A framework for examining climate-driven changes to the seasonality and geographical range of coastal pathogens and harmful algae

2015

Authors

• John Jacobs National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science
• Stephanie Moore University Corporation for Atmospheric Research , National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Northwest Fisheries Science Center
• Kenneth Kunkel Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC
• Liqiang Sun Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC

Data Producer

• World Climate Research Programme

Funding Agency

• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Description

Climate change is expected to alter coastal ecosystems in ways which may have predictable consequences for the seasonality and geographical distribution of human pathogens and harmful algae. Here we demonstrate relatively simple approaches for evaluating the risk of occurrence of pathogenic bacteria in the genus Vibrio and outbreaks of toxin-producing harmful algae in the genus Alexandrium, with estimates of uncertainty, in U.S. coastal waters under future climate change scenarios through the end of the 21st century. One approach forces empirical models of growth, abundance and the probability of occurrence of the pathogens and algae at specific locations in the Chesapeake Bay and Puget Sound with ensembles of statistically downscaled climate model projections to produce first order assessments of changes in seasonality. In all of the case studies examined, the seasonal window of occurrence for Vibrio andAlexandrium broadened, indicating longer annual periods of time when there is increased risk for outbreaks. A second approach uses climate model projections coupled with GIS to identify the potential for geographic range shifts for Vibrio spp. in the coastal waters of Alaska. These two approaches could be applied to other coastal pathogens that have climate sensitive drivers to investigate potential changes to the risk of outbreaks in both time (seasonality) and space (geographical distribution) under future climate change scenarios.

Climate Risk Management volume 8 pages 16-27

DOI : 10.1016/j.crm.2015.03.002

• 3 figures were derived from this article : figure usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016 6.4, figure usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016 6.5, figure usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016 6.7.
• 8 images were derived from this article : image 4bd6eba6, image e59ec3a7, image 6cd8f29d, image 2a9e3f67, image 8d2a3277, image a13e2c8e, image 8e2d830f, image be150c39.

Cited by finding 6.1,chapter appendix-1--technical-support-document,chapter 6,usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016,figure 6.4,figure 6.5, and figure 6.7. (reference: 8640a3db)