_name: 'The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment' reference: /reference/f8911f98-5481-48f7-bef1-7900ae16f535 relationship: cito:isCitedBy uri: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016 references: [] title: Past trends and future scenarios for environmental conditions favoring the accumulation of paralytic shellfish toxins in Puget Sound shellfish type: article uri: /article/10.1016/j.hal.2011.04.004 url: ~ year: 2011